A Revisiting and Revising Continued
Are Kobe and LeBron destined to finally meet in the Finals?
This is a continuation of the NBA Playoffs preview column.
We've reached the end of another marathon season to embark on....a marathon postseason. Over the next two months, several things could happen. Assuming that Portland survives deep into the Western Conference Playoffs, Brandon Roy could return to the floor from surgery to repair a torn meniscus. A team could struggle in the opening round, survive an upset bid, look better in the second round, then completely round into shape by the conference finals (Lakers, Boston, and Denver). A team could do the exact opposite (I'm looking at you Phoenix, Utah, and Miami). Lady GaGa could debut another asinine single, peak at #1, then have everyone who listens to pop music forget about it. The sun could set on Tim Duncan's career. Ben Roethlisberger could be charged with somewhere between 2 and 7 sexual assaults. Kevin Durant or LeBron or Dirk Nowitzki or Steve Nash could take their names off the "Best Player to Never Win A Title" list.
The point is, the NBA Playoffs are long. REALLY long. Even though it takes a long time to develop, I'm glad that there's a substantial amount of basketball still to come. A lot can happen over the next two months, especially in the suicidal Western Conference. My preseason predictions were way off, but how can I be expected to differentiate among 4-7 teams that are essentially interchangeable? I feel no shame. I do, though, feel some playoff predictions coming on.
aaaaaaaaaaaand.....here they are.
#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Oklahoma City Thunder
This is how good the West is: we get to see Kobe-Durant in Round 1. The incumbent 2nd best player in the league against the new 2nd best player in the league. A former 35 ppg scorer vs. the reigning (and youngest ever) scoring champ. An exhilarating, we're-not-sure-how-good-we-ar e-yet upstart against the experienced, savvy defending Champs. The Lakers have looked mediocre for the last month, while OKC has been riding high and is brimming with confidence. One of the true barometers of a team's legitimacy is their road record. OKC was 23-18 away from home this year, which is pretty good for the youngest team in the NBA. The cold truth is that the Lakers have way too much for OKC to handle down low in Pau Gasol, the rehabbed Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom. No way Nenad Krstic, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison can hold them down. OKC can compete, but not this year. Wrong team, wrong Round 1 opponent.
Los Angeles in 5
#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs
The Mavs win the award for Best Deadline Roster Makeover. The additions of Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler give them a certified low post presence and shot blocker, more athleticism and toughness on the perimeter, and great free throw shooting. It's hard to pick against a team that trots out Kidd, Butler, Marion, Nowitzki, and Haywood/Contract Year Dampier and brings Terry, Beaubois, and JJ Barea off the bench. The Spurs have clearly declined over the last 2 regular seasons to the point that everyone has finally taken them off the list of title contenders. With Tony Parker out (as usual), this team has played masterfully down the stretch. Ginobili has carried them in every imaginable way, and George Hill has turned into a capable ball handler and shooter. Still, this team lives and dies with Duncan, and sadly, the lights are juuuuuuuust about to go out on him. This year, he posted career lows in scoring, rebounding, minutes played, blocks, free throws attempted, and field goals attempted. The Spurs respond strongly when they are counted out for certain, and this is my decision to count them out for 2010.
Dallas in 6
#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers
Without superstar Brandon Roy, Portland really has no chance against this Phoenix team. Since not being shipped off at the trade deadline,
Amare and Nash led Phoenix to a 22-6 record after the All-Star break
Phoenix in 4
#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz
Probably the best series of the first round.
George Karl took Denver's mojo with him when he left the bench
Denver in 7
Western Conference Semifinals
#1 LA Lakers vs. #4 Denver Nuggets
This rematch of the 2009 Western Finals is sure to rekindle some nasty feelings, the likes of which will only be intensified by Ron Artest's presence. Without George Karl's invisible impact, Denver can't beat the Lakers. The longer the Lakers hang around, the more they'll get on their feet and regain their superior form. Denver was good at home this season, but just 19-22 on the road. You can't have success in the playoffs if you don't win on the road, and Denver would have to play 4 games in LA over the full series.
