Well I got back on a winning track with my free play yesterday on Houston keeping it within the number. I have another NBA game that I like today in which i think should bring us another winner.
Free Play: Washington 12
This is just too many points for a struggling Utah Jazz team to be laying. I know the Jazz are solid at home and Washington is one of the worst road teams in the NBA but how can you lay 12 points when you have lost 5 straight and 7 of your last 9. Look for teh Wizards to keep this game within the 12 points and pull off the ATS cover in this one.
Good Luck Everyone!
Well folks my first game back came up short in the free plays. The Nets could not get the back door cover last night against the Hawks. Well I move onto what I like today for my free play.
Free Play: Houston 8.5
I really like the Rockets to keep this game close with the Heat today. Houston has been playing much better basketball as of late while Miami as they continue to win games they have not blown too many teams out this season that are above .500. Look for Houston to go on the road and give a soliid effort tonight against the Heat and keep this game within the 8.5 points. Play the road underdog to cash yourself a winnning ticket.
Well I am back folks. I have had a little bit of time to look at some plays for tonight's NBA action and I have found two of them that I like. The one will be up on my paid play site while I will give you the other for here.
Free Play: New Jersey 9.5
This is alot of points for a struggling Hawks team to be giving tonight against New Jersey. Atlanta is just 1-4 SU the last 5 games and 3-8 SU the last 11 games. The Hawks defense has fallen apart over the last five games allowing 104.6 points per game which is 8.9 points higher than their season average. New Jersey has sturggled themselves but they have played tough games the last few games falling apart in the fourth quarter to Orlando and they picked up a road win in Cleveland and also campe up short in the fourth quarter against the Pacers.
Look for New Jersey to give a solid effort tonight and for the Hawks to win this game but not by more then 9.5 points. Let's play the underdog with the points to cash us a winning ticket.
Alright everyone I am sorry I have been away the past few days. I have been swamped trying to get settled into my new house along with getting use to a whole new state and new people. I am starting to catch up with everything in the house so I will be back the next few days posting free plays again soon. This is a great time of year with NBA playoffs starting soon and MLB right around the corner.
I just want to give everyone a heads up my free plays for Baseball will either be on the underdog or it will be on the run line. You will not find me playing money lines where you have to pay 160 to win 100. Everyonne is going to lose so if you lose a game laying that kind of money you have to win two games to make back what you lost on one game. I am huge on finding that underdog or that favorite that is going to win my 2 or more runs. You will see that once we get rolling into MLB. Right now my handicapping speciality is NBA and NCAA Basketball so I am going to be playing those type of games over the next few weeks until we get a good feel for MLB.
Hope you all have a great weekend and I will be back very soon.
Well everyone I blew it yesterday with George Mason getting manhandled by Ohio State. The Buckeyes looked amazing and if they play like that through the rest of this Tourney they will be very tough to beat.
Well for today I do not have a free play. This is my last day in PA so I have to get the cars loaded and ready for us to leave for VA tomorrow. I am hoping to have a play tomorrow before I head out on the road.
Hope everyone has a great night and go enjoy some NIT action tonight.
Well we fell short on the over in the Denver Miami game last night. That is ok I have a good one today that is going to get us a free play winner. Today's free play is not going to have a big write up I have to get rolling to my families house they are having going away party for my wife, son and I.
Free Play: George Mason 11
George Mason knows that Ohio State likes to play a faster pace game. The Pirates from George Mason is going to control the tempo of this game and force Ohio State to adjust to that slower pace game. Both teams play outstanding defense and if this game gets into a slow pace game George Mason will keep this within the 11 points. Play the underdog and look for them to keep it close against Ohio State.
Well I a did not get a chance to post a free play last night due to me being swamped with finalizing everything for my move on Tuesday. I do have an NBA game that I like for a free play tonight.
Free Play: Denver and Miami over 205.5
Denver has held their last two opponents to under 90 points and we all know how good Miami’s defense can be especially at home. The total on this game opened at 206.5 and has now moved down to 205 and 205.5. We are seeing that line movement due to the strong defensive play of Denver the past two games and Miami’s outstanding defense.
Bettors need to remember that both of these teams can score and they are both playing on 0 days of rest. Denver and Miami play their worse defense when on 0 days of rest. Denver allows 109.8 points per game and has seen the over go 9-7 in those games while Miami allows 99.4 points per game and has seen the over go 10-6. Denver has not held three straight opponents to under 100 points yet this season.
I really believe that these two teams are going to play a higher scoring game tonight. With both teams playing last night and the history of these two teams struggling defensively on the second night of a back to back I just feel we will see this game go over the total.
Good Luck Everyone hope everyone is enjoying the NCAA Tournament so far, let’s hope my Patriots of George Mason can pull of the upset over Ohio State on Sunday.
Alright folks I came through with another free play winner last night as Houston again played down to the Bobcats pace while the Bobcats continue to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. I am going to jump into the NCAA tournament today for a free play winner.
Free Play: Bucknell 10....
Folks I do not know much about Bucknell but I do know the line movement on this game is huge. As of right now at 11:30 AM ET time there are over 4500 Bets on this game with about 60% is on UCONN and this game has moved from the opening line of 11.5 to 10. That right there is telling me we are seeing bigger money on Bucknell and bigger money usually means sharp players.
UCONN is going to draw alot of attention after their outstanding performance in the Big East Conference Tourney. The Huskies just better not take this Bucknell team lightly or they might be in for a bit of a scare.
I am going to make the play on Bucknell just knowing that their is some sharp money on this team today and with knowing that UCONN could possibly look beyond this team and with the emotional factor still in their minds of winning that Big East Tourney. I feel UCONN wins this game but Bucknell keeps it within 10 points.
Good Luck Everyone whith your Brackets and hope some of you win some money this Tournament.
Well that was a horrible call by me last night on Harvard. They were dominated from the start of that game by Oklahoma State. I just have to move onto what I like for today. I am going to move to the NBA today and make a total play on the Bobcats and Rockets game.
Free Play: Charlotte Bobcats and Houston Rockets Under 202
Charlotte enters this matchup playing a very slow pace game. The Bobcats average just 93 possessions per game away from home and now have to go on the road and face off against one of the faster pace teams in the league Houston. Charlotte is really struggling to score points as of late and now faces a team in Houston who plays to their pace level every time they play each other. The last 10 games these two teams have played against each other have been less than 200 points. I like this game to stay lower scoring with Charlotte struggling offensively and Houston will play to Charlotte’s slower pace.
Alright I got to get back to packing. I will be back tomorrow with another winning free play.
Good Luck Everyone!
Well we got right back on track last night with denver the 2.5 point underdog getting the SU win. That now puts me at 5-1 the last 6 free play winners and another day hitting my paid play with the Thudner putting a hurtin gon the Wizards last night. Well onto todays game.
Free Play Harvard 5
Look for Harvard to head into Oklahoma State tonight and give the cowboys a run for there money.
Sorry this is so short but I have only 6 days until I move so I got to get back to packing.
Good Luck Everyone!
Well yesterday sucked! Toronto fought back in the first quarter but could not get the cover for me. I am still 4-1 the last 5 free plays, I plan on getting back on track with a winner today.
Free Play: Denver 2.5
Folks this Denver team is playing outstanding basketball right now. Denver is 8-2 SU the last 10 games while going 9-1 ATS while going 5-1 ATS as an underdog during those 10 games. Some people might think Denver wasted their scoring the other day by dropping 131 on Detroit but Denver is actually 7-3 ATS their last 10 games after scoring 120 plus points the previous game.
Throw in the fact that Denver has lost twice to this Hornets team this season once by 9 and the other by 6 and this line is only 2.5 that is due to the outstanding play from Denver as of late and the revenge factor in this one. Take the road dog in this game and look for Denver to keep this tight and don't be surprised if they pull out the win.
Well back to getting my research done for the NCAA tournament I will be back tomorrow to find another free play winner.
Alright everyone I said I would be back with a free play today and I have a good one to keep my four game winning streak going. I am going to jump into this NBA today and play the early game.
Free Play: Toronto -.5 first quarter.
Folks this Charlotte team is in the bottom 3 for points average 1st quarter on the road this season. The Bobcats after a win at home and then go on the road the next game have really struggled in the first quarter.
Toronto is playing much better at home as of late with wins over the Pacers, Bulls and Hornets over the last few home games. The Raptors even played Utah very close to the end to lose a heartbreaker..
Look for Toronto take care of business the first quarter on the Bobcats and cover that half point line in the first quarter.
Good Luck everyone it is back to packing more stuff for me.
Well we picked up another free play winner last night even though I needed overtime to make it three in a row now but a win is a win and that’s how this business works. I have another free play tonight in College Basketball looking to make it 4 in a row.
Free Play: Richmond -5.5
Rhode Island (19-12, 10-7) enters this matchup tonight knowing they can beat this Richmond team since they did go into Richmond back in January and knock off the Spiders on their home court. Rhode Island has been up and down as of late, winning one or two them losing a game or two. They are not staying consistent with winning. The Rams of Rhode Island are averaging 72 points per game the last five games which is 3 points better then their season average while their defense is allowing 67 points per game. The problem for Rhode Island though is they have struggled defensively away from home this season where they are allowing 72 points per game. Rhode Island is just 3-5 ATS on the road this season against teams that are above .500. Rhode Island is just 1-4 ATS their last 5 games after a win. The Rams are a horrible 5-22-1 the last 28 games after an ATS win. The Rams are also 0-3-1 ATS the last 4 games on a neutral court as an underdog.
Richmond (24-7, 13-3) enters this matchup tonight looking for revenge from that upset to Rhode Island at home back in early January. In Richmond’s mind there is no better time to do that since they get a chance to knock the Rams out of the conference tournament and put a halt on their chances on an NCAA tournament berth. Richmond is playing really well right now winning 4 of their last 5 and 8 of their last 9. Richmond is playing outstanding on the defensive side of the ball as of late allowing more then 65 points just once in the last 9 games. The last five games the Spiders are allowing just 61.4 points per game while the offense is averaging 68.8 points per game. Richmond is 10-6 ATS on the road this season and is 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 5-7 points. The Spiders are also 4-0 ATS their last 4 Atlantic 10 games. The Spiders are 5-0 ATS their last five games as a favorite. Richmond is 20-8-2 their last 30 games against teams that have a winning % above .600.
Richmond is going to get their revenge tonight. Look for the Spiders to shut down this Rhode Island team and limit their chances on getting into the NCAA Tournament. I am not huge on taking favorite this time of year but I have this feeling that Richmond takes care of business tonight so I will lay the points with the Spiders in this one to cash us a free play winning ticket.
Well two in a row with the free play winners. I have been swamped getting stuff ready for my move to VA so I did not get a chance to put a nice write up together for today's free play.
Free Play: Ohio and Ball State over 138
Hope everyone has a good night and I will be back tomorrow with a free play with write up. Sorry everyone!
I am back today with a free play that I have up. I continue to stay hot with my paid plays hitting another won last night with Princeton blowing out Penn to get themselves into a play in game with Harvard for the Ivy League title. I am not 8-0 my last 8 plaid plays and 6-0 my last 6 Top Plays. Today for the free play we are going to jump into College Basketball for the Big Sky Conference final.
