A Summer Unlike Any Other
Above, we see a neutral image of LeBron James. We see this because, in less than 4 hours, he no longer has a contract. Because he doesn't have a contract, he doesn't have a team. LeBron James is a free agent.
So what, you ask? Oh nothing, just that the most coveted free agent class in the history of the NBA, led by the most coveted free agent in the history of pro sports, is about to commence.
This will get interesting.
Ever since LeBron signed a contract that was due to expire in the summer of 2010, the entire NBA--executives, GMs, and players--has jockeyed to somehow join forces with him on his next team. As a result of Free Agent LeBron, there has been a 2-year lead up of franchises trying to situate themselves to be in the best position possible to hook King James. During this time, the league has been flooded with unbalanced trades aimed at shedding salary, the assumption of bloated, but expiring, contracts, and the aversion of any long term commitments. Truly, the league and its fans have never seen a phenomenon like this. And it's all about LeBron.
LeBron, however, is not the only catch to be made once the calendar flips tonight. The list of superstar free agents is staggering: Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Rudy Gay, David Lee, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, and even more. I'm not counting or anything, but that list constitutes roughly half of the league's superstars. All free agents--in the same offseason. EVERYONE wants the chance to play with LeBron, or at least pick up the pieces of some devastated suitor in his wake.
Every free agent, except Chris Bosh, has been surprisingly mum on which teams they want to play for, to the point that the media, fans, and bloggers are subject to nothing more than guesswork. The guesswork is fun, but its still guesswork, and has no credible support. The time for guesswork is over. Once the free agent signing period opens, a select few people will gain the knowledge that the world needs to have, then give it to us on TV, the radio, and the Internet. Over the next few weeks, all of the unknowns will become known, and we presumably look upon a transformed landscape in the NBA.
With that, I'm going to offer my incompetent predictions as to where these guys are going.
LeBron James
Prognosticators have been prognosticating about where LeBron will land for over a year. First, the Knicks were almost a certainty. Then the Knicks faded and a possible alliance with Nets minority owner Jay-Z was expected. Then people thought LeBron's unusual sense of loyalty would keep him with his hometown Cavs. Finally, everyone has Chicago as the front-runner to sign him if he leaves Cleveland. I don't claim to know better than anybody else where he's going. However, a tiny, innocuous piece of news a few months ago might have strong implications that he will not stay in Cleveland. The news? LeBron filed an official request with the NBA to change his jersey number from 23 to 6, which is only necessary if a player is changing teams. In other words, LeBron doesn't need to go through the NBA to change his number if he's staying with his team.
This is a flashing neon sign that tells me LeBron is gone from the only team he has ever played for. Either that, or he's just trying to keep us on our toes. I have no idea, but I don't think he's staying in Cleveland.
Prediction: Flip a coin between Chicago and.....Chicago
Dwyane Wade
The Flash has not articulated anything about his plans, but most indicators point to him staying in Miami and recruiting Amare or Bosh very hard. Wade seems tied to the Heat and team President Pat Riley, and seems very unlikely to jump ship to join another star's team. He wants someone else to join his team, and the prospects of that look pretty good. Pay no attention to the possibility of a LeBron-Bosh-Wade trio in Miami that was floated earlier this week. It's most likely to me that Amare will flee the Suns to team up with Wade on South Beach.
Prediction: stays in Miami
Chris Bosh
Months ago, before Bosh started telling everyone that he wants to jump on Bron and Wade's coattails, there was strong rumor of a sign and trade that would send him to the Lakers in exchange for Andrew Bynum. This still seems like a strong possibility, as reported by Sekou Smith. The idea of a sign and trade with Bosh makes him a viable option to many more teams than if he were simply a free agent. Aside from the Laker rumor, Bosh has essentially intimated that he will wait to see where LeBron signs, then make his decision based on that information.
Whether this means that he will sign with that team or somewhere else is anyone's guess. My intuition is that he will follow LeBron, unless LeBron stays with Cleveland. All I know is that Bosh is even more of a lock to change teams than LeBron is. Bosh should sign up with LeBron or Wade if he doesn't get traded to the Lakers, because he hasn't shown that he can win as an alpha dog. I suspect he will go with LeBron.
