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Now It's On



We finally have closure to the LeBron James hoopla. It seemed like this endless media frenzy of analysis, conjecture, and criticism would be open-ended as long as a certain someone remained silent. After all, this certain someone is the standard by which everyone else is measured. For this guy to speak is to put all other statements and critiques to rest. And finally, His Airness himself, Michael Jordan, has spoken.

Everyone has been killing LeBron for joining with the best in the league to reach the mountain top instead of beating them for it. The damage to his legacy is seemingly irreparable, and he hasn't even played a game with the Heat yet. MJ weighed in this weekend essentially echoing the sentiments of everyone else.

The thing is, it carries a lot more punch when the best player ever to play your sport offers an opinion on your career. It also puts the rest of us out of our misery, wrapping up all the conversation with a perspective of someone who actually knows something about excellence in the NBA. I mean, what is there for anyone else to say? Jordan has spoken; who can surpass his opinion?

Charles Barkley is in agreement with MJ about LeBron. In fact, he went a step further and claimed that this move by LeBron means he will never be in the greatest player conversation.

The change he made was not an alpha dog move. It wasn't a winner's move. It was the move of a 25 year-old kid who, above the expectations of his career, simply wanted to enjoy this time of his life as much as possible. To him, that means sacrificing everyone's perception of him and damaging his legacy to play in a great city with close friends. To me, there's nothing wrong with that motivation. In fact, I admire LeBron for making that move, showing more transparency and personality in his decision (NOT transparency in his method, mind you) than we ever get from athletes.

For the record, I applaud LeBron for being true to himself and doing what he wants to do. That's so rare these days with the way that business and image management trump athletes' desires.

There are many reasons why his decision lost him respect basketball-wise, most of which are valid. But there are also a few reasons why his decision earned him respect personally, at least from me.
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July 20th 2010 @ 01:31

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Basketball
   


Dan Gilbert's Extreme Reaction

Was Dan Gilbert's letter heartfelt, or a ploy to drum up attention and sympathy for Cleveland?


So.....that happened.

LeBron jumped ship in F-you Cleveland fashion by announcing his decision on "The Decision." I didn't see the show, but I inevitably saw the highlights of it, and one thing stuck out to me. Did anyone else think that LeBron looked a little pudgy? He looked very, very round to me, but some close friends pointed out to me that his beard just made it appear that way.

Let's move on. I'm not here to critique or analyze the specific decision, because there's not really much to say. We knew he was choosing among 3-4 teams and that he'd have good reason to pick any one of them. I want to talk about Dan Gilbert's onslaught of cheap shots at LeBron. Here's a transcript of the letter he wrote for the Cavs' website subsequent to LeBron's announcement:

Dear Cleveland, All Of Northeast Ohio and Cleveland Cavaliers Supporters Wherever You May Be Tonight;

As you now know, our former hero, who grew up in the very region that he deserted this evening, is no longer a Cleveland Cavalier.

This was announced with a several day, narcissistic, self-promotional build-up culminating with a national TV special of his "decision" unlike anything ever "witnessed" in the history of sports and probably the history of entertainment.

Clearly, this is bitterly disappointing to all of us.

The good news is that the ownership team and the rest of the hard-working, loyal, and driven staff over here at your hometown Cavaliers have not betrayed you nor NEVER will betray you.

There is so much more to tell you about the events of the recent past and our more than exciting future. Over the next several days and weeks, we will be communicating much of that to you.

You simply don't deserve this kind of cowardly betrayal.

You have given so much and deserve so much more.

In the meantime, I want to make one statement to you tonight:

"I PERSONALLY GUARANTEE THAT THE CLEVELAND CAVALIERS WILL WIN AN NBA CHAMPIONSHIP BEFORE THE SELF-TITLED FORMER 'KING' WINS ONE"

You can take it to the bank.

If you thought we were motivated before tonight to bring the hardware to Cleveland, I can tell you that this shameful display of selfishness and betrayal by one of our very own has shifted our "motivation" to previously unknown and previously never experienced levels.

Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.

Sorry, but that's simply not how it works.

This shocking act of disloyalty from our home grown "chosen one" sends the exact opposite lesson of what we would want our children to learn. And "who" we would want them to grow-up to become.

But the good news is that this heartless and callous action can only serve as the antidote to the so-called "curse" on Cleveland, Ohio.

The self-declared former "King" will be taking the "curse" with him down south. And until he does "right" by Cleveland and Ohio, James (and the town where he plays) will unfortunately own this dreaded spell and bad karma.

Just watch.

Sleep well, Cleveland.

Tomorrow is a new and much brighter day....

I PROMISE you that our energy, focus, capital, knowledge and experience will be directed at one thing and one thing only:

DELIVERING YOU the championship you have long deserved and is long overdue....

Dan Gilbert

Majority Owner

Cleveland Cavaliers


Pretty scathing stuff right there. Even if Gilbert--and Cavs fans--feel this way, there's no good reason to verbalize it so publicly. Gilbert sounds like a hormonal pregnant woman who impulsively says things that she fully regrets after the fact, except that Gilbert's statement was premeditated and drafted. So there's that.

There's no confusion about how Gilbert feels in reaction to LeBron's decision on his TV special. Maybe that was done in some poor taste on LeBron's part. The argument can be made, though, that Gilbert and Cleveland have no right to feel the way they do. Everything LeBron said about his time with the Cavs, about taking them to new heights, bringing revenue to a depressed downtown, and offering hope for a championship...those things are all true. I don't think that is arrogance or pride or self-righteousness on LeBron's part. I think he's just shooting straight and being honest, which is something we always wish that athletes will do.

Gilbert's statement is unnecessarily vengeful and combative. In his crazed reaction, he makes a hasty promise that Cleveland will win a championship before LeBron does. And he means it. (Side note: I wonder if he looked at his current roster before making that promise).

He uses words like "betrayal", "disloyal", "shocking", "heartless", and "callous" to describe LeBron's decision to leave. Really Dan? Is it really an act of treason to bleed through seven years of terrible teammates and coaching for a superstar who craves to be the best? Did LeBron not sign an extension with your team with no guarantee or down payment on a viable roster? Did LeBron not bring your team from last in NBA attendance to 2nd during his tenure? LeBron was a free agent and was well within his rights to pick among suitors. And that's exactly what he did. Nothing traitorous or malicious about it.

This is all to neglect mentioning the incredibly fickle nature of Gilbert's reaction. If LeBron had said Cleveland instead of Miami, Gilbert would be singing his praises and telling us how much he loves LeBron for his loyalty and courage. Instead, it just feels like we got the prewritten hate speech instead of the prewritten love speech. The perspective in this situation is everything: love LeBron if he stays, hate him and lay him out if he leaves. Its a senseless contradiction that I would expect from a 13 year old.

Gilbert's shocking reaction shows a man in denial that his franchise just crumbled. It was way out of line, undeserved, and intentionally defamatory toward LeBron James. It makes you wonder if Gilbert really meant it.

Which brings me to an interesting theory. Is this a simple attention and sympathy grab by Gilbert? Was this carefully orchestrated (read: not heartfelt) to maximize the positive attention and pity toward the franchise? Is Gilbert a renegade who doesn't care what people think about him as long as it benefits his team? I would not rule any of these things out. The next question is, what is he trying to accomplish or get out of the stunt? There are no free agents left, he doesn't stand to benefit there. GMs, while possibly feeling bad for the Cavs, certainly won't make mercy trades with Cleveland at their own expense. I guess I don't really get what the point is, assuming that this theory checks out.

Anyways, those are my thoughts on Dan Gilbert's statement. After sleeping on it, I wouldn't be surprised if Gilbert regrets writing that letter, both because it is a black eye for his franchise, and because he really didn't mean the things he said about LeBron.