Free Play: Northern Colorado -3.5
Montana enters tonight’s matchup winning 3 of their last 5 but is just 2-3 ATS. The Grizzlies are struggling offensively though averaging just 63.3 points per game the last 4 games and scoring less then 60 in 3 of those 4. That is not a good thing for them tonight since they are on the road facing a Northern Colorado team who is one of the best defensive teams at home this season in college basketball. Montana is just 6-10 ATS on the road this season and is just 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season. Montana has struggled against better teams this season going just 1-5 ATS on the road against teams that are above .500. Montana is 0-5 ATS their last five road games and is 0-4 ATS on the road against teams with a home winning % above .600.
Northern Colorado enters this matchup on a 6 game winning streak but they are just 2-3 ATS in those games. The Bears offense has really taken off in that 6 game winning streak averaging 79.2 points per game which is 8 point better than their season average. The Bears this season at home has played outstanding defense in which they are allowing just 55.8 points per game and teams shoot just 36.4% on them when they are at home. The Bears are 6-2-1 ATS this season at home and are 1-0 ATS on 0 days of rest. Northern Colorado is 4-2 ATS at home this season against teams that are above .500. The Bears are 9-4 ATS the last 13 games as a favorite of .5-6.5 points.
These two teams met twice already this season with both teams winning one game apiece. The Montana Grizzlies though are heading into a very tough environment tonight. This is not going to be easy for the Grizzlies to deal with the crowd and the emotional factor that will be on Northern Colorado’s side knowing they can clinch their tournament birth in front of their home crowd. Look for the Bears to take care of business tonight and give their home fans a celebration tonight.
Well I am going to start by saying last night’s free play was a real solid one with Houston getting the easy cover against a struggling Sacramento team. Like I said I was going to put that in my paid play package but I wanted my readers on my blog to cash that one since I did struggle the two plays before that. My paid plays have been on an amazing run. I am 7-0 my last 7 paid plays while going 5-0 my last five Top Plays. I have one paid play up tonight and that is my College Basketball Top Play today. I do not have a free play to give out today. Looking over the games I wanted to play North Texas but I am a backing off with how many of the favorites seem to be going down and we are not even talking about not covering the line they are losing outright. So I am going to talk a little bit about that today.
I have had some real good success over the past week with my paid plays with all of the conference tournaments going on. We have seen a lot of the top seeded team get knocked off and blow their chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament. Look at last night as we saw St. Peters beat Fairfield the top seed two days ago then go up against Iona as an 8 point dog and win outright. We saw Old dominion take care of #25 ranked George Mason the other day then get by VCU last night to punch their ticket. Indiana State went out on Sunday and got by top seed Missouri State to punch their ticket and the list goes on.
We are seeing these better teams struggle due to them beating these other teams earlier in the season and then having too much confidence when they meet again. I said it yesterday in another blog it is very hard to beat a team three times in one season and that is not just for basketball that happens in football also. These teams make the adjustments when it comes time to play the team for the third time and it makes it a lot harder for that team going for a sweep of three games. As sports handicapper that is a great time to jump on those underdogs especially at this time of year since the public likes to bet the conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament. If the public is betting a team that is going for that three game sweep and the line is going up we are gaining value due to this and it is just another tool that gives us an edge when handicapping the games.
Example: Everyone can see my previous picks from the night before if they go to my page of plays up for sale. Last night I had North Texas to get by W. Kentucky and I go the line at -1. By the time that game started last night it was at North Texas 1. The public wanted to bet W. Kentucky since they just beat North Texas a few weeks ago and look what the final result was.
This is the time of year for you to really make some cash in College Basketball since the public will bet the top seeds and the favorites most of the time. Now that we are getting into the big conferences watch and see how many of the big name teams get hammered by public action and that underdog who has nothing to lose because if they do lose will most likely end up going home so they will make every attempt to play competitive basketball in hopes of keeping their season alive. There are a lot of the bigger schools who do not play with a lot of confidence because they know they will get an at large bid to the tournament if they lose a game so to them it does not matter at times because they already know they are in.
What I am saying is that this is a good chance for people to put some extra cash in your pocket to start the summer with and use it to take the family on vacation. Think about the psychology of the game for the tournament and use that as a handicapping tool and what the public is doing since that can help you make some money to pay for that vacation. If you do not have the time to put the work in to handicapping the game then look for blogs or sites that give free plays and good info that can help you but remember those free plays are free for a reason. Majority of handicappers give those free plays because they do not meet all the standards as a paid play. So no matter what you do to make some cash on the NCAA tournament if it using free plays or paid plays or doing the work yourself remember to be smart with money management since you can easily lose that money as fast as you won it.
I really hope everyone understand what I am trying to get across here by giving a few pointers on what to look for in the next few weeks of college basketball and how to make some good money and smart investments for the next few weeks. I will be back tomorrow with another free play winner for everyone. Hope you all have a great night.
Well I do not know what to say about Rider just laying down yesterday and getting steamrolled by Iona. Well you have those days, the free plays have been struggling the past few days but I am red hot with my paid plays. I am 6-0 my last 6 paid plays and I am 11-4 my last 15 College Basketball Paid plays. I do though plan on getting back on track with the free plays with today’s NBA game that I like. I was going to put this for sale up on my site for a paid play but I want to give this one out to my readers to cash a winning ticket.
Free Play: Houston Rockets -4
Houston comes into this game playing outstanding basketball as of late. The Rockets are taking care of business on the road and at home over the past few games. Houston is 6-1 SU the last 7 games while going 5-2 ATS. In those 6 wins for the Rockets the past 7 games they are winning by an average margin of 10.5 points per game. Houston owes a lot of the success as of late to their offense which is averaging 109.1 points per game the last 7 games. Houston is 4-0 ATS the last 4 games as a road favorite of .5-4.5. The Rockets are 4-1 the last five games as a road favorite. Houston is 8-1 ATS the last 9 games against the Pacific Division. Houston is 9-4-1 the last 14 games against teams that have a winning % below .400.
Sacramento enters this matchup off a tough OT loss their last time out to Utah. The Kings are really struggling as of late going 3-7 SU the last 10 games in which they are just 4-6 ATS. The defense for the Kings is playing horrible right now. In those last 10 games the Kings are allowing 111.7 points per game. They are not going to compete in this game tonight is they cannot stop this red hot Houston offense. Sacramento is just 1-3 ATS this season when their previous game went to overtime. The Kings are just 2-5 ATS the last 7 games on 1 day of rest. The Kings are just 1-4 ATS when scoring 100 plus points the previous game.
These two teams have met twice already this season in which Houston is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. I do not see why they cannot make it 3-0 tonight against the Kings teams. Houston is playing with a lot of confidence right now with an offense that is scoring not just at home but on the road also. They now face a team that has only allowed less than 100 points once in the last 10 games and who seems to not even be able to stop anyone. The Rockets are not out of any playoff picture right now and they know every win counts right now. The reason why this line is as low as it is because Houston does not have the greatest road record this year but they have improved over the past few games and the Kings are out for revenge from two earlier losses this season. Look for that improvement to continue tonight as they take it to the Kings in Sacramento. Play the Road favorite in this one who is red hot right now.
Well Folks I did not come through last night with Denver playing a horrible first half and even though they fought back in the 2nd half they fell short. That is ok we move onto today play that I have in College Basketball for the Rider Broncs and Iona Gaels game.
Free Play: Rider 6.5
This line has me scratching my head a little bit. Usually when I see a game that seems too good to be true then I take the opposite that is not the case in this game and I am going to explain why.
Rider enters this matchup playing very good basketball as of late winning 6 straight while going 4-2 ATS. The recent success from Rider is coming from heir high powered offense that is averaging 82.2 points per game the last five games while the defense is allowing 71.2 points per game the last five games but the defense is allowing teams to shoot just 38.8 % on them. Rider has played Iona tough this year winning in Iona by 2 as a 8.5 point underdog and losing by 4 in OT to Iona at home earlier this season. Rider this season has played better away from home where they are 14-4 SU and are 14-3 ATS while at home they are just 9-5 SU and are 1-10 ATS. The Broncs are 8-1 ATS away from home against teams that are above .500. Rider is 7-3 ATS as an underdog this season of less then 10 points. Rider is 4-0 ATS their last four games on a neutral court. The Broncs are 7-2 ATS the last 9 games against teams that are above .600.
Iona enters this matchup playing very good basketball themselves on an 8 game winning streak in which they are 4-3-1 ATS. The Gaels have been playing outstanding basketball on the offensive side of the ball and defensive side. Iona is averaging 84 points per game the last five games while allowing just 62.8 points per game. The downside to Iona though is they are just 3-5 ATS this season as a favorite of less then 10 points. The Gales are just 7-8 ATS away from home this season The Gaels are just 3-8-1 ATS the last 12 Conference games. The Gaels are just 2-6 ATS the last eight game on a neutral site as a favorite. Iona is 0-2 ATS this season on 0 days of rest.
This is a must win for both teams if they plan on making the field of 68. I can not see why Rider would not put up a fight in this game to make that attempt to get a shot to make the field of 68. Look for Rider to give this Iona team all they can handle today. Grab the points with the underdog and cash us a free play winning ticket.
Alright folks got back to winning ways last night with a win with the over in the Warriors and Celtics game. I had an excellent day with the paid plays sweeping the board going 4-0 yesterday which I am now 11-5 the last 16 paid plays which is good for 69%. I have one paid play up today in college basketball and It will be a free play in the NBA tonight for all of you.
NBA Free Play: Denver 1.5…
Folks jump on this game now. Denver comes into this game playing outstanding basketball over the past 7 games going 6-1 SU while going 7-0 ATS. There are a lot of people that wanted to forget about Denver now that Carmelo is in NY but this team has played better without him. Their last game out they pulled out a win in Utah and they had 5 guys who scored in double figures. They are moving the ball around and everyone is contributing for this team right now. In those six wins the last seven games they have had 5 or more players in double figures 5 out of those 6 games. Denver is not relying on just one player to be the star. Denver is 5-0 the last five games after a win. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS the last five games after scoring 100 plus the previous game. The Nuggets are 4-1 the last five games on 1 day of rest.
The Clippers enter tonight’s matchup struggling as of late. The Clippers are just 1-5 SU the last 6 games while going just 2-4 ATS. The Clippers recent struggles have come from the lack of production on the offensive side of the ball. The offense for the Clippers is averaging just 94.5 points per game the last six games which is 3.9 points lower then their season average. The defense is going to have to step up also if they plan on pulling the win out against this red hot Denver team tonight. The defense is allowing 104 points per game the last six games. The Clippers are just 1-4 ATS the last five games after a win. The Clippers are just 1-4 ATS the last five games against teams above .500. LA is 1-4 the last five games after scoring 100 plus points the previous game. The Clippers are 2-8 the last 10 games against the Western Conference.
