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Now It's On



We finally have closure to the LeBron James hoopla. It seemed like this endless media frenzy of analysis, conjecture, and criticism would be open-ended as long as a certain someone remained silent. After all, this certain someone is the standard by which everyone else is measured. For this guy to speak is to put all other statements and critiques to rest. And finally, His Airness himself, Michael Jordan, has spoken.

Everyone has been killing LeBron for joining with the best in the league to reach the mountain top instead of beating them for it. The damage to his legacy is seemingly irreparable, and he hasn't even played a game with the Heat yet. MJ weighed in this weekend essentially echoing the sentiments of everyone else.

The thing is, it carries a lot more punch when the best player ever to play your sport offers an opinion on your career. It also puts the rest of us out of our misery, wrapping up all the conversation with a perspective of someone who actually knows something about excellence in the NBA. I mean, what is there for anyone else to say? Jordan has spoken; who can surpass his opinion?

Charles Barkley is in agreement with MJ about LeBron. In fact, he went a step further and claimed that this move by LeBron means he will never be in the greatest player conversation.

The change he made was not an alpha dog move. It wasn't a winner's move. It was the move of a 25 year-old kid who, above the expectations of his career, simply wanted to enjoy this time of his life as much as possible. To him, that means sacrificing everyone's perception of him and damaging his legacy to play in a great city with close friends. To me, there's nothing wrong with that motivation. In fact, I admire LeBron for making that move, showing more transparency and personality in his decision (NOT transparency in his method, mind you) than we ever get from athletes.

For the record, I applaud LeBron for being true to himself and doing what he wants to do. That's so rare these days with the way that business and image management trump athletes' desires.

There are many reasons why his decision lost him respect basketball-wise, most of which are valid. But there are also a few reasons why his decision earned him respect personally, at least from me.
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Dan Gilbert's Extreme Reaction

Was Dan Gilbert's letter heartfelt, or a ploy to drum up attention and sympathy for Cleveland?


So.....that happened.

LeBron jumped ship in F-you Cleveland fashion by announcing his decision on "The Decision." I didn't see the show, but I inevitably saw the highlights of it, and one thing stuck out to me. Did anyone else think that LeBron looked a little pudgy? He looked very, very round to me, but some close friends pointed out to me that his beard just made it appear that way.

Let's move on. I'm not here to critique or analyze the specific decision, because there's not really much to say. We knew he was choosing among 3-4 teams and that he'd have good reason to pick any one of them. I want to talk about Dan Gilbert's onslaught of cheap shots at LeBron. Here's a transcript of the letter he wrote for the Cavs' website subsequent to LeBron's announcement:

Dear Cleveland, All Of Northeast Ohio and Cleveland Cavaliers Supporters Wherever You May Be Tonight;

As you now know, our former hero, who grew up in the very region that he deserted this evening, is no longer a Cleveland Cavalier.

This was announced with a several day, narcissistic, self-promotional build-up culminating with a national TV special of his "decision" unlike anything ever "witnessed" in the history of sports and probably the history of entertainment.

Clearly, this is bitterly disappointing to all of us.

The good news is that the ownership team and the rest of the hard-working, loyal, and driven staff over here at your hometown Cavaliers have not betrayed you nor NEVER will betray you.

There is so much more to tell you about the events of the recent past and our more than exciting future. Over the next several days and weeks, we will be communicating much of that to you.

You simply don't deserve this kind of cowardly betrayal.

You have given so much and deserve so much more.

In the meantime, I want to make one statement to you tonight:

"I PERSONALLY GUARANTEE THAT THE CLEVELAND CAVALIERS WILL WIN AN NBA CHAMPIONSHIP BEFORE THE SELF-TITLED FORMER 'KING' WINS ONE"

You can take it to the bank.

If you thought we were motivated before tonight to bring the hardware to Cleveland, I can tell you that this shameful display of selfishness and betrayal by one of our very own has shifted our "motivation" to previously unknown and previously never experienced levels.

Some people think they should go to heaven but NOT have to die to get there.

Sorry, but that's simply not how it works.

This shocking act of disloyalty from our home grown "chosen one" sends the exact opposite lesson of what we would want our children to learn. And "who" we would want them to grow-up to become.

But the good news is that this heartless and callous action can only serve as the antidote to the so-called "curse" on Cleveland, Ohio.

The self-declared former "King" will be taking the "curse" with him down south. And until he does "right" by Cleveland and Ohio, James (and the town where he plays) will unfortunately own this dreaded spell and bad karma.

Just watch.

Sleep well, Cleveland.

Tomorrow is a new and much brighter day....