It will be interesting to see if a swift apology follows. Even more interesting will be the first time Miami visits Cleveland next season.
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July 9th 2010 @ 20:33

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Basketball
   


The Decision

Less than 24 hours from now, the final piece of this summer's free agent jigsaw will be set in place. What's funny is that the rest of the puzzle doesn't even have a shape until the exact shape of this one piece is determined. Instead of this piece fitting into the rest of the completed puzzle, the puzzle will form around the final piece.

The piece, of course, is LeBron James. LeBron's camp announced this week that he will deliver his decision on ESPN's airwaves in an hour long special to begin at 9 ET. That ESPN so easily relinquished its primetime scheduling--even in the slowest month of the sports year--to accommodate the hoopla is staggering. After a mostly meaningless weekend full of speculation and hearsay, the chips began to fall on Monday as the rest of the free agent class decided to get a piece of the pub before "The Decision" on Thursday. After all, the likes of Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, and Chris Bosh and D-Wade do not want to compete for attention with LBJ.

Conversely, LeBron is not about to let any marquee name announce a decision after he does. No one will choose their next team based on LeBron's decision. This is LeBron's ultimate act of control over this summer: to be the finale of the entire show. Nobody is going to force his hand or cause him to settle for anything less than his first choice. He's been catered to by practically every team in the Eastern Conference and patronized by all the big stars. Although LeBron will make his decision heavily on where he wants to be, there's no doubt that he's carefully weighing the moves that have come before him this week. Though we'll never hear his camp say it, we know that he has been dependent on the movement of Amare, Wade, Bosh, and Johnson from the word "go."

So where do we stand less than a day out from the conclusion of this fascinating week? Aside from Wade and Dirk, all the big fish have found new ponds to swim in. The biggest splash was made by Bosh, who unexpectedly decided to join Wade in Miami after we learned that Toronto would agree to send him to the Cavs (teaming him with LeBron) in a sign-and-trade. For whatever reason, Bosh never liked this option despite knowing that he could play with LeBron and get a max contract from a sign-and-trade that he couldn't get by signing as free agent elsewhere. Wade's return to Miami is unsurprising in spite of some serious flirting with Chicago and the Knicks.

Stoudemire and Joe Johnson don't care about winning; they just wanted to earn max contracts so they can be mentioned with the few max players in the league. For their decisions, they will get cap-straddled teams with very little potential of getting better. But really, any team that has Johnson or Stoudemire as their #1 is going nowhere anyways. It doesn't matter who you surround them with. Congrats to the Knicks and Hawks on their big free agent catches!

Boozer quietly and smartly chose the Bulls, who are good enough to win the East as they stand WITHOUT LeBron. If LeBron puts on a Bulls' hat tomorrow night....game over. Everyone else might as well mail in the next half decade, because the Bulls will win the East for several years in a row. The Bulls might not be done, either. As they stand, Ray Allen could take their mid-level exception (about $5.5 million) and fit right into the starting lineup. If they trade Luol Deng's $9 million contract, they could trot out Derrick Rose, Allen, Joe Alexander/James Johnson, Boozer, and Jo Noah. Phew. If they rope LeBron as well, he might overtake Alexander/Johnson to start at small forward. So look out for the Bulls in '10-'11 regardless of "The Decision."

Now that LeBron has seen Bosh and Wade join up, the idea of a trio in South Beach has to be enticing. There are a guaranteed several championships on that team if he goes there. So why isn't it a slam dunk that he's going to Miami, or even a probability? Because LeBron will not ride another star's coattails, much less come remotely close to the perception that he is. Are we sure that LeBron's greatness isn't more important to him than being the best by measure of championships? Are we sure that LeBron wouldn't rather stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago where he would be the unquestioned alpha dog? Are we sure that he doesn't want to go to the worst team in the NBA (New Jersey), hang with his guy Jay-Z, hit the club with Mikhail Prokhorov, play in a new arena, and resurrect a dead franchise on his own? Are we sure he doesn't want to switch leagues, fix the Clippers, and place himself close to Kobe Bryant, if only in proximity? I'm not sure any of these things isn't true.

We'll have answers to all these questions in less than 24 hours without LeBron so much as addressing them. When he makes his choice, we'll know everything.
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July 8th 2010 @ 06:04

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Basketball
   


A Summer Unlike Any Other



Above, we see a neutral image of LeBron James. We see this because, in less than 4 hours, he no longer has a contract. Because he doesn't have a contract, he doesn't have a team. LeBron James is a free agent.

So what, you ask? Oh nothing, just that the most coveted free agent class in the history of the NBA, led by the most coveted free agent in the history of pro sports, is about to commence.

This will get interesting.

Ever since LeBron signed a contract that was due to expire in the summer of 2010, the entire NBA--executives, GMs, and players--has jockeyed to somehow join forces with him on his next team. As a result of Free Agent LeBron, there has been a 2-year lead up of franchises trying to situate themselves to be in the best position possible to hook King James. During this time, the league has been flooded with unbalanced trades aimed at shedding salary, the assumption of bloated, but expiring, contracts, and the aversion of any long term commitments. Truly, the league and its fans have never seen a phenomenon like this. And it's all about LeBron.

LeBron, however, is not the only catch to be made once the calendar flips tonight. The list of superstar free agents is staggering: Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Rudy Gay, David Lee, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, and even more. I'm not counting or anything, but that list constitutes roughly half of the league's superstars. All free agents--in the same offseason. EVERYONE wants the chance to play with LeBron, or at least pick up the pieces of some devastated suitor in his wake.

Every free agent, except Chris Bosh, has been surprisingly mum on which teams they want to play for, to the point that the media, fans, and bloggers are subject to nothing more than guesswork. The guesswork is fun, but its still guesswork, and has no credible support. The time for guesswork is over. Once the free agent signing period opens, a select few people will gain the knowledge that the world needs to have, then give it to us on TV, the radio, and the Internet. Over the next few weeks, all of the unknowns will become known, and we presumably look upon a transformed landscape in the NBA.

With that, I'm going to offer my incompetent predictions as to where these guys are going.


LeBron James


Prognosticators have been prognosticating about where LeBron will land for over a year. First, the Knicks were almost a certainty. Then the Knicks faded and a possible alliance with Nets minority owner Jay-Z was expected. Then people thought LeBron's unusual sense of loyalty would keep him with his hometown Cavs. Finally, everyone has Chicago as the front-runner to sign him if he leaves Cleveland. I don't claim to know better than anybody else where he's going. However, a tiny, innocuous piece of news a few months ago might have strong implications that he will not stay in Cleveland. The news? LeBron filed an official request with the NBA to change his jersey number from 23 to 6, which is only necessary if a player is changing teams. In other words, LeBron doesn't need to go through the NBA to change his number if he's staying with his team.

This is a flashing neon sign that tells me LeBron is gone from the only team he has ever played for. Either that, or he's just trying to keep us on our toes. I have no idea, but I don't think he's staying in Cleveland.

Prediction: Flip a coin between Chicago and.....Chicago



Dwyane Wade

The Flash has not articulated anything about his plans, but most indicators point to him staying in Miami and recruiting Amare or Bosh very hard. Wade seems tied to the Heat and team President Pat Riley, and seems very unlikely to jump ship to join another star's team. He wants someone else to join his team, and the prospects of that look pretty good. Pay no attention to the possibility of a LeBron-Bosh-Wade trio in Miami that was floated earlier this week. It's most likely to me that Amare will flee the Suns to team up with Wade on South Beach.

Prediction: stays in Miami



Chris Bosh

Months ago, before Bosh started telling everyone that he wants to jump on Bron and Wade's coattails, there was strong rumor of a sign and trade that would send him to the Lakers in exchange for Andrew Bynum. This still seems like a strong possibility, as reported by Sekou Smith. The idea of a sign and trade with Bosh makes him a viable option to many more teams than if he were simply a free agent. Aside from the Laker rumor, Bosh has essentially intimated that he will wait to see where LeBron signs, then make his decision based on that information.