Denver is playing much better since the trade of Carmelo and they look like they are an under the radar team that could be a sleeper come playoff time. The Clippers have been struggling and now get a team that is playing very good basketball and seem to be in better form them they were with Carmelo. I will take the points with the road dog tonight and look for Denver to pull out another victory. Play Denver 1.5 points tonight.
Well it has been rough few nights with the free picks. I plan on getting back on track tonight with a solid NBA free play that I have on tap.
Free Play: Golden State and Boston over 204
Golden State continues their 7 game east coast road trip with a stop tonight in Boston against a Celtics team that is again at the top of their game. The Warriors are struggling defensively right now allowing 112.3 points per game in the first three games of this road trip. The offense is playing at a high level right now on this road trip averaging 109.6 points per game on the first three games of this road trip. Golden State has struggled the last five road games allowing 109.8 points per game in those last five road games. They now have to take on a Celtics team that does not play a very fast pace game but are very efficient when they get the ball on offense. The Warriors have only seen 1 of those last five road game go over the posted total since they average total line for those past five road games has been 214 total points.
Boston has been playing outstanding offensively this season while the defense continues to dominate. The Celtics this season are averaging 100.2 points per game at home on the season while shooting over 50% on their home floor. The Celtics though now get a chance to go up against a Warriors team that they dropped 115 on a few weeks ago in Golden State and are averaging 107.6 points per game the last three games against the Warriors. Boston has seen the over go 18-13 this season at home. The over is 4-1 the last five games for the Celtics. The over is 4-1 the last five games against the Western Conference. The over is 10-4 the last 14 games as a home favorite.
Look for these two teams to know down a lot of shot tonight with Golden State’s defense struggling and both of the offenses playing at a high level. Play the over in this game to cash us a winning free play ticket.
Well last night play would have been a win if you got the under 134 early but a push if you got 133 and a loss if you got 132. I got the loss since I had it at 132. Oh we have these kinds of games. I put it behind me and move on t tonight’s College Basketball Free Play.
Free Play: St. Johns and Seton Hall under 131
St. Johns has put together a nice resume of big wins this season. The Red Storm took care of Duke, Pitt, Villanova, Georgetown, Notre Dame, and the list goes on of top 25 teams they have beaten. The Red Storm though has had struggles offensively on the road this year. St. Johns is averaging 68.6 points per game on the road but has scored less then 60 points on the road in three of their last five road games. The Red Storm now have to go on the road tonight and take on a Seton Hall team that is in the top 50 in defense efficiency at home this season. The under is 4-0 the last four games for Seton Hall as a favorite. The under is 4-1 the last five games for St. Johns after scoring 80 or more points the previous game.
Seton Hall enters this matchup with some offensive struggles the last five games. The Pirates are averaging just 59.4 points per game the last five games while shooting just 38.4 % in those 5 games. The defense has kept them in games allowing just 63.4 points per game and only allowing more then 65 points once in the last five games. This season the Pirates are allowing just 61.9 points per game at home which is why the under is 9-2 for Seton Hall at home this year. The Pirates have seen 12 of their 15 conference games go under the posted total this season. The under is 11-3 for Seton Hall when the total is set at 130-139.5. The under is 10-2 for the Pirates as an underdog this season.
St. Johns has played very good this season and has scored points on some of the best teams in College Basketball but tonight I feel they are going to struggle offensively against a team that plays very good defense at home. The offense is struggling for Seton Hall and their defense is playing very well. Look for this game to be a lower scoring game that should end around 125-127. Let’s play the under in this one to cash a free play winning ticket.
Well it was a 1-1 night with the Free plays last night. I really thought Philly was going to pull it out when they were down by 2 late in the fourth and they turned the ball over and it just went down hill from there. So we move onto what I like tonight and is going to be a Total play in College Basketball.
Free Play: UAB and S Miss Under 132
I love these types of games. These two teams played back on 2/2/11 and they scored a total of 146 points to go over the posted total of 134. Tonight the line is at 132 for this game. What is that telling you?
UAB enters this matchup tonight playing outstanding defense as of late allowing just 58.2 points per game the last five games which is 4 points lower then their season average. The offense has taken a step back averaging just 65.4 points per game which is 3.6 points lower then their season average. With the struggling offense and strong defensive play the Blazers have seen the under go 4-1 the last five games. The funny thing is the defense has played even better the last five road games allowing just 54.6 points per game allowing 3 of those 5 opponents to under 56 points with the under going 4-1 in those last 5 road games. The under is 8-4-1 this season for UAB on the road. The under is 5-1 in UAB’s last 6 conference games. The under is 4-0 the last four road games for UAB against teams with a home winning % above .600.
S. Miss enters this matchup playing just as strong on the defensive side of the ball allowing just 59.6 points per game the last five games. The offense has really slowed down for S. Miss averaging just 65.6 points per game the last five games which is 8.4 points lower then their season average. This season S. Miss is allowing just 60.6 points per game at home allowing teams to shoot just 37.3 % on them on their home floor. The under is 5-0 the last five games for S. Miss. The under is 4-0 the last four games for S. Miss as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 the last four games for S. Miss against teams that are above .600.
These two teams have been playing outstanding on the defensive side of the ball as of late and I feel that it will continue tonight. The offense from both teams has not been anything impressive which is going to help since both teams defenses are playing at such a high level right now. Play the under in this game to cash a free play winning ticket.
We picked up an nice free play winner last night with the under in Atlanta and Denver. I am going to stay in the NBA tonight for two free play winners that I like tonight.
Free Play Memphis -1.5
First let me start by saying you can throw all the stats and trend sout the window in this game, this is going to come down to the Psychology of these two two teams.
This game means more to Memphis then it does to the Spurs. Memphis needs to get a win tonight to prove that they can compete against the big teams in the West. Teams that play the best teams in the league usually step their game up and we are going to see that tonight from Memphis. The Spurs won 5 of their last 7 road games but those 5 wins have come against teams at the bottom of the Standings the two losses came to Philly and Chicago who are both playoff bounds teams like Memphis.
The San Antonio Spurs the team with the Best record in the NBA and probably the team that is at the top of almost everybody's power rankings is getting 2 points on the road to Memphis. I smell something fishy with this line.
Memphis is a very good team and is going to take care of the Spurs on their home floor tonight to revenge that lose against the Spurs thier last time out on the Floor.
Second Free Play: Philadelphia 2
Folks this is another game that you can throw the Stats and trends out the window.
Philadelphia played Dallas a few months ago in Dallas and hung with them the entire game and fell apart in the fourth quarter to lose by 9 points. Now they get a chance at redemption at home against this Mavericks team who has struggled in Philly the last 3 times going just 1-2 and 1-2 ATS. The game they did win they only won by two points.
Like I said above this game also is going to come down to who wants it more and the Psychology of the game. Philly needs this win to prove they can compete against top teams in the NBA. Dallas already knows they are a top 5 team and a lose tonight is not going to change that tonight.
Dallas has been on a tear scoring 100 plus points in 8 straight games but that is going to come to an end tonight. They face a Philly team that has not given up 100 plus points at home since 1/11/11 to Indiana.
Look for Philly to put a huge effort into this game tonight and for them to slow that Dallas offense down. Play the home underdog in this one to cash anoher free play winner.
Well folks I am done traveling now until the end of March when my wife, son and I make are our move to Newport News VA. I will be here giving out free picks as much as I can for us to make some cash on. I know I did say the other day I will probably stay away from NBA for a little bit but I found a game I do like tonight.
Free Play: Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets under 202.
Let me start by saying when you mention under and Denver at home in the same sentence people start to think you’re crazy. Since the trade of Melo the Nuggets have actually have seen the over go 2-1 in the three games since his departure but they needed OT against the Blazers to push that over the total. Now they must face a Hawks team that plays a slower pace game averaging just 92.5 possessions per game on the road this season and plays very good defense. Denver played Boston two nights ago at home with a posted total of 204.5 and they finished 40.5 points below the posted total. I am not saying that Atlanta plays as strong of defense as Boston but they both do play a slower pace game and Boston is a better shooting team then the Hawks.
The Hawks acquired defensive specialist Kirk Hinrich on trade day and since him coming to Atlanta the Hawks have allowed just 83 and 79 points per game which they both were on the road. The Hawks are playing on a back to back and could be looking to get their West Coast road trip done to head back home to play Chicago on Wednesday night so the effort might not be 100% tonight. Though the Hawks do play their best defense on 0 days of rest allowing just 90.5 points per game in which the under has cashed 11 out of 17 times.
I say we give it a shot and make a play on the under in this game tonight to cash a free play winning ticket.
Sorry everyone I spent the day traveling from VA to PA which took me about 8 hours with the stops and the shopping the wife wanted to do for our new house so I did not have anytime to get any handicapping done. I am though in the process of working on tomorrows games and I should have a free play up tomorrow. I hope you all had a good weekend and let'e see if I can find us a winner tomorrow night.
Alright everyone I got some time to handicap some games for today and I am going to throw out a free play winner for everyone tonight before I head out for the day with my wife to finish up our house hunting trip. I am going to jump in college basketball for tonight’s game between Northern Arizona at Northern Colorado.
Free Play: Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado Under 138.5
Northern Arizona comes into this matchup really struggling offensively on the road as of late. The Lumberjacks are averaging just 66.3 points per game on the road the last four games and they have only scored more then 65 once in those four games. The defense is allowing just 67.5 points per game the last four road games and 2 of those four games they allowed less then 59 points. The under is 1-3 the last four road games for Northern Arizona. Northern Arizona has seen the under go 9-2 after a win this season. The under is 8-4 this season for Northern Arizona against teams above .500. The under is 4-1 the last five road games for the Lumberjacks as a road underdog. The under is 7-2 the last 9 games for the Lumberjacks against Big Sky opponents.
Northern Colorado enters this matchup tonight playing extremely well on defense this season. The Bears are allowing just 54.1 points per game at home this season while averaging 69.9 points per game. The Bears defense has been so solid at home allowing just 43 points per game the last 6 home games allowing more then 59 points just once in those 6 games. The under is 6-1 this season for the Bears at home. The under is 5-1 the last six homes games. The under is 10-1 the last 11 games for the Bears as a home favorite. The under is 5-1 the last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record.
We should only see about 64-67 possessions each from these two teams tonight. The string defense that the Bears are playing and the struggling offense from Northern Arizona this game is going to stay under the posted total. Jump on the under in this now and grab a free play winner tonight.
Alright everyone I got some time to handicap some games for today and I am going to throw out a free play winner for everyone tonight before I head out for the day with my wife to finish up our house hunting trip. I am going to jump in college basketball for tonight’s game between Northern Arizona at Northern Colorado.
Free Play: Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado Under 138.5
Northern Arizona comes into this matchup really struggling offensively on the road as of late. The Lumberjacks are averaging just 66.3 points per game on the road the last four games and they have only scored more then 65 once in those four games. The defense is allowing just 67.5 points per game the last four road games and 2 of those four games they allowed less then 59 points. The under is 1-3 the last four road games for Northern Arizona. Northern Arizona has seen the under go 9-2 after a win this season. The under is 8-4 this season for Northern Arizona against teams above .500. The under is 4-1 the last five road games for the Lumberjacks as a road underdog. The under is 7-2 the last 9 games for the Lumberjacks against Big Sky opponents.