I PROMISE you that our energy, focus, capital, knowledge and experience will be directed at one thing and one thing only:

DELIVERING YOU the championship you have long deserved and is long overdue....

Dan Gilbert

Majority Owner

Cleveland Cavaliers



Pretty scathing stuff right there. Even if Gilbert--and Cavs fans--feel this way, there's no good reason to verbalize it so publicly. Gilbert sounds like a hormonal pregnant woman who impulsively says things that she fully regrets after the fact, except that Gilbert's statement was premeditated and drafted. So there's that.

There's no confusion about how Gilbert feels in reaction to LeBron's decision on his TV special. Maybe that was done in some poor taste on LeBron's part. The argument can be made, though, that Gilbert and Cleveland have no right to feel the way they do. Everything LeBron said about his time with the Cavs, about taking them to new heights, bringing revenue to a depressed downtown, and offering hope for a championship...those things are all true. I don't think that is arrogance or pride or self-righteousness on LeBron's part. I think he's just shooting straight and being honest, which is something we always wish that athletes will do.

Gilbert's statement is unnecessarily vengeful and combative. In his crazed reaction, he makes a hasty promise that Cleveland will win a championship before LeBron does. And he means it. (Side note: I wonder if he looked at his current roster before making that promise).

He uses words like "betrayal", "disloyal", "shocking", "heartless", and "callous" to describe LeBron's decision to leave. Really Dan? Is it really an act of treason to bleed through seven years of terrible teammates and coaching for a superstar who craves to be the best? Did LeBron not sign an extension with your team with no guarantee or down payment on a viable roster? Did LeBron not bring your team from last in NBA attendance to 2nd during his tenure? LeBron was a free agent and was well within his rights to pick among suitors. And that's exactly what he did. Nothing traitorous or malicious about it.

This is all to neglect mentioning the incredibly fickle nature of Gilbert's reaction. If LeBron had said Cleveland instead of Miami, Gilbert would be singing his praises and telling us how much he loves LeBron for his loyalty and courage. Instead, it just feels like we got the prewritten hate speech instead of the prewritten love speech. The perspective in this situation is everything: love LeBron if he stays, hate him and lay him out if he leaves. Its a senseless contradiction that I would expect from a 13 year old.

Gilbert's shocking reaction shows a man in denial that his franchise just crumbled. It was way out of line, undeserved, and intentionally defamatory toward LeBron James. It makes you wonder if Gilbert really meant it.

Which brings me to an interesting theory. Is this a simple attention and sympathy grab by Gilbert? Was this carefully orchestrated (read: not heartfelt) to maximize the positive attention and pity toward the franchise? Is Gilbert a renegade who doesn't care what people think about him as long as it benefits his team? I would not rule any of these things out. The next question is, what is he trying to accomplish or get out of the stunt? There are no free agents left, he doesn't stand to benefit there. GMs, while possibly feeling bad for the Cavs, certainly won't make mercy trades with Cleveland at their own expense. I guess I don't really get what the point is, assuming that this theory checks out.

Anyways, those are my thoughts on Dan Gilbert's statement. After sleeping on it, I wouldn't be surprised if Gilbert regrets writing that letter, both because it is a black eye for his franchise, and because he really didn't mean the things he said about LeBron.

It will be interesting to see if a swift apology follows. Even more interesting will be the first time Miami visits Cleveland next season.
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The Decision

Less than 24 hours from now, the final piece of this summer's free agent jigsaw will be set in place. What's funny is that the rest of the puzzle doesn't even have a shape until the exact shape of this one piece is determined. Instead of this piece fitting into the rest of the completed puzzle, the puzzle will form around the final piece.

The piece, of course, is LeBron James. LeBron's camp announced this week that he will deliver his decision on ESPN's airwaves in an hour long special to begin at 9 ET. That ESPN so easily relinquished its primetime scheduling--even in the slowest month of the sports year--to accommodate the hoopla is staggering. After a mostly meaningless weekend full of speculation and hearsay, the chips began to fall on Monday as the rest of the free agent class decided to get a piece of the pub before "The Decision" on Thursday. After all, the likes of Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, and Chris Bosh and D-Wade do not want to compete for attention with LBJ.

Conversely, LeBron is not about to let any marquee name announce a decision after he does. No one will choose their next team based on LeBron's decision. This is LeBron's ultimate act of control over this summer: to be the finale of the entire show. Nobody is going to force his hand or cause him to settle for anything less than his first choice. He's been catered to by practically every team in the Eastern Conference and patronized by all the big stars. Although LeBron will make his decision heavily on where he wants to be, there's no doubt that he's carefully weighing the moves that have come before him this week. Though we'll never hear his camp say it, we know that he has been dependent on the movement of Amare, Wade, Bosh, and Johnson from the word "go."