Whether this means that he will sign with that team or somewhere else is anyone's guess. My intuition is that he will follow LeBron, unless LeBron stays with Cleveland. All I know is that Bosh is even more of a lock to change teams than LeBron is. Bosh should sign up with LeBron or Wade if he doesn't get traded to the Lakers, because he hasn't shown that he can win as an alpha dog. I suspect he will go with LeBron.

Prediction: 60% chance to Chicago, 40% chance to Los Angeles



Amare Stoudemire

My favorite player is only being talked about in the context of two teams: the Suns and the Heat. He's certainly burned a lot of bridges in Phoenix with fans, with recently departed GM Steve Kerr, and with owner Robert Sarver. Whether the team wants him back remains to be seen, in spite of reports that the two sides are working on a new contract. I have thought from the beginning that if Amare were to opt out of his contract that teaming up with D-Wade in Miami would be a great duo to build around. With Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers as the only two players under contract for the Heat, they better hope they can retain Wade and rope another big name in free agency, or else Pat Riley is going to drive himself crazy filling out a roster with nobodies.

Prediction: Miami



Joe Johnson

JJ might be the biggest wild card. With the other big names, there seems to be a favorite or two that will likely win out. With Johnson, I can foresee him signing with any of 5 teams equally: Miami, the Knicks, the Nets, the Clippers, and the Mavs. Those with access seem pretty certain that he won't return to Atlanta, even if they offer him max money. Honestly, I think he would be smart to take a little less money if it means that he can team up with the likely combos of LeBron-Bosh or Wade-Stoudemire. Adding Johnson to either of those pairs would form you a stellar core. Reports have the Knicks as the favorite to land Johnson as they're already defaulting to Plan B in doubt of signing LeBron. And why not? He could score at his pleasure in that system, and he's played for Mike D'Antoni before.

Prediction: New York Knicks


Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk is 99.8% sure to be returning to the Mavs. So why did he opt out of the last year of his contract? With the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement next summer, many are anticipating that the players union will have to concede lower max contract salaries (and salaries in general) in order to avoid a lockout. Dirk opted out (1) to place himself in the company of the league's best players to at least give himself the chance to play with one or two of them and (2) to get paid while he can. Next summer he will likely be eligible to earn much less than he can now. Savvy move by Dirk, but he's not going anywhere. He and Mark Cuban like each other too much. They're the anti Stoudemire-Sarver.
See? These guys have too good a thing going to separate. In the .2% chance that Dirk leaves, Phoenix will be where he lands. The only person he likes more than Cuban is Steve Nash. He can play with Nash, but not Cuban.

Going nowhere - Dallas


Carlos Boozer

We all thought Boozer was going to get traded in 08-09 because of his early termination option last summer. He was the biggest fish on the trade market all season long, and nothing materialized. Summer came and we thought he was going to terminate his contract, but he didn't. He stuck with Utah, who seemingly wanted to get rid of him quickly to make room for Paul Millsap. Again this season we thought Boozer would be traded, but it never happened. So what am I getting at exactly? That every time we thought Booz was going to bolt or be traded, he stuck with the Jazz, and the Jazz stuck with him. This is one of the most stable organizations and best situations of any in pro sports, so why would he leave? The Jazz are fringe contenders every year, and Boozer is a big reason for that. We've seen him stay twice. What makes this time any different?

Prediction: Jazz


Paul Pierce and Ray Allen

Pierce just opted out of his contract to join the fun this week, but he's not going anywhere, partly because no one else would dare commit to him for more than 3 years, and because the Celtics will never let him get away. He's a Celtic for life.

Allen has lots of options because he could take the mid-level exception of about $6 million a year. The shelf life of a shooter like Allen is long, which makes his age a mitigated concern. He could hop on the wagon with any of the potential free agent combos to make a nasty core, but I think he's tied to this Boston team. With Doc Rivers now committed to coach next season, they seem determined to make one more run at a title before its all over. Besides if Ray leaves, KG might stalk him all summer with a machete in hand.

Prediction: Celtics



Rudy Gay

Executives in the league don't seem to like Rudy Gay all that much. Which means that Donald Sterling probably loves him! Rudy Gay and the Clippers, a perfect match! Gay isn't an acceptable consolation for whiffing on LeBron, which Sterling will inevitably do, but doesn't this have textbook Donald Sterling all over it?

Prediction: Clippers



David Lee


Lee seems like the kind of player that wouldn't latch on with a big name on another team. He seems like the guy who would replace the big name on his former team. I don't know what it is, but I just get that feeling from him. I think he could take less money to stay with the Knicks if they somehow sign Bosh and Johnson, otherwise he'll leave. Look for him to jump to Phoenix or Utah if their power forwards sign elsewhere.

Prediction: Knicks

We're about to go on a wild ride that could shift the NBA power centers. What happens starting at midnight will go down as perhaps the biggest event in NBA history.















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July 1st 2010 @ 02:51

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Basketball
   


100 Million Reasons to Leave




The developments out of Washington Redskins camp are increasingly bizarre. Mega star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, of multiple past behavioral issues, is up to his usual tricks.

In recent weeks, Haynesworth, who is entering the second of a 7 year, $100 million free agent contract with Washington, has expressed his displeasure with new coach Mike Shanahan's 3-4 defensive scheme. Haynesworth either (a) has a short memory or (b) doesn't give a rip about his team. Shanahan, if you remember, had great success using a 3-4 in Denver, winning two Super Bowls and frequently going to the postseason. So Haynesworth either forgot about Shanahan's track record and we should give him a reprieve, or he really only cares about getting his.

So far, Haynesworth has held out of all team workouts--most of them mandatory--in expressing his attitude toward a defensive scheme that will probably hurt him statistically. This is something that you're probably not happy about as an overpowering defensive tackle who eats offensive linemen up, but its also not something you fuss and hold out over. Haynesworth is so utterly wrapped up in his own success and numbers that he's willing to go to the great length of not playing in order to get his way.

In Washington's previous scheme, a 4-3, there are four down linemen and three linebackers. The more guys on the line, the better the chance of getting a one-on-one against a bigger, slower offensive lineman, and the better the chance of racking up big sack and tackle totals. In a 3-4, there are only 3 linemen up against five or six. There are two defensive ends bookmarking a single defensive tackle, who, when really good, will likely face constant double teams. With one less defender on the line, the offensive line can afford to allocate another blocker to contain a dangerous tackle. For more on the differences between the two schemes, click here. Here is a link to a blog from January that now looks prophetic.

Most of us left this behavior with our bowls of macaroni and cheese back at age 8, but Haynesworth apparently isn't finished acting like a child yet. The problem is, he's making big boy money. Washington said on Tuesday that the situation is so dire that they will seek to recoup the $21 million signing bonus they gave Haynesworth last year. Don't be surprised if they meet Haynesworth's request and work to trade their star lineman soon after.

The reason this case is somewhat atypical can be discovered by saying it out loud. A player is not playing because he doesn't like how his team's strategy. Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols would not stop playing if their teams decided that their new strategy was to have every batter bunt for base hits. Steve Nash doesn't refuse to play if his coach decides that he's not going to let his perimeter players shoot. Players don't quit when the strategy changes. They express distaste for the change, and maybe even demand a trade, but rarely does it amount to anything beyond that. Albert Haynesworth is jeopardizing his relationship with his team over a decline in his personal stats. No mention of the team, no expression of how it will effect everybody else. Just a concern for himself.