Northern Colorado enters this matchup tonight playing extremely well on defense this season. The Bears are allowing just 54.1 points per game at home this season while averaging 69.9 points per game. The Bears defense has been so solid at home allowing just 43 points per game the last 6 home games allowing more then 59 points just once in those 6 games. The under is 6-1 this season for the Bears at home. The under is 5-1 the last six homes games. The under is 10-1 the last 11 games for the Bears as a home favorite. The under is 5-1 the last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record.
We should only see about 64-67 possessions each from these two teams tonight. The string defense that the Bears are playing and the struggling offense from Northern Arizona this game is going to stay under the posted total. Jump on the under in this now and grab a free play winner tonight.
Alright everyone I got some time to handicap some games for today and I am going to throw out a free play winner for everyone tonight before I head out for the day with my wife to finish up our house hunting trip. I am going to jump in college basketball for tonight’s game between Northern Arizona at Northern Colorado.
Free Play: Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado Under 138.5
Northern Arizona comes into this matchup really struggling offensively on the road as of late. The Lumberjacks are averaging just 66.3 points per game on the road the last four games and they have only scored more then 65 once in those four games. The defense is allowing just 67.5 points per game the last four road games and 2 of those four games they allowed less then 59 points. The under is 1-3 the last four road games for Northern Arizona. Northern Arizona has seen the under go 9-2 after a win this season. The under is 8-4 this season for Northern Arizona against teams above .500. The under is 4-1 the last five road games for the Lumberjacks as a road underdog. The under is 7-2 the last 9 games for the Lumberjacks against Big Sky opponents.
Northern Colorado enters this matchup tonight playing extremely well on defense this season. The Bears are allowing just 54.1 points per game at home this season while averaging 69.9 points per game. The Bears defense has been so solid at home allowing just 43 points per game the last 6 home games allowing more then 59 points just once in those 6 games. The under is 6-1 this season for the Bears at home. The under is 5-1 the last six homes games. The under is 10-1 the last 11 games for the Bears as a home favorite. The under is 5-1 the last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record.
We should only see about 64-67 possessions each from these two teams tonight. The string defense that the Bears are playing and the struggling offense from Northern Arizona this game is going to stay under the posted total. Jump on the under in this now and grab a free play winner tonight.
Sorry everyone I was not able to post any plays today due to my wife and I spending the day traveling and looking at a new houses in VA for us to move into. I am trying to get some handicapping done now so I should have a game for us tomorrow. Hope everyone is having a great night and I will be back tomorrow with a winning free play for us.
Ok we picked up a close one last night with the under in the VCU and Drexel game but a winner is a winner. Tonight I have another College Basketball Free Play that I really like. We are going to discuss some NBA stuff also.
Free Play: N texas and Arkansas State Over 144.5
This game each team should see about 67-71 possesions each. Both teams have been playing extremly well on Offense and North Texas has played just horrible on defense. With each team shooting really well as of late and the horrible defense North Texas is playing this should go over. Don't forget Arkansas State sits tied for first in the Sun Belt West Division and is looking for redemption on North Texas from a humiliatiing 19 point loss in North Texas back in Jan. Look for them to put a big effort in against this struggling defense.
I do want to say that the next few days in the NBA are going to be limited with any picks from me. I just can not get over all of the trades that have gone down and some of the big name players moving to a new team that can cause major line moves. There was also a lot of mid level players that moved that can help alot of teams out in different ways. It will take a few games to see how these players all mold together. For the next few days It will be College Basketball or nothing from me.
I am going to be heading back to VA tomorrow so my wife and I can find a house to move into before my wife starts he new job in the begining of April in VA. I am going to be very limited with time this weekend looking at houses tomorrow afternoon and Saturday so I might not have many plays. I will do my best though to get a play for us. If I have to handicapp up until midnight tomorrow once I check into my hotel room them I will. With Saturday being such a huge card I am going to have to throw a game out for all my readers.
Hope everyone has a good night and a solid weekend lets make some cash so we can enjoy out weekend even more.
Well what can I say about last night? Boston played outstanding the second half to break the tie going to half time and come away with a blowout victory. That is why they play four quarters folks. I am going to jump back to College Basketball tonight and make a play on the VCU and Drexel total.
Free Play: VCU and Drexel under 125.
VCU comes into this game tonight struggling offensively over the last three games in which they are averaging just 59.3 points per game and are 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS. The defense has not been that impressive either allowing 69.3 points per game in those 3 games. If you look at those last three games they played in it was against very good defensive teams (Wichita State, George Mason and Old Dominion). They now have to face a slow pace Drexel team who plays outstanding defense and only averages 64 possessions per game at home this year. The under is 4-0 the last four road games as an underdog of .5-6.5. The under is 5-2 the last 7 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Drexel enters this matchup playing outstanding defense this season. The Dragons are allowing just 59.1 points per game on the year while at home though allow just 55.2 points per game. The outstanding defensive play from Drexel has helped under backers cash in on four of the last five Drexel home games. Drexel’s offense has taken a hit the last five games averaging just 56.4 points per game which under backers has cashed four of the last five games. The under is 7-4 this season in Drexel games where the total is 120-129.5. The under is 11-4 in conference games for Drexel this season. The under is 6-1 the last 7 games for Drexel as a favorite. The under is 4-1 the last five games for Drexel against teams with a winning % above .600. The under is 6-0 in Drexel’s last six games after a win.
These two teams played once already this season a game that finished with just 100 total points in a game that had a posted total of 133. The books have adjusted the total for this game but I just don’t fee l that it is enough. Drexel’s struggling offense along with their outstanding defensive play and VCU’s struggling offense this game has all the makings of an under. I think this game finishes in the 117-122 range. Lets play the under in this game and cash a winning ticket.
Well I did not come through like I expected yesterday but that is ok we move on to what I like for tonight. I am going to jump over to the NBA in game that I feel alot of people don't expcect this team to compete.
Free Play: Golden Stater Warriors 4.5
We all know that Boston is a top 5 team in this league and that they should win this game but can they cover this line though.
Golden State comes into this game playing some solid basketball as of late. The Warriors have won three in a row going into the break, four of their last five and seven of their last nine. The teams that the Warriors have beaten are not slouches they are playoff contending teams (NO, OKC, Denver, Chicago, Utah).
Boston of course has put up amazing numbers on the year but for some reason this Celtics team has struggled in the past in Golden State. Golden State has actually won the last five meeting against Boston in Golden State. The other concern right now is the struggling offense for Boston in which they are averaging just 89 points per game the last five games which is 8.9 points lower then their season average.
I do not see Boston blowing this Golden State team out tonight. Look for the Warriors to keep this one close and do not be surprised if the Warriors did pull this game out. Take the points with the home underdog and cash this free play winning ticket.
Well I hope everyone jumped on that over last night in the UCLA and Cal game to give us another Free Play winner. There is not a huge card today but I do have two total plays that I like and the one is my Top College Basketball play of the day in the Big East and the other is my free play in the Central FL and UTEP game.
Free Play: C. Florida and UTEP under 129.5
Tonight’s matchup features two teams that are both struggling on the offensive side of the ball as of late. The Central Florida Knights are averaging just 60.8 points per game the last five games which is 7.4 points lower then their season average. The UTEP Miner are averaging just 64.2 points per game the last five games which is 6.1 points per game lower then their season average.
The defense from both of these teams continues to play outstanding like they have all year. The Knights are allowing just 62.6 points per game the last five games which are about what they allow on the season. UTEP on the other hand is allowing just 61.4 points per game the last five games which is about 2 points lower then their season average. UTEP this season at home has stepped up their defense even more allowing just 59.6 points per game but has even improved over their last five home games allowing just 57.6 points per game.
There are few trends I like for this game tonight.
-The under is 8-1 this season for UTEP at home this season.
-The under is 5-3 this season for C Florida on the road this season.
-The under is 8-2 this season for UTEP against teams above .500.
-The under is 9-5 this season for C Florida against teams above .500.
-The under is 12-2 for UTEP as a favorite this season.
-The under is 5-0 the last five games for C. Florida in Conference play.
-The under is 4-1 the last five games for C. Florida after a loss.
-The under is 7-2 the last nine games for UTEP in Conference Play.
These two teams are struggling on offense and the defense has been outstanding all year for them. We should see 65-68 possessions from each of these two teams tonight and with poor shooting as of late and strong defense this game is going to under the total. Let’s grab the under and cash us a free play winner tonight in this Conference USA matchup.
Well everyone I made the trip from Bethlehem PA to Fairfax Va and my family and I are set up in pretty nice hotel. I took my son to the pool ate some dinner and now he is out cold sleeping peacefully. The wife is doing work and I have gotten a chance to look at some of tomorrows games and tonight's late game. I want throw out to anyone for tonights game a possible play.
If anyone is interested we might want to make a play on the Over in the UCLA and Cal game.
Yes UCLA has played outstanding defense the last 5 games allowing just under 58 points per game. The problem though tonight is they face a team in Cal who plays a fast pace game averaging 72 possesions per game at home this season while UCLA averages 72 possesions per game on the road. Cal has played horrile defense as of late allowing 75 plus points in 5 of their last six games while the offense has scored more then 70 points in 7 of their last 9 games. Cal has played 18 games this season against teams above .500 and they have seen 15 of those 18 go over the posted total.
I feel this game is going to go over the total tonight so I will make a small play on the over in this game tonight.
Good Luck Everyone lets cash this winner tonight!
Well it was 1-1 yesterday for the free plays. Today I don't have anything. I am getting ready to head out on the road to Virginia and I have not had much time to do any research. I was going to make a play on S. Alabama and Denver to go under the total but I feel we lost too much value with the total dropping from 129 to 126.5. I will be doing my research tonight once I get checked into my hotel for tomorrow's games and I will be back with a free play winner tomorrow. Good Luck Everyone with any games that you play today.
Wow another disappointing loss from Tenn Martin who was up by 5 at half while getting 4 points and they end up losing by 6. Man I just do not know what to say. Well I said if I found another game I would throw it out for everyone. Here is my night play I like. If you want to get on this play jump on it now the sharps are hittng this game and it is moving.
Evansville and Murray State under 129....
This line is already at 128 at some outlets so jump on it now there are 74% of the bets coming in on the over and the line is going down. That will tell you where the big money is going. My personal numbers have this game finishing at 126 points. Let's get this winner tonight.
Good Luck Everyone!
Well that was a horrible free play last night that just never had a chance. Like I say you will have those nights, that is what makes this business so interesting. You just have to come back the next day and step up your game. Thjs is going to be a vey short blog today since my Wife, Son and I are packing sme stuff to head down to Virginia for my wife to have her 3rd intervies for a job there. So I probably wont have many long blogs the next few days but I will put some picks out that I like.
Todays Play: Tenn-Martin 3.5
I am going to play against Bradley a team that is just 1-9 SU on the road this season and has yet to be a road favorite all year. Tenn-Martin does play competitive basketball at home hence why they are 6-1 ATS at home this year and especially against tams under .500 in which they are 4-0 ATS. I will take the Skyhawks of Tenn-Martin and the points and don't be surprised if they win outright.