Prediction: 60% chance to Chicago, 40% chance to Los Angeles
Amare Stoudemire
My favorite player is only being talked about in the context of two teams: the Suns and the Heat. He's certainly burned a lot of bridges in Phoenix with fans, with recently departed GM Steve Kerr, and with owner Robert Sarver. Whether the team wants him back remains to be seen, in spite of reports that the two sides are working on a new contract. I have thought from the beginning that if Amare were to opt out of his contract that teaming up with D-Wade in Miami would be a great duo to build around. With Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers as the only two players under contract for the Heat, they better hope they can retain Wade and rope another big name in free agency, or else Pat Riley is going to drive himself crazy filling out a roster with nobodies.
Prediction: Miami
Joe Johnson
JJ might be the biggest wild card. With the other big names, there seems to be a favorite or two that will likely win out. With Johnson, I can foresee him signing with any of 5 teams equally: Miami, the Knicks, the Nets, the Clippers, and the Mavs. Those with access seem pretty certain that he won't return to Atlanta, even if they offer him max money. Honestly, I think he would be smart to take a little less money if it means that he can team up with the likely combos of LeBron-Bosh or Wade-Stoudemire. Adding Johnson to either of those pairs would form you a stellar core. Reports have the Knicks as the favorite to land Johnson as they're already defaulting to Plan B in doubt of signing LeBron. And why not? He could score at his pleasure in that system, and he's played for Mike D'Antoni before.
Prediction: New York Knicks
Dirk Nowitzki
Dirk is 99.8% sure to be returning to the Mavs. So why did he opt out of the last year of his contract? With the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement next summer, many are anticipating that the players union will have to concede lower max contract salaries (and salaries in general) in order to avoid a lockout. Dirk opted out (1) to place himself in the company of the league's best players to at least give himself the chance to play with one or two of them and (2) to get paid while he can. Next summer he will likely be eligible to earn much less than he can now. Savvy move by Dirk, but he's not going anywhere. He and Mark Cuban like each other too much. They're the anti Stoudemire-Sarver.
Going nowhere - Dallas
Carlos Boozer
We all thought Boozer was going to get traded in 08-09 because of his early termination option last summer. He was the biggest fish on the trade market all season long, and nothing materialized. Summer came and we thought he was going to terminate his contract, but he didn't. He stuck with Utah, who seemingly wanted to get rid of him quickly to make room for Paul Millsap. Again this season we thought Boozer would be traded, but it never happened. So what am I getting at exactly? That every time we thought Booz was going to bolt or be traded, he stuck with the Jazz, and the Jazz stuck with him. This is one of the most stable organizations and best situations of any in pro sports, so why would he leave? The Jazz are fringe contenders every year, and Boozer is a big reason for that. We've seen him stay twice. What makes this time any different?
Prediction: Jazz
Paul Pierce and Ray Allen
Pierce just opted out of his contract to join the fun this week, but he's not going anywhere, partly because no one else would dare commit to him for more than 3 years, and because the Celtics will never let him get away. He's a Celtic for life.
Allen has lots of options because he could take the mid-level exception of about $6 million a year. The shelf life of a shooter like Allen is long, which makes his age a mitigated concern. He could hop on the wagon with any of the potential free agent combos to make a nasty core, but I think he's tied to this Boston team. With Doc Rivers now committed to coach next season, they seem determined to make one more run at a title before its all over. Besides if Ray leaves, KG might stalk him all summer with a machete in hand.
Prediction: Celtics
Rudy Gay
Executives in the league don't seem to like Rudy Gay all that much. Which means that Donald Sterling probably loves him! Rudy Gay and the Clippers, a perfect match! Gay isn't an acceptable consolation for whiffing on LeBron, which Sterling will inevitably do, but doesn't this have textbook Donald Sterling all over it?
Prediction: Clippers
David Lee
Lee seems like the kind of player that wouldn't latch on with a big name on another team. He seems like the guy who would replace the big name on his former team. I don't know what it is, but I just get that feeling from him. I think he could take less money to stay with the Knicks if they somehow sign Bosh and Johnson, otherwise he'll leave. Look for him to jump to Phoenix or Utah if their power forwards sign elsewhere.
Prediction: Knicks
We're about to go on a wild ride that could shift the NBA power centers. What happens starting at midnight will go down as perhaps the biggest event in NBA history.