Sometimes these situations blow over without any real repercussions and the team salvages its chemistry and performance. This situation hasn't even played out yet, and I can tell from a mile away that there is no going back for either party. It doesn't matter how dominant Haynesworth is, the Redskins cannot afford such selfishness to pass through the locker room doors. He could end his hold out, throw on his jersey, and miraculously throw up 50 sacks this season and it still wouldn't be worth it. When selfishness is present, the outcome is always bad for the team. Period. This is why they have to trade him.

In the ultimate team game, Haynesworth is exercising the most individuality that he can. His actions imply that he cares about petty statistics and his legacy more than the success of his team. We hear speculation all the time that this is true of some players, but in this case, we already know its true.

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June 17th 2010 @ 02:47

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: NFL (America)
   


World Cup Preview



Every 4 years, I get real excited about following soccer for a month, and that time is now. The World Cup is not just for soccer fans, its for citizens who love a chance to root for their country in competition against others. There's something about international sports competition that galvanizes people to watch and take interests in things they normally couldn't care less about. I'm talking, of course, about competitions like Olympic swimming, gymnastics, figure skating, track & field, and women's softball.

For the average American watching the World Cup, its very unusual to enter into a crazed fanaticism for something that America doesn't lead in. For the rest of the world, the World Cup is less monumental because of the constant craze and appetite for soccer. Americans, who are less avid about the world's game, hype the World Cup much more than everyone else does, because of events that are considered much more important, like the UEFA Champion's League, Euro Cup, and each nation's respective league.

Let's get to the group by group breakdowns of a fairweather, bandwagon, uniformed soccer fan. Ready?

(I won't be offended if you decide that reading the rest of this would be an epic waste of your time.)


GROUP A

Projected Finish

1. France

FIFA's 9th ranked team is hungry after losing the 2006 World Cup Championship to Italy in PKs. Gone from that team is the controversial Zidane, who was the leader and icon of the French national team for the preceding decade. This team is left in the capable hands of striker Thierry Henry, midfielder Franck Ribery, and defender William Gallas. France needs to bring their best game in the group stage because this draw is no easy one. One loss could keep them from advancing with the strong teams from Mexico and Uruguay.

2. Mexico

After a frustrating draw in the Round of 16 in Germany against Argentina, Mexico is looking to advance into the late rounds to show its true strength. Aside from stars Giovani dos Santos, Carlos Vela, and Rafael Marquez, many of these guys play on clubs in Mexico or America, so the element of the unknown could be in play. This team must beat Uruguay or France if it hopes to advance to the Knockout stage.

3. Uruguay

This team enters the World Cup at 16 in FIFA's rankings, but did not qualify in 2006. Inexperience could be a factor, and there is no time to adjust to the intensity of the game when your opening games are against France, Mexico, and the South African hosts.

4. South Africa

The hosts are the unquestioned weakest team in this tournament and probably robbed a much stronger team from qualifying. This team is crucial to a nation like South Africa for unity and national pride. Because of everything that has gone down in the last 20 years and how far the nation has come, the home field advantage could be historically strong. Playing behind a raucous crowd, I would not be shocked if the team pulled a major upset in the group stage to spoil someone's trip.



GROUP B

1. Argentina

Lionel Messi, arguably the world's best player, leads one of the major contenders through a group that shouldn't give the team too much trouble. This squad is loaded with young guns like Messi, Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain, and experience. Argentina's chances to win the Cup are as good as anyone.

2. Greece

The Greeks have the look of somebody who doesn't belong at the party. After drawing a weak qualifying pot, Greece barely advanced past the likes of Latvia, Israel, Luxembourg, and Moldova. When tested in qualifying, Greece lost twice to winner Switzerland. The team does have talent in forwards Theofanis Gekas and Angelos Charisteas who will propel them into the Round of 16.

3. South Korea

This team owns Asia, having qualified for its seventh straight World Cup out of the region's qualifying stage. The technical skill of this team has helped them achieve surprising success against more talented teams, like Portugal, Italy, and Spain in the 2002 Cup, and a draw with France in 2006. Ranked only 47th in FIFA, the South Koreans won't out-athletic anyone, but might out-discipline their way past the group stage.

4. Nigeria

The Super Eagles have a shallow history in the World Cup, never finishing better than 9th. It's hard to tell how good this team is in spite of its 21st FIFA rank, because they went undefeated in qualifying against a ho-hum continent and never faced Cameroon or Egypt. This team may be more talented than Greece and South Korea are, but Greece may be better equipped and experienced for this setting.


GROUP C

1. England

This team is poised to win its first World Cup since 1966. Given the expectations that surround this team every World Cup, the slew of 6th-8th place finishes is cause for depression.
Wayne Rooney leads an English squad with expectations high
This team is so stacked that a quarterfinal finish is not satisfactory as it is for most other qualifiers. England looks to avenge a crushing quarterfinal loss in PKs to Portugal with a loaded roster that includes names like Crouch, Gerrard, Lampard, Rooney, Wright-Phillips, and Cole (Joe and Ashley). Every player on this roster plays in the best league in the world, the English Premier League, and there is again no excuse for this team losing early.





2. United States

I've said it before: this team thrives when the expectations deflate. Entering 2006 Germany, this team was soaring with swagger and a FIFA ranking of 5th. To everyone's shock and horror, the Americans were eliminated in the group stage.
The U.S. hopes rest largely on Jozy Altidore's tender ankle
To be fair, they drew the famed Group of Death that included Italy, Ghana, and the Czech Republic. Four years later, the ranking has fallen to a still respectable 14th, and the grassroots soccer movement has progressed. Talent pumps through the veins of the U.S. Soccer program, and it appears that there is finally enough talent to compete on the world stage. The knock on the Americans, as always, is that the technical skills are lacking. The draw this time around is weaker, and the Red, White, and Blue should advance.

3. Slovenia
4. Algeria


GROUP D

1. Germany

The Germans are a traditional power with the arguable most decorated World Cup history. Three Cups, four times runners-up, quarterfinals or better in 14 straight tournaments. There might be no team with better chemistry than these guys, with 8 players from the the club team Bayern Munich, three from Werder Bremen, and three from Stuttgart. The fact that the players know each other's tendencies will be an advantageous factor. Noticeably absent is the legendary Michael Ballack, who was left off the roster because of an ankle injury. The 33 year old's leadership is unquestioned, but the German roster is more than talented enough to withstand the loss and still win.

2. Serbia

Serbia is back after a disappointing last place finish in the 2006 Cup, Serbia went 7-1-2 in qualifying, winning a pot that included France. If nothing else, this team has proven that it can play with the powers, having drawn France in that qualifying stage.

3. Australia

The "Socceroos" are playing in just their third World Cup, having entered their best soccer stretch in national team history. The advancement to the Round of 16 was a huge confidence booster for this team, and they were competitive every step of the way in the 2006 tournament. A 1-0 loss to Brazil is all that kept this team from being the headline story for the entire event. Opposite the Germans, a splintered roster of players from all over the club soccer world keeps this team from experiencing familiarity. The second advancer from this group may come down to the match between Serbia and Australia.

4. Ghana

Ghana looks to build on its impressive showing in the 2006 Group of Death, in which it made the Round of 16. Not an established soccer power in Africa, Ghana would love to break into that conversation with Egypt, Cameroon, and the Ivory Coast. It is possible that Ghana could advance past Serbia and Australia, because Group D seems very muddled after the titan Germany.


GROUP E

1. Netherlands

I love the alternate solid Orange kit that the Dutch sport. My favorite jerseys in the world, and one of the main reasons why the Netherlands was my team of choice to play with in EA Sports FIFA World Cup 2006. This team has lost twice in the Final, but has a surprisingly short World Cup history behind it. Names like van Bommel, van Persie, and Robben give this team a great chance to advance far into the tournament. The best Round of 16 game in 2006 was this team vs. Portugal, which was a tough luck match up for the Dutch. They're out for blood this time.