Here are a few leans I like for today also.
St. Peters 4
Iowa St 4.5
Montana 5
I might be back on later tonight after I get my stuff done hopefully I can find maybe another winner for the late night games. Good Luck Everyone!
Alright everyone I have found a free play that I really like today. The college basketball card is not a big one today but I have a paid play up that is real solid and will produce another winner. The Free Play that I have is going to produce us another winner to get me back to my winning ways. I am going to make a play on a total in the Kent State and Drexel game.
Free Play: Kent State and Drexel Under 121.5
When you look at this game and see that Kent State is averaging 81.3 points per game the last three games and allowing 77.7 points per game you have to wonder why the under 121.5. The teams that Kent State has played are faster pace teams with more possessions per game while Drexel is a slower pace team averaging just 64 possessions at home and only 61 possessions the last three games. No matter how fast Kent State tries to play they are going to see Drexel slow it down on offense and set up their shots and with how well Drexel plays defense, Kent State have problems scoring on them.
Kent State is averaging 69 points per game this season but that drops to just 65.1 points per game on the road. When you look at some of these teams that Kent State has played, that play a slower pace game with fewer possessions and good defense they have played lower scoring games. They played Central Michigan, S. Florida, LA Monroe, and Ball State. These are all teams that play decent defense and a slow pace and Kent Stats has played these teams to their pace. Kent State has seen the under go 7-4 this year away from home. The under is 9-2 this season for Kent State against teams above .500. The under is 5-2 this season for Kent State after a loss. This season as an underdog the under is 7-1 for Kent State. The under is 1-0 this year for Kent State on 1 day of rest.
Drexel is a very slow pace team with an offense that eats up the clock and sets up their plays. The offense has been nothing spectacular the last five games averaging 54.8 points per game. The defense is playing great allowing just 55.6 points per game the last five games. The last five home games for Drexel they have allowed an average of just 54 points per game. The under is 6-4-1 this season for Drexel at home. The under is 9-1 the last 10 games for Drexel overall. The under is 5-1 this season for Drexel after a loss. The under is 4-2 this season for Drexel as a favorite of 7 points or less. The under is 7-1 this season for Drexel on two days of rest in which they are allowing just 53.1 points per game and averaging 59.7 points per game.
I am looking at this game to be a slow pace game with good defense from both teams and this should end up in the 115-118 point range. I am going to jump on the under in this game to get me a free play winner tonight and for all you readers.
Well everyone last night was a tough one. I got UAB at 3.5 so I missed the push by a .5 point if anyone waited and got the 4 you got the push and I some of the sportsboks had it at 4.5 so then you got the win. Congrats to those that did wait.Those days happen though you win some you lose some. I have been going solid the last few days going 9-5 the last 14 games on free plays and a solid 7-1 the last 8 paid plays on my College Basektball Top Plays. It has been a good month and I hope to keep that going. For tonight though I do not have a free play.
I have looked over this card numerous times and did my research and I was only able to find one play that I like and that is my College Basketball Top Play today in my paid plays. I am not going to force a free play since I do play all my free plays and I just don't feel comfortable with what I have seen. I am not that kind of handicapper to force plays when I am not 100% sure on them. These days happen The NBA has a small card and the College LInes are getting tougher with the end of the season coming upon us. I do have a few leans on games I did like but I just don't have enough to back up the play.
Leans:
SF Portland Under 134.5
Charleston Citadel Over 140
Charleston -9
Mid Tenn St -1.5
I am hopping to be back with a free play for everyoen tomorrow even though the NBA is on their All Star Break and the College Card is not a large one. I hope everyone has a good night and check back tomorow for my free play.
It has been a great run with the free plays as of late, hitting the over last night in the Kings and Thunder games now moves me to 9-4 the last 13 games. I am looking to get us another win tonight as I jump over to College Basketball and will make a play on the UAB at Memphis game. My paid plays have been red hot going 6-1 the last 7 College Basketball Top Plays. I have another College Basketball Top Play for tonight that is a road underdog that should win outright.
Free Play: UAB 3.5
I am going to start by saying this is a huge revenge game for UAB who was beat by Memphis in overtime at home back in January The UAB Blazers sit at the top of the Conference USA standings with Memphis one game back and I am sure they are not going to want to give that up without a fight.
The UAB Blazers (18-6, 8-3) enters tonight matchup winning four of their last five games while going 3-2 ATS and 2-0 ATS as an underdog. The Blazers have been playing outstanding defense as of late allowing just 59.8 points per game the last five games with the offense averaging 66 points per game. This season UAB is averaging 66.1 points per game on the road while allowing just 64.1 points per game going 7-4 SU away from home and 9-2 ATS. The Blazers are 4-0 ATS the last four road games against teams with a home winning % greater then .600. UAB is 6-1 ATS the last seven road games as an underdog of .5-6.5. UAB is 9-3 the last 12 games following an ATS loss.
The Memphis Tigers (19-6, 7-3) enters tonight’s matchup looking to take over the Conference USA top spot. Memphis has played well the last three games going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. The defense is allowing just 60.3 points per game the last three games which are 9.5 points lower then their season average. The offense though has taken a bit of a hit those last three games averaging just 64 points per game which is 11.5 points lower then their season average. This season Memphis is averaging 78.8 points per game while allowing 67.6 points per game. Memphis is 14-2 SU at home this season while going just 5-8 ATS. Memphis is just 3-5 ATS at home though against teams that is above .500. The Tigers are just 5-9 ATS on the year as a favorite. The Tigers though are just 6-13 ATS the last 19 games as a home favorite.
This is going to be a great game tonight. I really feel though that UAB is going to bring their best tonight to not give up that Conference lead and to get some revenge on Memphis from that loss earlier this season. More times then not when a team in Memphis that wins on the road as an underdog then comes home is usually a bigger favorite then 3.5 points. The odds makers know that UAB is going to give Memphis all they can handle tonight. Play the road underdog and do not be surprised if they pull out the outright win but I will take the 3.5 points and cash this winning free play again.
Well that was a tough one to swallow yesterday having Tennessee Tech win by just 2 points. We have those kinds of days but I am still 8-4 the last 12 days on free plays. I look to get back to winning ways today as I jump over to the NBA for my free play in the Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder games.
Free Play: Sacramento Kings and Oklahoma City Thunder Over 209
I would like to start by saying these two teams played 3 days ago and they finished with just 196 points which was 12.5 points below the posted total. These two teams also played back on 12/17/10 and finished 13.5 points below the posted total of 202.5. Why am I playing the over in this game today?
Sacramento enters this matchup as one of the top 10 teams for possessions on the road this year averaging 98.6 possessions per game when on the road. The Kings are also a team that does play horrible defense on the road in which they are in the bottom 10 in defense efficiency away from home. The Kings will face an Oklahoma City team that is in the same boat as them though. Oklahoma City is in the top 10 for possessions at home this season while the Thunder are also in the bottom 10 for defense efficiency at home this season.
Sacramento comes into this game just 1-4 the last five games but is 3-2 ATS. The Kings are averaging 102.8 points per game the last five games while allowing 105.8 points per game. Sacramento has had their struggles on the road this year where they are just 6-16 SU while going 11-11 ATS. The Kings are averaging 98.9 points per game on the road this season while allowing 105.8 points per game. Sacramento though has averaged 103.8 points per game their last five road games while allowing just 100.6 points per game. Sacramento has played nine games on the road this season against teams in the top 10 in possessions at home and they have seen the total go over five out of those nine games. The Kings are averaging 104 points per game while allowing 110 points per game in those nine games. Sacramento has played 11 games on the road against teams in the bottom ten in defense efficiency at home this season and has seen the total go over in six of those 11 games. The Kings are averaging 102 points per game while allowing 105 points per game.
Oklahoma City enters this matchup just 3-2 SU the last five games while going 2-3 ATS. The Thunder are averaging 105.2 points per game the last five games while allowing 102.8 points per game. Oklahoma City this year is averaging 107 points per game at home while allowing 102.8 points per game. The Thunder has had very good success at home this year going 18-8 SU but just 13-13 ATS. The Thunder has seen 19 of their 26 home games go over the posted total this year. Oklahoma City this season has played 11 games at home against teams in the top 10 in possessions on the road and they have seen nine of those 11 games go over the total. The Thunder is averaging 111 points per game in those 11 games while allowing 104 points per game. Oklahoma City has played 10 games at home this season against teams in the bottom 10 in defense efficiency on the road and they have seen eight of those 10 games go over the posted total. In those ten games the Thunder are averaging 113 points per game while allowing 101 points per game.
The Kings and the Thunder both play a very fast pace game. We are going to see that again tonight and with both of these teams have weaker defenses there is going to be scoring. The first two meeting between these clubs did involve a lot of possessions but what you want to look at is how horrible they both have shot the three point shot. Oklahoma City in two games against the Kings this year is 5 for 28 from three point land. That is horrible for a team that shoots over 35% from behind the arc. The Kings are in the same boat making just 3 of their 23 three point shots in the first two games. I do not think that will continue tonight and with these teams hitting some threes and the fast pace they play this game is going to go over the total. The books do not give away money and with the first two meeting going under the total why would they open this line up at 208. This will be a higher scoring game so jump on the over in this game and cash another winning ticket.
Well I cam through with another free play winner yesterday even though I had to sweat it out and get the .5 point cover it is still a win for us. I am now 8-3 the last 11 games and I look to find us another winner today. I am going to stay in College Basketball for today’s play and make a play on Tennessee State at Tennessee Tech games.
Free Play: Tennessee Tech -4
The Tennessee State Tigers enters this matchup tonight really struggling as of late. The Tigers are 1-4 SU the last five games while going 0-5 ATS. The recent struggles from the Tigers are on both ends of the ball. The Tigers are averaging just 66 points per game the last five games while shooting just 40.6% which is 3.1% lower then their season average. The defense from the Tigers are allowing 72.4 points per game and allowing teams to shoot 49.2% on them in the last five games. Tennessee State is 0-5 ATS the last five games after a loss. The Tigers on the road the last five games are just 1-4 ATS. The Tigers are just 1-4 ATS the last five games on 1 day of rest. Tennessee State is 0-5 ATS the last five games against the Ohio Valley Conference. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS the last six games as a road underdog of .5-6.5.
The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles come into this game playing solid basketball as of late. The Golden Eagles are 3-2 SU the last five games while going 4-1 ATS. The Golden Eagles success over the last five games has to be the outstanding defensive play they are getting. The Golden Eagles are allowing just 64 points per game the last five games which is 10.2 points lower then their season average. The offense has cooled down the last five games averaging just 64.4 points per game which is 8 points lower then their season average. Tennessee Tech is 3-0 ATS this season as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Golden Eagles are 10-6 in the Ohio Valley Conference this season. The Golden Eagles are 4-1 the last five games against teams below .500 The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS the last five games after a ATS win.