Billups' eyes will light up every time Derek Fisher checks in because he can do whatever he wants in that matchup. Other than at point guard, Denver has no advantages. The Lakers have more than enough muscle to handle the physical Nuggets big men, and Artest should be adequate to handle Anthony. As a Laker fan, I'm hoping that the purple and gold will have rounded into shape by this point in the playoffs, but that's no guarantee. Anyone can get beat over a 7 game series if they don't play well.
Los Angeles in 6
#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #3 Phoenix Suns
Both of these teams have been among the league's top 5 since the All-Star break. Both are on the short list of teams that nobody wants to meet in a 7 game series. Unfortunately for them, they'll meet prematurely in the second round. Fortunately for us, it will be another dynamite matchup between evenly-matched teams. The Nash-Kidd battle should be fantastic: two should-be-over-the-hill superstars who have run their teams as dominantly as ever in 09-10. Both play little defense at this juncture of their careers, but their offensive games are as sharp as ever. Nowitzki and Stoudemire and Stoudemre will probably guard each other, which should be another amazing battle. Amare hasn't encountered many teams that have the personnel to rough him up in the post, but the Mavs can. If Brendan Haywood is healthy and swatting shots, Amare might find himself with a lack of easy shots around the rim, which will force him to the top of the key for his patented 20 foot jumper. If jumpshooting Amare shows up, the Mavs will win. If Amare is getting to the basket at will and getting plenty of free throws, Phoenix has a great shot.
This series might come down to whoever can have a 1 record on the road. I say whoever wins one more on the road than the other will win this series. I can easily see the Suns stealing a high-scoring Game 7 against a frustrated Dirk on the Mavs' floor for a date with the Lakers in the West Finals. In fact, that's my pick; nobody would have predicted that the Phoenix Suns who started this season would become a title contender again in the Nash era, but that has become the reality.
Phoenix in 7
Western Conference Finals
#1 LA Lakers vs. #3 Phoenix Suns
A classic matchup between Pacific Division rivals. From 05-08, the Suns dominated this series at the height of Nash's Fun-N-Gun. Once the Lakers ripped Pau Gasol from Memphis, the Lakers vaulted above the Suns over night and into the West's throne room. The Lakers have huge problems at the point guard position, but then again, that fact hasn't changed since last season's Championship roster. Nash should be giddy about this matchup, especially with the way he and his team has jelled over the last 2 months. Again, if Phoenix doesn't have Robin Lopez back by the Dallas series, they won't even get out of the second round. If Lopez is playing by the Conference Finals, he could slow down Gasol just enough to keep him from being so hyper-efficient on offense. Amare is going to challenge Gasol and the fragile Bynum at the rim, and if he induces foul trouble, he could be unstoppable late in games. I've made it this far without mentioning Kobe's name more than once. That's kind of what Kobe's game has become over the last 2 seasons. He's there from the beginning and you know it. He may take it slow and lay low for a while, but he is always the reckoning force when the end comes. The Lakers won the season series 3-1 against the Suns while hardly breaking a sweat. It would appear that the Suns do not match up with the Lakers very well this season, but only one of those games took place after Amare's non-trade at the deadline. Pre-deadline and post-deadline Phoenix may as well be counted as different teams. The Suns lost that one meeting with the Lakers since, but they will still be a team that the Lakers will not take lightly.
In the end, good offense and an opportunistic--not necessarily good--defense will win out. Say what you want about Ron Artest and his contributions to the Lakers this season, but he is the one new variable on a team that gives up 2 less points per night than last season. Kobe is the ultimate closer, and if this series happens to make it past 5 games, the Lakers can rest easy knowing that Kobe will get whatever he wants on offense when it counts.
Los Angeles in 6
Surprise, surprise. That leaves Kobe's top-seeded Lakers against LeBron's top-seeded Cavs in the matchup of the century. So many questions remain. Does LeBron have what it takes to match competitive wits with Kobe? Does LeBron have the determination to win at all costs? Can he sacrifice a little bit of having fun with his teammates to demand their best and dig into them when absolutely necessary? Do the Lakers care enough to repeat? Does Phil Jackson?
Artest is up for some prestigious awards this postseason
These questions will all be answered in the next two months. Boy, I'm excited. I hope you are, too. Let the postseason begin!