2. Cameroon

"The Indomitable Lions" haven't advanced through the group stage since a quarterfinal finish 20 years ago in Italy. Supremacy in Africa is on the line for this team as it fights to stay on top. Advancing through this stage should be no problem.

3. Denmark
4. Japan


GROUP F

1. Italy

One of the world's best teams leads the Cup's worst group into competition. The 2006 Champion may not have to flip the switch until the Round of 16 with the way this group shapes up. This team's defense is its defining characteristic, having allowed just two goals in 2006. Names like Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Gattuso, Pirlo, and Camoronesi return from the 2006 team to occupy the back and midfield, leaving the Italians in a great spot for the Knockout round.

2. Paraguay

Not a lot to expect from this team, but it did have a great qualifying, beating Argentina, Peru, Brazil, and Uruguay en route to third place in South America. That indicates to me that either (a) those teams were taking it easy in qualifying, or (b) Paraguay has some legit upset potential.

3. Slovakia
4. New Zealand


GROUP G

1. Brazil

The world's best team leads the Cup's most competitive group, where one team that is skilled enough to make the top 16 will not make it. Brazil will not be that team. With a record 5 World Cup titles, Brazil's success is deep and unprecedented in this tournament. Expect them to play into the second week of July somewhere past the semifinals.

2. Portugal

I almost put Portugal to win this group over Brazil. They'll both beat the other two teams, so it really comes down to their head-to-head match,
which is far and away the best group stage game in the tournament. Portugal looks a little younger than Brazil and had a markedly better run in the months before South Africa. Another big factor is that one of the world's 3 best players, Cristiano Ronaldo, wears the Portuguese uniform. His presence alone could be the difference between first and second in this group.


3. Ivory Coast

This team got a tough luck draw with two of the 3 best teams in the world.
Amazingly, Drogba might play in Ivory Coast's opener
Remarkably, Drogba is being considered for the team's opening match against Portugal just 12 days after the injury, according to a USA Today report Adding injury to insult, Côte d'Ivoire's best player, forward Didier Drogba, broke his arm in a friendly just 6 days ago. The Ivory Coast is going to need Drogba if it wants to advance, and they're going to need him playing at his best, whether 100% healthy or not.

4. North Korea

Making its 2nd qualification ever, the North Korean team faces a daunting task. As the lowest ranked team at 105, this team has little chance of challenging any of the three great teams in the group.


GROUP H

1. Spain

I was wrong. This is the best group in the tournament, with no team ranked worse than 38th. Spain is the prohibitive favorite to win the group and quite possibly the entire tournament. The Round of 16 loss to France was just one more in a frustrating sequence of eliminations in Spain's quest for that first World Cup title. The team has qualified for the Cup 8 straight times and has moved into the quarterfinal another handful of times, but never into the title game. The Spanish are in the midst of a mindnumbing streak of success: since winning a friendly against England in February 2007, the national team has lost one time in 47 matches. This streak encompasses wins against several of the world's top 10 teams in 2-0 or 3-0 fashion. When we talk about dominance in sport, this is the kind of streak that we're talking about. This team has it flowing like no national team ever has before, and many think that it will carry on through to Spain's first World Cup title. The one loss during that streak? To the United States in 2009's Confederation's Cup. Possible foreshadowing? Probably not.

2. Chile

One of the premier South American teams draws a very competitive group after a good qualifying session. If Chile can survive the group stage, I'm considering them a primary darkhorse to steal the show in Knockout. This team doesn't lose to inferior teams, and knows how to put teams away when ahead. The roster is one of the freshest and youngest in the tournament, which is high risk/high reward in my opinion. However, all bets are off in the World Cup with the experience argument, because of how delicate every run, every foul, and every corner is. One bounce can make or break a team's chances to advance. Essentially, every team is high risk in that kind of setting, so I'll take the young and explosive roster over other teams who have more experience.

3. Switzerland

The only team is 2006 to not allow a regulation goal, the Swiss are back to make their mark on the Round of 16. Another young roster bodes well in a tourney full of grizzled vets. A more informed soccer fan could tell you the differences between Chile and this team and who has a better chance to advance, but I can't. My qualifier is that any of the bottom 3 teams in this draw could take the 2nd spot and belong in the Round of 16.

4. Honduras

This is one of the 3 best teams in the CONCACAF region making its 2nd World Cup appearance. Let's put it this way, when Honduras is the 4th best team in your group, your group is stacked. This team could finish second in many of the other groups, and could conceivably do so here. It will be an uphill battle for Los Catrachos, but I won't be surprised if they move on.


The group stage has a lot of promise and will be riveting to watch. As we advance into the later stages, I'll come back with a little bigger body of soccer knowledge and reset the stage. Enjoy the futbol!
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June 10th 2010 @ 23:23

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Soccer
   


The Most Anticipated Arrival



This week one year ago, Stephen Strasburg was drafted #1 by the Washington Nationals out of San Diego State. He set a new precedent of media hype that reached a whole different level than anyone before him. Now, Strasburg was clearly the best player in the First-Year Player Draft of 2009, but I had serious reservations as to just how much everyone was gushing about him. I wrote that nobody--not even the most hyped prospect in baseball history--was worth the millions that the draft pick payment scale mandates. Strasburg signed for $15.1 million right before the deadline in August, and was officially a National. I became even more critical after the franchise committed so much to invest in a 21 year old prospect with no guarantee of panning out. I was annoyed that for the next 8 months until his debut we'd have to hear all about how legendary Strasburg will be, see the same San Diego State bullpen videos on loop, and receive instant updates on all his minor league starts against 30 year old baseball lifers.

Well, in a sport where living up to the hype is so statistically rare, Strasburg met and exceeded it in his first start for Washington on June 8. His final line: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 14 K, 0 BB. Read that again....14 strikeouts!!!!!!!!!!!!! In his first major league start!!!!!!! This guy looks so good that he needs zero adjustment time to major league hitting. Granted, he pitched against the Pirates, but he was completely overpowering with his triple-digit fastball, 90 MPH changeup, and filthy slider.

Not only did he have the repertoire to be dominate, but he seems to know how to use it. This is just as important as raw talent, and is what makes a baseball player so dang hard project. You can have all the speed in the world like Rafael Furcal, but if you're injury prone or can't get on base, speed is worthless. You can be blessed with great size and arm strength like Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, but without the right mentality and toughness, you'll flame out. You can be the most gifted with the glove and the bat like B.J. Upton and J.D. Drew, but without a competitiveness and drive to get better, you will underachieve.

Strasburg has the physical brilliance like the above names and countless other MLB hopefuls. What separates him from the crowd, however, is a maturity level, an intelligence, and a toughness that seem to characterize a rare brilliant few. In any game, but in baseball especially, the intangibles and mental skills are every bit as vital to success as the tangibles and physical skills.

Needless to say, I'm sold on Strasburg. I'm not usually one to make snap judgments about things, and would typically need to see a little bigger sample size to make an evaluation on a player. Strasburg is different. He is transcendent and utterly dominant at 21 years old. Ladies and gentlemen, Stephen Strasburg has arrived, and he is ready to own the CY Young race for the next 10 years.
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June 9th 2010 @ 22:28

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Other Sports
   


The Dependables

Derek Fisher is about the most anyone can count on in these Finals


Writing after 3 NBA Finals games, I refuse--vehemently refuse--to dignify the officiating by making this post about how bad the reffing situation is in the NBA.

In a series full of up-and-down rollercoaster inter-game performances, I instead want to highlight a couple of the very few consistencies that have impacted all three games. There are a lot of obvious players you can look to that might fit the bill, so let's systematically eliminate some of the more popular choices.