This is a revenge game for Tennessee Tech tonight. The Golden Eagles lost at Tennessee State back on January 21 by 6 points’ in which they were a 5.5 point underdog and they outrebounded the Tigers, Shot a better % from 3 point land, had less turnover. The problem though for the Golden Eagles they shot just 45% from the Free Throw Line. Look for the Golden Eagles to come out tonight ready for this game and should take care of business on their home floor. My final numbers are this game is Tennessee Tech 74 Tennessee State 65. Play the home favorite in this game and cash another winning free play ticket tonight.
Well I was wrong last night with the over in the Thunder and Kings game. Those two teams shot very poorly consdering they both had very high possesion totals. Well I move on from that, I am 7-3 the last10 games and 4-1 the last five games on my paid plays as I look to pick up a winer today. I am going to jump over to College Basketball for this one in a huge revenge game today in the Fairfield at St. Peters game.
The Fairfield Stags will head out on the road today to take on the St. Peters Peacocks in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Showdown between the top two teams in this conference.
Fairfield (19-5, 12-2) enters this matchup winning seven of their last eight games while going 4-4 ATS. Fairfield has been very successful this year due to the outstanding defensive play from them. The Stags are allowing just 57.4 points per game on the season while allowing just 56.2 points per game on the road. The offense for Fairfield is averaging 65.5 points per game on offense but drops five points to 60.4 points per game on the road. Fairfield is 8-3 SU this season away from home while going just 4-5 ATS. Fairfield this season on the road after a win are just 3-3 ATS while going 1-3 ATS on less then 2 days of rest. Fairfield is just 1-3 ATS this season on 1 day of rest averaging 68.3 points per game and allowing 61.3 points per game.
St. Peters (15-10, 10-4) enters this matchup playing some very good basketball as of late. The Peacocks are 6-1 SU the last seven games while going 6-1 ATS. The success for the Peacocks as of late is the outstanding defensive play from them in which they are allowing just 56.4 points per game while the offense is averaging 69.3 points per game in the last seven games. St. Peters this season at home is 8-1 SU while going 6-1 ATS while going 1-0 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Peacocks at home this season re averaging 70.7 points per game while allowing just 58.6 points per game. St. Peters is 10-4 ATS this season in conference play. The Peacocks are 10-5 ATS this season after scoring less then 75 points the previous game and 12-6 ATS after allowing less then 75 points the previous game. St. Peters is 4-1 ATS the last five games at home against teams with a road winning % above .600. St. Peters is 3-1 ATS at home this year after a win.
This is a huge revenge game for St. Peters. Fairfield beat this Peacocks team by 27 points in Fairfield back in early January. These two teams both sit at the top of the conference standings and I am sure St. Peters would love to gain a game on this Fairfield team with a win today. Look for St. Peters to continue to play their outstanding defense and for Fairfield to struggle on the road offensively against this very good defensive team. Let’s play the home underdog with the points in this one to pull the outright win to cash us a winning ticket today.
I really hope everyone is jumping on these free picks as of late with me being this hot going 7-2 the last nine games. I am going to jump over to the NBA tonight for my free play with a total play in the Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings game. Don’t forget my free plays have been hot my but paid plays are 3-1 the last four games as I have a 2 for 1 up for sale today in college basketball.
Free Pick: Oklahoma City and Sacramento over 209
Oklahoma City enters tonight’s matchup winner of three of their last five games while going 3-2 ATS. The Thunder have seen four of those last five games go over the posted total. Oklahoma City is allowing 103.6 points per game the last five games and averaging 108 points per game. The defense for Oklahoma City as of late on the road has been nothing but spectacular allowing 106 points per game the last five road games which is four points higher then their season average. The offense has put up very good numbers over the last five road games averaging 109.2 points per game. The Thunder has seen four of their last five road games finish above 209 total points. The Thunder has seen 16 of their 23 games go over the posted total this season against teams that are below .500. The over is 12-6 for the Thunder this season after a loss. Oklahoma City has seen the over go 18-5 as a favorite of 6.5 or less points. The over is 4-1 the last five games for the Thunder when allowing 100 plus points the previous game.
Sacramento enters tonight’s matchup struggling as of late going 1-4 the last five games while going 3-2 ATS though. The Kings are in a tough stretch right now playing their 7th straight game against a playoff contending team. Sacramento over the last five games is allowing 102.6 points per game while averaging just 99.2 points per game. The Kings over the last three games is allowing 107.3 points per game while averaging 101.3 points per game the last three games. The over is 4-1 the last five games for the Kings at home. The over is 4-1 the last five games against teams above .500. The over is 6-1 the last seven games as an underdog of .5-4.5. The over is 5-1 the last six games against teams with a winning road record. The over is 7-3 the last 10 games when scoring 100 plus points the game before.
These two teams are going to see about 97-100 possessions each tonight. The defense from both teams has struggled as of late and the offense should see some good looks from both teams tonight. Look for this to be a faster pace game and we should see this game go up and over the total tonight. Play the over tonight and cash another free play winning ticket.
Well another free play winner last night moves me to 6-2 the last eight days to go along with my paid play winner to move me to 3-0 the last three games. Tonight I look to keep it going with my paid plays with my NBA total of the week going tonight and looking to keep my free play success as of late going for all my readers. I am going to jump over to College Basketball for a free play on the total in the St. Peters Peacocks and Marist Red Foxes game.
Free Play: St. Peters and Marist under 123.
St. Peters (14-10, 9-4) enters tonight’s matchup winning five of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS in those games. The Peacocks success as of late has been the outstanding defensive play from them. St. Peters is allowing just 56.8 points per game the last six games in which teams are shooting just 32.6 % against them. The offense has been pretty efficient averaging 69.8 points per game in those six games which is 10.3 points higher then their season average. The Peacocks though have struggled on the road as of late offensively averaging just 54.4 points per game the last five road games while the defense is allowing 59.8 points per game in which the Peacocks have seen four of their last five road games stay under the posted total. The under this season for St. Peters on the road is 1-9-1. The under is 13-3 the last 16 road games for the Peacocks against teams with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 the last five games for St. Peters as a road favorite.
Marist (4-21, 3-10) enters tonight’s matchup struggling this season. The Red foxes are just 1-9 SU the last ten games while going just 4-6 ATS. The Red Foxes this season at home are averaging 64.2 points per game and allowing 69.6 points per game. The last five games at home for Marist they are averaging just 59.4 points per game and allowing 63.4 points per game. The under is 2-1 this season for Marist in games where the total is 120-129.5. The under is 6-2 this season for Marist against teams that are above .500. The under is 4-1 the last five home games for Marist. The under is 9-3 the last 12 games for Marist on Friday’s. The under is 4-1 the last five games between these two teams in Marist.
St. Peters is really struggling on the offensive side of the ball the last few games on the road and their defense has really been playing well and keeps them in games. Marist is struggling to score points as of late and is playing well on defense at home the last five games. These two teams should average about 65-66 possessions tonight each and with how well the defense has been playing from these two teams this will be a lower scoring game. Look for these two teams to stay under the posted total tonight with a game that ends in the 118-121 range.
Well another free play winner last night moves me to 6-2 the last eight days to go along with my paid play winner to move me to 3-0 the last three games. Tonight I look to keep it going with my paid plays with my NBA total of the week going tonight and looking to keep my free play success as of late going for all my readers. I am going to jump over to College Basketball for a free play on the total in the St. Peters Peacocks and Marist Red Foxes game.
Free Play: St. Peters and Marist under 123.
St. Peters (14-10, 9-4) enters tonight’s matchup winning five of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS in those games. The Peacocks success as of late has been the outstanding defensive play from them. St. Peters is allowing just 56.8 points per game the last six games in which teams are shooting just 32.6 % against them. The offense has been pretty efficient averaging 69.8 points per game in those six games which is 10.3 points higher then their season average. The Peacocks though have struggled on the road as of late offensively averaging just 54.4 points per game the last five road games while the defense is allowing 59.8 points per game in which the Peacocks have seen four of their last five road games stay under the posted total. The under this season for St. Peters on the road is 1-9-1. The under is 13-3 the last 16 road games for the Peacocks against teams with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 the last five games for St. Peters as a road favorite.
Marist (4-21, 3-10) enters tonight’s matchup struggling this season. The Red foxes are just 1-9 SU the last ten games while going just 4-6 ATS. The Red Foxes this season at home are averaging 64.2 points per game and allowing 69.6 points per game. The last five games at home for Marist they are averaging just 59.4 points per game and allowing 63.4 points per game. The under is 2-1 this season for Marist in games where the total is 120-129.5. The under is 6-2 this season for Marist against teams that are above .500. The under is 4-1 the last five home games for Marist. The under is 9-3 the last 12 games for Marist on Friday’s. The under is 4-1 the last five games between these two teams in Marist.
St. Peters is really struggling on the offensive side of the ball the last few games on the road and their defense has really been playing well and keeps them in games. Marist is struggling to score points as of late and is playing well on defense at home the last five games. These two teams should average about 65-66 possessions tonight each and with how well the defense has been playing from these two teams this will be a lower scoring game. Look for these two teams to stay under the posted total tonight with a game that ends in the 118-121 range.
Well what a bad call by me last night thinking that Air Force was going to give BYU a competitive game. Well I am now 5-2 the last seven games as I look to get back to winning ways tonight with my free plays. My paid play came through again last night as the Bulls 2 got the outright win in Utah.. I am going to jump over to the NBA tonight, even with the small card I have found a play in the Dallas and Denver game that I like.
Free Play: Dallas Mavericks 3.
Dallas (37-15) enters tonight’s matchup quietly on a ten game winning streak while going 6-4 ATS in that streak and 2-0 ATS as an underdog during the streak. During this 10 game winning streak they have played five of the game on the road in which they are averaging 100.8 points per game which is 3.8 point higher then their season road average. The defense is playing well themselves allowing just 94.4 points per game over that span. Dallas has played really well this year on the road against teams above .500, going 10-3 ATS and the Mavs are 6-4 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 points or less. The Mavs are 12-4 the last 16 games as a road underdog. Dallas is 5-1 ATS after scoring 100 plus points the previous game.
Denver (30-23) enters this matchup really in complete disarray. The Nuggets are just 2-3 the last five games and have gone 2-3 ATS. Denver is really struggling on the defensive side of the ball as of late. Denver is allowing 105.4 points per game the last five games but they are averaging 109 points per game on offense. The Nuggets defense has allowed 100 plus points in 13 of their last 14 games. Allowing that many points tonight to a Dallas team that plays outstanding defense is going to be tough to overcome especially with all the turmoil going on in this locker room right now. Denver is 0-3-1 the last four games when playing on 0 days rest. Denver is 1-5 ATS this season after a 0-4 point loss.
Look for Dallas to come out tonight and give this Denver team a battle. The Mavericks have played top teams this season strong and that should happen again tonight. With all of the turmoil going on in the locker room in Denver I think it is going to get to them again tonight in which they need to be focused against a talented team like Dallas tonight. Play Dallas plus the three points tonight and don’t be surprised if they win this game outright.
It was another strong night of picks last night. Hit my free play to now push me to 5-1 over the last six games in free plays and I hit my Total of the week for my paid plays. I am going to jump into college basketball tonight to make a free pick on the BYU and Air Force game.