So where do we stand less than a day out from the conclusion of this fascinating week? Aside from Wade and Dirk, all the big fish have found new ponds to swim in. The biggest splash was made by Bosh, who unexpectedly decided to join Wade in Miami after we learned that Toronto would agree to send him to the Cavs (teaming him with LeBron) in a sign-and-trade. For whatever reason, Bosh never liked this option despite knowing that he could play with LeBron and get a max contract from a sign-and-trade that he couldn't get by signing as free agent elsewhere. Wade's return to Miami is unsurprising in spite of some serious flirting with Chicago and the Knicks.

Stoudemire and Joe Johnson don't care about winning; they just wanted to earn max contracts so they can be mentioned with the few max players in the league. For their decisions, they will get cap-straddled teams with very little potential of getting better. But really, any team that has Johnson or Stoudemire as their #1 is going nowhere anyways. It doesn't matter who you surround them with. Congrats to the Knicks and Hawks on their big free agent catches!

Boozer quietly and smartly chose the Bulls, who are good enough to win the East as they stand WITHOUT LeBron. If LeBron puts on a Bulls' hat tomorrow night....game over. Everyone else might as well mail in the next half decade, because the Bulls will win the East for several years in a row. The Bulls might not be done, either. As they stand, Ray Allen could take their mid-level exception (about $5.5 million) and fit right into the starting lineup. If they trade Luol Deng's $9 million contract, they could trot out Derrick Rose, Allen, Joe Alexander/James Johnson, Boozer, and Jo Noah. Phew. If they rope LeBron as well, he might overtake Alexander/Johnson to start at small forward. So look out for the Bulls in '10-'11 regardless of "The Decision."

Now that LeBron has seen Bosh and Wade join up, the idea of a trio in South Beach has to be enticing. There are a guaranteed several championships on that team if he goes there. So why isn't it a slam dunk that he's going to Miami, or even a probability? Because LeBron will not ride another star's coattails, much less come remotely close to the perception that he is. Are we sure that LeBron's greatness isn't more important to him than being the best by measure of championships? Are we sure that LeBron wouldn't rather stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago where he would be the unquestioned alpha dog? Are we sure that he doesn't want to go to the worst team in the NBA (New Jersey), hang with his guy Jay-Z, hit the club with Mikhail Prokhorov, play in a new arena, and resurrect a dead franchise on his own? Are we sure he doesn't want to switch leagues, fix the Clippers, and place himself close to Kobe Bryant, if only in proximity? I'm not sure any of these things isn't true.

We'll have answers to all these questions in less than 24 hours without LeBron so much as addressing them. When he makes his choice, we'll know everything.
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A Summer Unlike Any Other



Above, we see a neutral image of LeBron James. We see this because, in less than 4 hours, he no longer has a contract. Because he doesn't have a contract, he doesn't have a team. LeBron James is a free agent.

So what, you ask? Oh nothing, just that the most coveted free agent class in the history of the NBA, led by the most coveted free agent in the history of pro sports, is about to commence.

This will get interesting.

Ever since LeBron signed a contract that was due to expire in the summer of 2010, the entire NBA--executives, GMs, and players--has jockeyed to somehow join forces with him on his next team. As a result of Free Agent LeBron, there has been a 2-year lead up of franchises trying to situate themselves to be in the best position possible to hook King James. During this time, the league has been flooded with unbalanced trades aimed at shedding salary, the assumption of bloated, but expiring, contracts, and the aversion of any long term commitments. Truly, the league and its fans have never seen a phenomenon like this. And it's all about LeBron.

LeBron, however, is not the only catch to be made once the calendar flips tonight. The list of superstar free agents is staggering: Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Rudy Gay, David Lee, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, and even more. I'm not counting or anything, but that list constitutes roughly half of the league's superstars. All free agents--in the same offseason. EVERYONE wants the chance to play with LeBron, or at least pick up the pieces of some devastated suitor in his wake.

Every free agent, except Chris Bosh, has been surprisingly mum on which teams they want to play for, to the point that the media, fans, and bloggers are subject to nothing more than guesswork. The guesswork is fun, but its still guesswork, and has no credible support. The time for guesswork is over. Once the free agent signing period opens, a select few people will gain the knowledge that the world needs to have, then give it to us on TV, the radio, and the Internet. Over the next few weeks, all of the unknowns will become known, and we presumably look upon a transformed landscape in the NBA.

With that, I'm going to offer my incompetent predictions as to where these guys are going.