Undependable: Kobe Bryant

I'm shooting to kill. Cutting the head of the snake. (Insert cliche to the same effect here). After scalding the net in the Phoenix series, Kobe is shooting just 39% from the field on nearly 24 shots per game through the series first 3 games. Along with his steep decline in scoring efficiency is a rise in turnovers, over 3 per game in the Finals. His other per game stats have not noticeably slipped; he's just taking a lot more shots to get to his 26.6 a game. Further, his 5 fouls in Game 2 dictated that he change his attack dramatically, and can be partially credited with the Laker choke at home. In Game 3, Kobe nearly shot the Lakers out of another win, hoisting at least ten ill-conceived shots out of 29 total and completely stifling any offensive life in his teammates. Also, let's not overlook Kobe's defensive lapses while guarding Rajon Rondo for some crucial stretches in the Celtics' Game 2 steal. No excuse for allowing that triple-double while collecting 5 (phantom) fouls.

Undependable: Kevin Garnett

By virtue of his no-show in Game 2 and par Game 1. Let's face it, if KG is locked in like he was in Game 3 (25 points, 11-16 FG), the Celtics are infinitely tougher to beat than when he's not. Even more, having to focus on stopping Garnett in turn helps Garnett stop Gasol and Bynum from getting going offensively.

Undependable: Lamar Odom

Everyone knows Lamar Odom is inconsistent and undependable. I couldn't resist tossing him into this list anyway.

Undependable: Ray Allen

The award for Biggest Rollercoaster Finals Performance Through Three Games goes to Jesus Shuttlesworth. After going for 32 points in Game 2 en route to breaking the Finals record for converted three-pointers with eight, Allen threw up a near-record for shooting futility. Just two nights after implanting the fear of God into the Staples Center, Ray could be seen shooting an unfathomable 0-13 FG and 0-8 3PT on his home floor in a tie series. He essentially undid any good from Game 2 with his off night in Game 3. Ray is one of my favorite guys in the NBA and a real stand up, class act. In spite of my elation as a Laker fan, I was truly pained to watch him struggle like that as one of the best humans and shooters to ever bless the NBA.

Undependable: Paul Pierce

PP hasn't been himself all series long--and that's coming from a guy who mortally detests him since The Fakeout (the foreign dialog adds about 35% hilarity to the comic value of the clip). He had a good Game 1, but he hasn't shot the ball well since then, and has struggled mightily to get his high post game going.
Why the pained face Paul? Did you miss a jumper or just get carried off the court?
Two years ago, that was where the Celtics went when they needed a basket or a run. This time, it seems like Ron Artest is really getting Pierce out of his game, which really, really hurts Boston.

When those four guys aren't the constants in a playoff series, you know you're watching something peculiar. If four of the 5 best players in the series are disqualified from being dependable, then who the heck is qualified?






Dependable: Rajon Rondo

He's officially grabbed the torch as the best player on the Celtics. Two years removed from the enigmatic, inexperienced version of himself, Rondo is now the most dominant player on the court every night. No question that he's been the best player in the series through Game 3. His triple-double in Game 2 is the only thing that has preserved any drama in this series, not to mention Boston's chance of winning. With even 90% of what he did in Game 2, the Celtics probably lose that game and are down 3-0. They need every bit of brilliance that Rondo provides. Is it amazing that this guy still doesn't have a nickname after 2 straight incredible seasons? Were it not for his complete defensive absence down the stretch in Game 3, the Celtics could possibly have the 2-1 lead. More on that defensive lapse in a minute.

Dependable: Abhorrent Reffing

I promised at the start that I wouldn't dignify this. Hold.....strong.....stay..... ............................. ............................. ............................. .....................strong

Dependable: Ron Artest

That is, you can always depend on Ron to be historically bad (39% for the playoffs) from the perimeter. He has shot over 50% from the field in only 6 games this postseason, and if you remove the totals from those games, he's shooting a robust 31%. If you can depend on Ron to be an offensive life-sucker, you can count on him to be just as good on defense. If the Lakers can win the title, the confusion/frustration/physica lity against Paul Pierce is worth all the trouble he creates on offense.

Dependable: Lamar Odom

You can always depend on Lamar Odom to be the most inconsistent player over 7 games in any series. He'll score 8 points in 36 minutes with ten fouls over two games, then come back and give you 12 huge points on 5-5 shooting with a deceivingly-important-for-mom entum banked three. I continue to assert that when Lamar Odom has it going off the bench, the Lakers are darn near unbeatable.

Dependable of Dependables: Derek Fisher

I have been one of the blogosphere's most passionate advocates for Fisher to be benched in favor of younger, more athletically gifted guards Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar. During the regular year and into the playoffs, the Lakers are always mismatched at point guard. It's one of the defining characteristics of the team: weak point guard play. I have complained that Fisher misses too many open shots and cannot stay in front of bigger or quicker scoring guards like Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russ Westbrook, and Chris Paul. When Phil Jackson opts for Farmar or Brown in end-of-game situations, I always feel more confident.

Apparently, my memory is short and fickle regarding Playoff Fish.

After Game 3, what can we say about Fish? The box score is unimpressive: 16 points on 6-12 FG, 1 AST, 3 REB, 5 fouls, 0 STL. The truth is, the impact of Fisher's clutch cannot be quantified by any box score line. With his team's offense sputtering and going into Stand-And-Watch-Kobe-Hoist-Te legraphed-Jumpers mode, Fisher did what he's built a reputation for in recent years: take and sink a few gigantic shots. After checking in at the 9:45 mark of the fourth quarter and his team's lead down to just one, Fisher went 5-7 for 11 of his 16 points, including two floaters in traffic and the game-clinching layup plus foul inside one minute to play. Kobe's numbers in that 4th quarter? 1-6 for 4 points. Look again, the Lakers survived a close NBA Finals game on the road against their most hated rival when Kobe scored one basket in his favorite time to close out games. It was as if Fisher was following Kobe around and saying after his bad misses, "Don't worry man, I'll pick you up. I got this." The Lakers 18-point lead was whittled down to one, but Boston never grabbed the lead after Fisher re-entered the game.

No more will I be so mercurial in my attitude toward Fisher. All the regular season ineptitude and ugliness is unequivocally worth his clutch dependability in the playoffs. His list of game-changing/game-clinching playoff shots is too long to list, most notably, .4. Frankily, I can't even remember a lot of them. Like Fish, these shots seem to blend into the background of Laker success, their impact never fully appreciated for how vital they are. I will say this for certain: the Lakers are nowhere without several big jumpers from Fisher in each of the four rounds in 2010's playoffs. His postgame interview betrays a man who seems to constantly keep life and basketball in perspective, which is part of what makes him arguably the best human being in the NBA.

(For those of you eager for me to gripe about the refs, I'm still processing the futility and incompetence we've seen thus far. I'll try and touch on it later or sometime after the Finals end)

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June 9th 2010 @ 08:10

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Basketball
   


Here We Go Again



The 2010 NBA Finals are finally upon us. After 6 weeks of drama and surprises, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics are the two left standing. The improbable matchup is a win situation for everyone involved: the NBA, ESPN/ABC, the fans, and the teams themselves. The unparalleled history between the NBA's two premiere franchises runs deep. The Celtics are the most successful team in NBA history, with 17 championships. The Lakers are right behind them in title count, with 15. Including 2010, the Lakers have played in a staggering 31 of 64 NBA Finals. The Celtics won 11 of 13 championships from the late 1950s-mid 1960s, a dynasty unmatched in any sport. Bad blood still flows from a chippy and intense 2008 series, which went to the Celtics in 6 games.


How we got here

Boston grabbed the 4 seed in the East and drew D-Wade's Miami Heat in the first round. Through the filter of my expectations, the Celtics hurdled the Heat a little better than I anticipated, winning in 5 games. Garnett's knee problems started to be forgotten as he performed well.