Free Play: Air Force 10
I am going to start by saying that I know BYU is a very good team and that they are going to win this game but I do not see them covering the points in this game. When you are a top ten team in the country you are going to get every team that plays you to step up their game and that is what they are going to see tonight from this Air Force club.
BYU (22-2-, 8-1) enters this matchup tonight off a 14 point home win as a 7 point favorite their last time out over UNLV. BYU is averaging 84.2 points per game on the road this season but allowing 73.3 points per game away from home. The Cougars are 8-1 on the road this season but they are just 5-8 ATS away from home on the season. BYU is 3-6 ATS this season on the road against team that are above .500. The Cougars are just 5-10 ATS this season when they score 75 or more points the previous game. BYU is just 3-6 ATS this year as a favorite of 10 plus points. BYU is just 4-9 ATS against a team with a winning home record.
Air force (13-9, 4-5) enters this matchup looking to get revenge on a BYU team that beat them by 10 in BYU back in early January. The Falcons have had good success at home this year in which they are 9-3 SU and 4-3 ATS. The Falcons owe a lot of their success to the defense that they play. The Falcons are allowing just 60.6 points pr game at home this season and are only allowing teams to shoot 38.1 % on them at home. Air Force is 7-2 ATS this season against conference opponents. Air Force is 4-2 ATS this season as an underdog of 10 plus points. The Falcons are 9-0 ATS the last nine games after allowing 50 points or less the previous game.
Look for BYU to win this game since they are much better then Air Force but look for Air Force to keep this game within 10 points. The Falcons have played outstanding defense this year and should be able to score some points on this BYU team at home. BYU will score points but I don’t see them putting up 76 points like the last meeting between these two teams. Look for this game to end up with a BYU win 71-67. I will take the 10 points with Air Force and cash another winning free play ticket.
Well I missed with the free play last night now putting me at 4-1 the last five days. I am going to jump over to the NBA tonight to make a play on a total in the Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks games.
Free Play: Toronto and Milwaukee under 194
Toronto (14-37) enters tonight’s matchup on looking to build some momentum after picking up their first win in 13 games. Toronto’s 13 game losing streak came at the hands of poor offensive play and poor defensive play. The Raptors played eight road games in that 13 game losing streak in which they averaged just 89.1 points per game and allowed 103.3 point per game. In those last eight road game the Raptors saw the under cash seven out of the eight times. Toronto does come into this game on three days of well needed rest and that is when they play their best defense on three days of rest this season. Toronto is allowing just 97 points per game on three days of rest but their offense struggles with the extra rest averaging just 89 points per game. The Raptors have seen the under cash two out of the two games they have played on three days’ rest this season. The under is 7-1 in the Raptors last eight games as a road underdog. Toronto has also seen the under cash 4-0 out of the last four games after scoring 100 plus points the previous game.
Milwaukee (19-30) enters this matchup struggling themselves as of late. The Bucks have lost four straight while going just 1-3 ATS in those games and has seen the under cash in three of those four games. The offense has been in those four game averaging just 86.8 points per game which is five points lower than their season average. The defense has allowed 96.5 points per game in that four game losing streak which is unlike Milwaukee who on the season allows teams to average just 93.1 points per game on them. The under this season for Milwaukee at home is 15-7. The under is 7-3 this season for Milwaukee on two days of rest in which they allowing teams to average just 92.3 points per game against them in those 10 games. The under is 6-1 in Milwaukee’s last seven games after a SU loss. The under is 13-3 in Milwaukee’s last 16 games as a home favorite. The under is 6-0 the last six games at home for Milwaukee against a team with a losing road record.
These two met back in late January and we saw the final score end up with 226 points that flew way over the posted total of 192.5. The books for some reason open this game at 192. Both of these teams are struggling on offense right now. And with Milwaukee a team that plays a much slower pace than Toronto we will not see as many possessions for the Raptors as usual tonight. So with fewer possessions for Toronto and having a struggling offense up against a very good Milwaukee defense and a struggling Milwaukee offense right now has all the makings for an under in this game tonight.
It was another solid day yesterday with my free play on Rider 7 getting the outright win on the road at Fairfield. That win has pushed me to four in a row now of free play winners. I really hope everyone is taking advantage of these and cashing some winning tickets. I am going to stay in College Basketball again tonight with a total play that I like in the La Tech and New Mexico State game. Don’t forget I do have a NBA home underdog up for sale today that is going to cash some winning tickets.
Free Play: La. Tech and New Mexico State over 140 points.
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (11-13) enter tonight’s matchup not playing bad basketball as of late. The Bulldogs are 2-3 SU the last five games but are 4-1 ATS. La Tech is averaging 64 point per game in those five games and allowing just 65.6 points per game. The problem though is La tech has struggled on the road this season. The Bulldogs are averaging 64.2 points per game on the road while allowing 74.5 points per game. The horrible defensive play from the Bulldogs on the road has cause the over to cash in seven of their eleven road games. La. Tech does play a faster pace game in which they have averaged 71.7 possessions per game on the road this year. The Bulldogs now get a chance to go up against a New Mexico State team that is very fast themselves and is not playing very good defense as of late.
New Mexico State Aggies (12-12) come into this game playing a fast pace this season. The Aggies are averaging 72.5 possessions at home this year and over the last three games that has increased to 79.8 possessions. New Mexico State averages 76.9 points per game on their home floor this season while allowing 68.8 points per game. The last three games though the defense has taken a bit of a hit allowing 80 points per game but the offense has averaged 84 points per game in that span. The over is 6-4 this year for New Mexico State and is 3-0 at home against teams below .500. The Aggies do come into this game well rested having the past three days off and when they do have that kind of rest the offense is averaging 79 points per game and the defense is allowing 77.8 points per game and they have seen the over cash eight out of nine times. The over is 12-3 in the Aggies last 15 games as a favorite of 7-12.5 points. The over is 21-6-1 in the Aggies last 28 games as a favorite.
My final thought on this game is that these two teams will play their fast pace game and we should see a lot of points in this game. The last five games between these two teams the average total score is 146.6 points per game. I really believe that La. Tech will be able to score on this New Mexico State team and the Aggies will get their fair share of points. Let’s play the over tonight and cash another winning free play ticket.
I really hope everyone is jumping on board with these free play winners as we hit another one last night with the under in the Atlanta and Washington game. If that is not enough I have been red hot with my paid plays going 3-1 over the last three days. You are going to want to start to jump on board with these to build that bankroll that you have. I am going to go back to college basketball today with my free play in the Rider at Fairfield game. I do have an NBA total play that is up for sale over in my paid plays that is primed for a big winner for us today.
Free Play: Rider 7.
Rider Broncs (16-8, 8-4) enters today’s Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference showdown winning four of their last five games while going just 2-3 ATS though in those five games. The offense for Rider is only averaging 66 points per game though the last five game while allowing 65 points per game. Rider has gone 4-1 SU the last five road games while going 3-2 ATS in those games. Rider is averaging 69.6 points per game in those past five road games while allowing 68 points per game. Rider this year is 10-3 ATS on the road and the Broncs have gone 6-1 ATS on the road this year as an underdog. Rider has been very competitive and has kept themselves in games on the road this season against teams above .500 going 6-1 ATS in those seven games. The Broncs are 4-2 ATS this season in day games. The Broncs are 4-1 the last five games they have played on a Sunday. The Broncs are also an amazing 18-5 ATS the last 23 road games.
Fairfield Stags (18-4, 11-1) have had an amazing season this year. The Stags owe their success to the outstanding defense that they have played this year. Fairfield on the season has allowed just 56.3 points per game at home and has allowed teams to shoot just 37.9 % against them on their home floor. The Stags offense is averaging 66.9 points per game at home this season. Fairfield is 5-2 ATS at home on the season and has gone 2-0 ATS at home against teams that are above .500. Fairfield is 9-3 ATS this season in Conference play. The Stags are 16-5 ATS the last 21 games as a favorite but are just 2-8 ATS the last 10 games as a home favorite of 7-12.5 points.
This game is huge for both teams today. Fairfield sits at the top spot in their Conference but I am sure Rider would love to get big road win to move a game closer to Fairfield in the standings. Fairfield went into Rider back on 1/17/11 and came away with an 8 point victory as a 1 point favorite. Look for Rider to really put a big effort into this game today looking for some revenge from that loss at home to Fairfield. Seven points is a lot of points to give a team that has a lot of motivation for this game. The road team in this series is 5-0 ATS the last five games and look for that to continue today. Play the road underdog to keep this game close and get the ATS cover.
Well I came through with another free play winner last night to make it three in a row now. I have good success in college basketball as of late but I am really not finding anything that is jumping out at me. I do have a two for one on my paid plays in college basketball tonight but otherwise I am going to jump back to the NBA to grab #4 in a row for the free plays.
Free NBA Play: Atlanta and Washington Under 195.5.
Atlanta (32-18) enters tonight’s matchup escaping with a one point home win last night against the Clippers. The Hawks have actually played better defense on the road this season then at home. Atlanta is allowing just 94.7 points per game on the road this season while allowing 96.1 Atlanta offensively are averaging 96.3 points per game on the road this season. This season on 0 days rest for Atlanta the Hawks are averaging 96.1 points per game while allowing just 89.5 points per game and have seen 10 of their 15 games on no rest go under the total. Atlanta has seen 9 of their 13 games go under the posted total this year as a favorite of 3.5 points or less. The under is 5-1 the last six games for Atlanta against the Southeast Division. The under is 11-5 the last 16 games following an ATS loss.
Washington (13-36) enters tonight matchup off an 18 point loss last night to Orlando. The Wizards are really struggling offensively to get anything going. The last four games Washington is averaging just 91.5 points per game and has seen three of those four games go under the posted total. The Wizards on the year are averaging though 98.5 points per game at home and allowing 97.9 points per game. The under is 5-1 in Washington’s last six homes games against a team with a winning road record. The under is 24-6 in Washington’s last 30 games as a home underdog. The under is 16-5 in Washington’s last 21 games after a loss. The under is 35-16 in the Wizards last 51 games after allowing 100 plus points the previous game.
Atlanta has a very good defense and after allowing 100 plus points last night we should see a much better defensive effort tonight out of them. Washington has struggled to score points the last four games and to face a defense of Atlanta’s caliber they are going to struggle again tonight. We are going to need Washington’s defense to step up a little bit tonight to keep this game under, which we should see. These two teams both played last night and I do not feel they are going to want to run up and down court exchanging baskets. Look for both teams to slow it down tonight and we should see some good defense that will keep this game under the posted total.
I picked up another free play winner last night making it two in a row now. I am going to stay in College Basketball again tonight with another total play that I like and that should cash another winner.
Free Play: St. Peter’s and Niagara under 123 points.
Well just like last night I am sure people are wondering why play the under when these two teams just played about 20 days ago and the game ended with 134 points on a total that was set at 123.5. Remember that the books don’t give away free money so there is a reason behind this line being set this low.