In the East Semis, we got a ridiculous matchup of Celtics-Cavaliers by virtue of Boston's seemingly low seed. Nothing in this matchup signaled to me that Boston had a chance to win four of seven over LeBron. At the time, the Cavs looked like the best team in the league and had the look that a team gets when it's destined for the Finals. Well, the Celtics dismantled and out-hustled the Cavs en-route to a shocking 6-game upset. As the final ticks came off the clock in Game 6, it looked like the Celtics had completely demoralized the Cavs and forced them into submission. Boston had the ball up by 2-3 possessions with the game still in reach, and the Cavs didn't know what to do. They could have fouled, but they didn't, but they looked uncomfortable standing on the court while the Celtics ran out the clock on their season. The Celtics looked like the 2008 team: superior cohesion, unmatched intensity, an overpowering will, and a defense effort so strong that it is usually offensive to NBA players. Kevin Garnett also looked like his 2008 clone as he obliterated Antawn Jamison on both ends of the court.

The Conference Finals brought Boston to Orlando. The Magic had yet to lose a postseason game heading into the Boston series and was everyone's revised favorite to rematch the Lakers in the Finals. There was so much more to like about the Magic than the Celtics, but Boston was determined. They stole home court advantage by taking both games in Orlando and the first in Boston for a 3-0 lead. The only time Orlando had success was when Boston got a little bored and lost intensity in Games 4 and 5.
Interesting correlation: Rajon Rondo's transcendent play noticeably dipped in these two games. Not surprised that Boston lost. The buck stopped in Game 6 when Boston did what championship teams do and said to Orlando, "You're not going any farther. We're stopping you here no matter what it takes. You will not beat us again." In blowout fashion, the Celtics closed the series on their home floor in what was a terribly boring and anticlimactic game. This is a characteristic of title teams, they suck all the drama out of games that the other team must win. They step on the opponent's throat and give them no chance to win.


The LA Lakers have been a rollercoaster ride throughout the playoffs. Everyone just expects the Lakers to beat everybody else in short order. So when they traveled to Oklahoma City for Games 3 and 4 in the first round, the world watched in horror (or delight) as Oklahoma City embarrassed LA and really exposed the weaknesses of the Defending Champs. The Lakers, for the first time since the Pau Gasol trade in 2008, looked old. Not only that, but good/raw/high ceiling players like Thunder PG Russell Westbrook looked like All-Stars against the Laker defense. Derek Fisher couldn't defend Carrie Fisher. Ron Artest made 18% of his three-pointers. Again, as championship teams do, the Lakers regrouped, blew OKC out at home in Game 5, then escaped the Thunder on Pau Gasol's last-second putback in Game 6. Counter-intuitively, the Thunder would be arguably pose the biggest threat to LA's repeat bid, and they met in the first round.

There isn't much novel to say about the Lakers-Jazz Western Semifinal series, except that the Lakers looked dominant. Utah is a good, good team. Nobody in the NBA is capable of sweeping the Jazz except for the Lakers, for whatever reason. The Lakers swept, embodied a championship urgency and drive--rare for them--and marched into a Pacific Division showdown with the Nash's Suns.

The Lakers-Suns series was wildly entertaining and dramatic. Off the top, it is relevant to note how horribly egregious the officiating was in this series. The Lakers benefited when on their home court, but not remotely as much as Phoenix did on theirs. It was as if Commissioner Stern called from NBA headquarters and told the refs, "We need this series to go long. This series is going at least 6 games, and you're going to make it happen." What? You think this doesn't happen in the NBA? I'm telling you, its not nearly as impossible as you think it is. LA won both games at home, shooting a blistering near-60% from the field and averaging about 125 points. Things changed when the series shifted to the U.S. Airways Center as Amare Stoudemire came alive, the Suns killed the Lakers in free throw margin, and a creative zone by Suns coach Alvin Gentry stunned the Lakers into settling for too many jump shots. The Suns held serve at home, sending the series back to LA for Game 5. The Lakers came out strong in Game 5, storming to an 18 point lead in the first half. This game was a mirror image of the OKC Game 5, we'll dub it The Regroup Game. The Suns showed 8 different kinds of moxie and poise, chipping away at the lead down the stretch until a wild possession of offensive rebounds and a Jason Richardson bank three tied the game at 101 with 5 seconds remaining. Kobe got the ball, threw up an airball, and the most unlikely of heroes, Ron Artest-Rodman, snatched it out of the air, turned from under the basket, and banked home a 3-footer just shy of the buzzer for the win. Euphoria ensued, the Lakers celebrated awkwardly around Artest, fans couldn't believe the turn of events. Game 6 was again roundly controlled by the Lakers and a pathologically locked-in Kobe Bryant (33.7 pts, 7.2 reb, 8.3 ast, 51.2% FG for the series), and the Suns finally succumbed in a hard fought match with their rival.


Where we are now

A grudge match between the NBA's most storied franchises. The Celtics are on a roll, looking more active and healthy than any time in the last 18 months. The Lakers are a bit older and more tested. They have the championship swagger and the burden of defending their title. The question of their toughness that surfaced in the 2008 Finals remains unsolved. The Celtics were better in 2008 and, objectively, the Lakers look slightly better this time around.

The Celtics will bring their patented tough defense and must slow down the hot-shooting Bryant. Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum must have a large impact on both ends of the floor to contain Kevin Garnett, control the glass, and ease Kobe's offensive load. The Lakers might try to speed the pace in order to get into a scoring match and avoid a game governed by defense, the Celtics' strength. Boston will look to bump and bang the Lakers in an attempt to make them timid and hesitant, which worked beautifully in 2008.

Two major differences from 2008, one on each side. Paul Pierce was a matchup nightmare for the Lakers in the last series. The Lakers ' Bryant, Trevor Ariza, and Lamar Odom all were misfits against the plodding but agile Pierce. This time around, LA has a potential antidote in Artest, who can match the size, strength, and physicality of Pierce in his favorite spot at the elbow. The result of this matchup has significant bearing on the outcome of the series at large.

The other major change is Rajon Rondo's place in the Celtic hierarchy. Two years ago, he was in his second season and first as a starter in a lineup with 3 future Hall of Famers. He navigated his way through the playoffs, getting better every series and being careful to appease the superstars at every point. He wasn't perfect, but he was good enough for Boston to win the title, and definitely contributed positively. Now in his fourth season, Rondo has solidified himself as a top 5, maybe top 3, point guard in the NBA. His versatility and physical gifts are unique, even in a world with Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Derrick Rose. He is a nightly threat for a triple-double, and has drastically improved his offensive arsenal to the point that you have to pay attention to him on the perimeter. But if you do that, he'll burst by you to the basket, where he finishes and dishes highlight reel passes equally well. No longer is he someone whose success the Lakers are surprised by; Rondo's impact is now at the forefront of Phil Jackson's game plan.

Kevin Garnett has hooked up to the rejuvenation machine in this postseason. His game isn't one that typically declines over time because of its fade away, jump shooting, finesse nature. In other words, Kevin Garnett can jump and shoot from the power forward position at 33 as well as he did at 27. His resurgence is largely responsible for Boston's upset run to the Finals over two "better" teams. This won't happen for the sake of continuity, but if I'm Phil Jackson, I'm thinking long and hard about starting Lamar Odom in this series and putting him on Garnett to start, with Bynum coming in to relieve him. Gasol, as hard a time as he's had in shedding the "soft" label, should be fine on Kendrick Perkins because of his small offensive role. Whoever he's guarding, Gasol has to be a monster on the defensive glass in this series, a place where the Lakers got killed 2 years ago.

Of utmost importance to the Celtics is how to stop Kobe. Gone is James Posey, their best attempt at a Kobe stopper from 2008. Posey was largely effective in harassing Kobe and generally throwing him out of his rhythm, and Paul Pierce was serviceable in relief of Posey as well. The Celtics best hope is to start Pierce on Kobe, then throw Tony Allen at him off the bench. Kobe has completed his transition into a full-fledged killer in the post, an evolution that was incomplete in 2008. He's also proven to be just as deadly from the perimeter in this postseason, and has looked ever so spry since getting his knee drained a few weeks ago. This is the number one priority for Doc Rivers and defensive guru Tom Thibodeau: stopping Kobe. Given the defenders he's got, I don't think Rivers can do it. Not this time.

Other things to watch for: Bynum and his mangled knee, Ray Allen's incredible sharpshooting, Shannon Brown's effectiveness off the bench, Rasheed Wallace's impact, and Glen Davis' health and productivity off the Boston bench. Bench play will be a huge factor while the starters rest. With every star player in this series over 32 years old, the bench and other role players (Odom, Artest, Brown, Fisher for the Lakers and Wallace, Robinson, Tony Allen, Davis, and Perkins for the Celtics) have huge responsibility and impact when they are on the floor.

Keys to Success

Boston
--Win Game 1 or 2 on the road
--Muscle up on the Lakers' big men (especially Gasol)
--Pressure the point guards and attack them on offense
--Funnel Kobe into help defense
--Don't let Lamar Odom get going. When Lamar Odom is going well, the Lakers are virtually unbeatable
--Slow the pace and make the Lakers play half court offense
--Give Rondo room to operate on Fisher and Farmar and spread the paint, enabling him to create
--Make Bynum move on defense

Los Angeles
--HOLD HOME COURT at all costs. Phil Jackson's teams are 45-0 when winning Game 1 of a playoff series
--Contain Rondo and Pierce
--Put Kobe on Rondo and Fisher on Ray Allen to start
--Do everything possible to get Lamar Odom going on offense and on the defensive glass
--Control the rebounding margin
--Make the jump shooters (Allen and Garnett) beat you, not the finisher/slashers (Pierce and Rondo)
--Push the pace, don't let Boston set up their half court defense
--Give Kobe room to operate, but don't stand around and watch him

Which ever team does more of these things correctly will win the series, its that simple. The Lakers weren't anticipating home court advantage if they were to advance to the Finals, but Boston's upsets of Cleveland and Orlando have given that advantage to the Lakers. LA will tell you the home court doesn't matter enough to make a difference, but they couldn't be happier about it. The Lakers are 28-3 in their last 31 home playoff games, and haven't lost in 8 home games this postseason. Phil's teams are literally unbeatable when winning Game 1 in the series, so it is imperative that Boston steals Game 1 on Thursday night. I think the Lakers are a better team and are better prepared for everything the Celtics will throw at them than they were in 2008. The Lakers have fared miserably against the Celtics in the Finals, with a 2-9 record in 11 championship series dating back to the 1960s Russell-West/Baylor teams. If this series has taught us anything, though, its that you can throw all the numbers, trends, and stats out the window. Kobe is the mentally strongest and most competitive player in the series and has discovered how to win without Shaq. There is no worry about the Lakers will to win; they are properly motivated to pay the Celtics back and to defend their crown. Boston is playing fantastically cohesive basketball and truly peaking at the perfect time. This series can go either way, but the Laker home court advantage is grounds enough for me to pick with my heart.

Lakers in 7


This series is well matched and these players and coaches know each other very well. The NBA's most decorated and beloved rivalry is ready to tip off its latest installment. Are you?
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June 2nd 2010 @ 22:00

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Basketball
   


There Is Hope for Soccer




The UEFA Champion's League concluded Saturday with Inter Milan taking the title in victory over Bayern Munich.

Usually this event would go off without so much as a ripple in the stream of U.S. sports consciousness while being one of Europe's most popular events. For as long as anyone can remember, Americans have not cared about soccer. This shows up in youth leagues, sales, TV coverage, and more.

This collective apathy might be on its way out. That the Champion's League final occurred is not as newsworthy as the fact that it was televised nationally in the U.S. FOX, whose coverage of anything aside from MLB and NFL is lackluster, did a satisfactory job carrying the event. Many thought the match would carry a rating of at least 2.0, as compared to the 2008 match on ESPN that carried a minuscule 0.8. The ratings have not been released yet, but the predictions and weekend time slot are indicators that Americans are hungry for soccer.

What's causing this change in appetite? Why is it happening now? These are questions that I cannot answer intelligently, but I do have some ideas.

First, our culture of instant gratification, ushered in by technology and electronic communication, has contributed to mass A.D.D (if A.D.D. is even real). The average attention span is much, much shorter now than in recent decades. Need proof? Hang out with anyone between the ages of 13-30 for five minutes and you'll see. Concurrent with this lack of attention are drawn out televised sporting events. You'll be hard pressed to watch any pro game on TV that elapses in less than 2 1/2-3 hours. Games are getting longer, and our attention is getting shorter. Enter soccer! Played at a non-stop pace in faster time, it is better suited to the American culture than baseball and football, which take 45 seconds off between 5-7 second discrete plays.

Second, there is gobs of money in soccer that companies and rich Americans want a part of. Between 2003 and 2005, Malcolm Glazer, owner of the NFL's Tampa Bay Bucs, gradually gained controlling interest of Europe's premier soccer franchise, Manchester United. The purchase was valued at $1.47 billion. Soccer salaries in Europe are as bloated as NBA and MLB salaries, if not more. The global fixation on soccer is something that MLB, NBA, and the NFL have been chasing for 20 years. The reason that soccer hasn't gone corporate in America is because the interest has been lacking; companies don't throw big money at something until there is a market for it. They don't create the demand, they meet it when it arrives. If soccer starts to take off in the U.S., you can bet the money, attention, and sponsorship will come with it.

Third, soccer (especially in Europe) has major star power. Ronaldinho, Messi, Zidane, Van Nistelrooy, Xavi, Ballack, Christiano Ronaldo, Eto'o. If there's one distinguishing attribute about American culture, its that we are celebrity-obsessed. This could be a major driving force to the soccer movement. I don't think it would take much for these names to explode in American fame. The problem is, America doesn't have any homegrown players on level with Europe's best. We saw that the David Beckham experiment did not work out very well on the pitch, but the notoriety and revenue that the LA Galaxy gained was noticeable. Becks walked off the beaten path by leaving the most competitive leagues in the world to play in the lowly MLS.

Fourth, we're getting better at soccer.
Jozy Altidore gives Americans cause for optimism
The U.S. national team has been ranked in the world top 20 for a year and a half straight, and is currently ranked 14th. The team is budding with talent like never before, with guys like Jozy Altidore, Michael Bradley, DeMarcus Beasley, Clint Dempsey, Landon Donovan, Eddie Johnson, and Oguchi Onyewu. This team disappointed in the 2006 World Cup, but played with talent, chemistry, and passion in last year's Confederation's Cup, finishing as runner-up to Brazil. On their way to a well-played 3-2 defeat in the final, the U.S. excelled in beating highly ranked Spain and showing that it could be a major player in the international soccer scene. As recently as 8 years ago, the national team finished in the top 8 of the World Cup in Cinderella fashion, proving that this team has tasted success.


There is hope anew for soccer in America. The World Cup craze in 2006 is sure to be replicated, and most likely exceeded by next month's version. But let's not give our boys too much hype or bank on them too much; this team underachieves when expectations run high, as I've written before. I'm excited for the World Cup and hopeful about our chance of success, but wary of how much impact the World Cup outcome will have on the trajectory of the world's sport in its crucial stage in the United States.
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May 24th 2010 @ 02:48

Posted By: Jason Heim - Category: Soccer
   


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