St. Peter’s (13-9) enters this matchup tonight struggling on the road this season. The Peacocks are just 4-6 on the road and are only averaging 51.9 points per game away from home on the season which is eight points lower then their season average. The Peacocks defense on the road is allowing just 60.7 points per game and teams too shoot just 39.5% against them. St. Peter’s has played even better defense as of late allowing just 55.3 points per game the last three games with a defense efficiency of just .803.
There are a few trends that I like tonight that are in favor of the under for St. Peter’s. The under is 7-1-1 on the road this season for St. Peter’s. The under is 4-0 the last four games on the road for St. Peter’s as a road favorite. The under is 12-3 the last 15 games on the road against a team with a losing home record. The under is 24-8 the last 32 games that St. Peter’s has played on a Friday.
Niagara (4-19) has struggled this season. The Purple Eagles are just 2-5 at home on the season in which they are averaging 64.3 points per game while allowing 72.4 points per game. The last five games though Niagara’s offense has disappeared completely. The Purple Eagles are averaging just 55. 4 points per game the last five games and are shooting just 37.9 %. The Defense for them has improved allowing just 62 points per game which is 10 point lower then their season average.
There are a few trends I like that supports the under for Niagara tonight. The under is 2-3 at home this year for Niagara. The under is 11-4 on the year for Niagara after a loss. The under is 7-2 this season for Niagara against teams above .500. The under is 2-0 this season for Niagara as an underdog less then 10 points. The under is 8-3 for Niagara in Conference play this season. The under is 5-1 the last six game for Niagara against a team with a losing road record.
St. Peters has played great defense this entire season. The last three games they have stepped it up and played even better defense. Niagara is a team that is struggling to score points right now and with a defense that is getting better it should help them compete in a few more games down the stretch. Look for these two teams to play a slower pace game with about 65-68 possessions each and the defense should be able to keep this game under the posted total. Let’s play the under to cash another free play ticket.
Well it feels good to get that first free play win in five days last night with Bowling Green and N. Illinois going over the total. I am going to stay in College Basketball tonight and play another total that I feel the books are off on. I do have a Top Play for sale on a home underdog tonight that will win outright in College Basketball.
Free Play: Murray State and Tennessee State Over 135.5
Let first start by saying some people might question why the over play in this game when these two teams played at the beginning of January and they went under the total and only scored 117 points total. The question is why would the books open this game at 135, 18 points higher then what they finished at last game?
I am going to start by saying that Murray State averages more possessions on the road this year then what they do at home while Tennessee State also averages more possessions at home then on the road. Murray States defense efficiency is 1.040 on the road this year while at home it is .863. That is a big difference from how well they play defense at home then compared to on the road.
Murray State and Tennessee State have both increased their offensive output over the past five games. Murray State is averaging 81.4 points per game the last five games which is 13.3 points higher then their season average. The defense for Murray State has actually decreased the past five games allowing 68 points per game which is 5 points lower than their season average. On the road this season Murray State is allowing teams to shoot 48.6 % on them and allow teams to shoot almost 40% from three point land on the road. Let’s not forget that Murray State is one of the top free throw shooting teams on the road shooting 80.7% from the line away from home this season. Murray State this year in conference is shooting 49.9% from the field.
Tennessee State is averaging 70.4 points per game the last five games which are 2.3 points higher then their season average of 68.1 points per game. The defense from Tennessee State is allowing 72 points per game the last five games which are about their average on the year. The offense efficiency from Tennessee State is 1.063 the last three games and the defense efficiency is 1.140. Tennessee State over their last three homes games are averaging 71.6 points per game.
Here are a few trends that I like for this game.
-The over is 7-1 the last eight games that Murray State has been a road favorite.
-The over is 4-1-1 the last six games against the Ohio Valley Conference.
-The over is 15-5-2 the last 22 games for Murray State after an ATS loss.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State as an underdog.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State in the Ohio Valley Conference.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State as a home dog of .5-6.5
Look for these two teams to have almost 70 possessions each in this game tonight and with how well they have been shooting as of late this game should go over the total. I am going to play the over in this one tonight looking to make it two in a row now. My personal numbers have this game finishing at about 142 points.
I would like to welcome everyone to this blog. I was asked by Orble to take over this blog and will be Posting free sports plays on this blog from here on out. I hope everyone continues to stop by and check out the free play of the day and don't be afraid to post any comments you have on the games that I throw out there.
For your readers that don't know much about me I am a professional sports handicapper with Betfirms.com. I started blogging on Orble to give people insight on sports betting and some of the angles that go into handicapping games. I won't give away all my secrets but I will throw out some good tips on handicapping MLB, NBA, NFL and even College Football and Basketball.
I know a lot of people that are involved with sports handicapping do not like professional handicappers. I am not someone that is here to sell you anything. I am here to help people understand what goes on with sports handicapping. The US stock market has taken a hit for a lot of people and 401 K's are looking horrible right now, so why not look at investing in sports when it is something that a lot us know and if you take the mindset that it is not a get rich quick scheme and look at it as an investment then you could turn it into a profit for later in life.
Well I am going to get back to handicapping my games for today and will be back later today to throw out the free pick of the day.
Less than 24 hours from now, the final piece of this summer's free agent jigsaw will be set in place. What's funny is that the rest of the puzzle doesn't even have a shape until the exact shape of this one piece is determined. Instead of this piece fitting into the rest of the completed puzzle, the puzzle will form around the final piece.
The piece, of course, is LeBron James. LeBron's camp announced this week that he will deliver his decision on ESPN's airwaves in an hour long special to begin at 9 ET. That ESPN so easily relinquished its primetime scheduling--even in the slowest month of the sports year--to accommodate the hoopla is staggering. After a mostly meaningless weekend full of speculation and hearsay, the chips began to fall on Monday as the rest of the free agent class decided to get a piece of the pub before "The Decision" on Thursday. After all, the likes of Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, and Chris Bosh and D-Wade do not want to compete for attention with LBJ.
Conversely, LeBron is not about to let any marquee name announce a decision after he does. No one will choose their next team based on LeBron's decision. This is LeBron's ultimate act of control over this summer: to be the finale of the entire show. Nobody is going to force his hand or cause him to settle for anything less than his first choice. He's been catered to by practically every team in the Eastern Conference and patronized by all the big stars. Although LeBron will make his decision heavily on where he wants to be, there's no doubt that he's carefully weighing the moves that have come before him this week. Though we'll never hear his camp say it, we know that he has been dependent on the movement of Amare, Wade, Bosh, and Johnson from the word "go."
So where do we stand less than a day out from the conclusion of this fascinating week? Aside from Wade and Dirk, all the big fish have found new ponds to swim in. The biggest splash was made by Bosh, who unexpectedly decided to join Wade in Miami after we learned that Toronto would agree to send him to the Cavs (teaming him with LeBron) in a sign-and-trade. For whatever reason, Bosh never liked this option despite knowing that he could play with LeBron and get a max contract from a sign-and-trade that he couldn't get by signing as free agent elsewhere. Wade's return to Miami is unsurprising in spite of some serious flirting with Chicago and the Knicks.
Stoudemire and Joe Johnson don't care about winning; they just wanted to earn max contracts so they can be mentioned with the few max players in the league. For their decisions, they will get cap-straddled teams with very little potential of getting better. But really, any team that has Johnson or Stoudemire as their #1 is going nowhere anyways. It doesn't matter who you surround them with. Congrats to the Knicks and Hawks on their big free agent catches!
Boozer quietly and smartly chose the Bulls, who are good enough to win the East as they stand WITHOUT LeBron. If LeBron puts on a Bulls' hat tomorrow night....game over. Everyone else might as well mail in the next half decade, because the Bulls will win the East for several years in a row. The Bulls might not be done, either. As they stand, Ray Allen could take their mid-level exception (about $5.5 million) and fit right into the starting lineup. If they trade Luol Deng's $9 million contract, they could trot out Derrick Rose, Allen, Joe Alexander/James Johnson, Boozer, and Jo Noah. Phew. If they rope LeBron as well, he might overtake Alexander/Johnson to start at small forward. So look out for the Bulls in '10-'11 regardless of "The Decision."
Now that LeBron has seen Bosh and Wade join up, the idea of a trio in South Beach has to be enticing. There are a guaranteed several championships on that team if he goes there. So why isn't it a slam dunk that he's going to Miami, or even a probability? Because LeBron will not ride another star's coattails, much less come remotely close to the perception that he is. Are we sure that LeBron's greatness isn't more important to him than being the best by measure of championships? Are we sure that LeBron wouldn't rather stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago where he would be the unquestioned alpha dog? Are we sure that he doesn't want to go to the worst team in the NBA (New Jersey), hang with his guy Jay-Z, hit the club with Mikhail Prokhorov, play in a new arena, and resurrect a dead franchise on his own? Are we sure he doesn't want to switch leagues, fix the Clippers, and place himself close to Kobe Bryant, if only in proximity? I'm not sure any of these things isn't true.
We'll have answers to all these questions in less than 24 hours without LeBron so much as addressing them. When he makes his choice, we'll know everything.
The Karma Bet applies to people in sports who simply get what they deserve after making a big decision about his or her career. The Karma Bet sounds like it can only be applied negatively, but it does have some positive examples historically and can go either way. This summer's biggest Karma Bet, however, does not bode well for its recipient. Trevor Ariza, come on down!
Freshly signed Houston Rockets forward Trevor Ariza has to be kicking himself right now, after last week's news that superstar teammate Yao Ming will miss the entire 2009-10 season after undergoing surgery on his left foot for the 3rd time. Less than a month after winning his first NBA title with his hometown LA Lakers, Ariza was a highly coveted free agent, and was due to cash in on some stark improvement to his game.
Everyone assumed that the Lakers had the inside lane to re-sign Ariza, and offered him the mid-level salary exception worth $5.8 million per year over 5 years. Ariza was underwhelmed by the organization's offer, feeling like he earned more money with his clutch performance throughout the Laker playoff run. So Ariza spurned the Lakers and held out for more money from another team. The thing is, he signed with the Rockets for less than $1 million more per season than LA was offering.
I could see this coming from Ariza. Up until this offseason, he was the consummate shut-up, play hard, and fill your role player. He did this immaculately for the Lakers for the better part of 2 seasons, and was vital to the 2009 title. Apparently, a little success went to his head, and a typically NBA ego was born. Characteristic of this ego is an aversion to common sense. "Absolutely, I'll squeeze my salary cap-strapped hometown World Champion team for more money, wait a few days for them to cave in and offer more, change my mind, and then sign with the team that is clearly not as good as my old team for the same amount. That makes perfect sense." Ariza should fire his agent and represent himself from now on.
The Karma has kicked in for Ariza, and he is getting what he deserves for being greedy and egotistical. Yao Ming is out for the season and may have a career-ending injury. Tracy McGrady is injury-prone, mentally brittle, and can't win a meaningful game or series. Ron Artest bolted Houston and switched places with Ariza on a stacked Laker roster. Ariza has has opted for a pot roast despite being offered filet mignon at the same price. Now, he'll toil in Houston as this summer's victim of Karma.
Memo to Lamar Odom (and agent Jeff Schwartz): beware the tale of Trevor Ariza, and avoid doing the EXACT SAME THING.
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Hope youall have a good night and Ill be back tomorrow. 