LeBron James


Prognosticators have been prognosticating about where LeBron will land for over a year. First, the Knicks were almost a certainty. Then the Knicks faded and a possible alliance with Nets minority owner Jay-Z was expected. Then people thought LeBron's unusual sense of loyalty would keep him with his hometown Cavs. Finally, everyone has Chicago as the front-runner to sign him if he leaves Cleveland. I don't claim to know better than anybody else where he's going. However, a tiny, innocuous piece of news a few months ago might have strong implications that he will not stay in Cleveland. The news? LeBron filed an official request with the NBA to change his jersey number from 23 to 6, which is only necessary if a player is changing teams. In other words, LeBron doesn't need to go through the NBA to change his number if he's staying with his team.

This is a flashing neon sign that tells me LeBron is gone from the only team he has ever played for. Either that, or he's just trying to keep us on our toes. I have no idea, but I don't think he's staying in Cleveland.

Prediction: Flip a coin between Chicago and.....Chicago



Dwyane Wade

The Flash has not articulated anything about his plans, but most indicators point to him staying in Miami and recruiting Amare or Bosh very hard. Wade seems tied to the Heat and team President Pat Riley, and seems very unlikely to jump ship to join another star's team. He wants someone else to join his team, and the prospects of that look pretty good. Pay no attention to the possibility of a LeBron-Bosh-Wade trio in Miami that was floated earlier this week. It's most likely to me that Amare will flee the Suns to team up with Wade on South Beach.

Prediction: stays in Miami



Chris Bosh

Months ago, before Bosh started telling everyone that he wants to jump on Bron and Wade's coattails, there was strong rumor of a sign and trade that would send him to the Lakers in exchange for Andrew Bynum. This still seems like a strong possibility, as reported by Sekou Smith. The idea of a sign and trade with Bosh makes him a viable option to many more teams than if he were simply a free agent. Aside from the Laker rumor, Bosh has essentially intimated that he will wait to see where LeBron signs, then make his decision based on that information.

Whether this means that he will sign with that team or somewhere else is anyone's guess. My intuition is that he will follow LeBron, unless LeBron stays with Cleveland. All I know is that Bosh is even more of a lock to change teams than LeBron is. Bosh should sign up with LeBron or Wade if he doesn't get traded to the Lakers, because he hasn't shown that he can win as an alpha dog. I suspect he will go with LeBron.

Prediction: 60% chance to Chicago, 40% chance to Los Angeles



Amare Stoudemire

My favorite player is only being talked about in the context of two teams: the Suns and the Heat. He's certainly burned a lot of bridges in Phoenix with fans, with recently departed GM Steve Kerr, and with owner Robert Sarver. Whether the team wants him back remains to be seen, in spite of reports that the two sides are working on a new contract. I have thought from the beginning that if Amare were to opt out of his contract that teaming up with D-Wade in Miami would be a great duo to build around. With Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers as the only two players under contract for the Heat, they better hope they can retain Wade and rope another big name in free agency, or else Pat Riley is going to drive himself crazy filling out a roster with nobodies.

Prediction: Miami



Joe Johnson

JJ might be the biggest wild card. With the other big names, there seems to be a favorite or two that will likely win out. With Johnson, I can foresee him signing with any of 5 teams equally: Miami, the Knicks, the Nets, the Clippers, and the Mavs. Those with access seem pretty certain that he won't return to Atlanta, even if they offer him max money. Honestly, I think he would be smart to take a little less money if it means that he can team up with the likely combos of LeBron-Bosh or Wade-Stoudemire. Adding Johnson to either of those pairs would form you a stellar core. Reports have the Knicks as the favorite to land Johnson as they're already defaulting to Plan B in doubt of signing LeBron. And why not? He could score at his pleasure in that system, and he's played for Mike D'Antoni before.

Prediction: New York Knicks


Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk is 99.8% sure to be returning to the Mavs. So why did he opt out of the last year of his contract? With the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement next summer, many are anticipating that the players union will have to concede lower max contract salaries (and salaries in general) in order to avoid a lockout. Dirk opted out (1) to place himself in the company of the league's best players to at least give himself the chance to play with one or two of them and (2) to get paid while he can. Next summer he will likely be eligible to earn much less than he can now. Savvy move by Dirk, but he's not going anywhere. He and Mark Cuban like each other too much. They're the anti Stoudemire-Sarver.
See? These guys have too good a thing going to separate. In the .2% chance that Dirk leaves, Phoenix will be where he lands. The only person he likes more than Cuban is Steve Nash. He can play with Nash, but not Cuban.

Going nowhere - Dallas


Carlos Boozer

We all thought Boozer was going to get traded in 08-09 because of his early termination option last summer. He was the biggest fish on the trade market all season long, and nothing materialized. Summer came and we thought he was going to terminate his contract, but he didn't. He stuck with Utah, who seemingly wanted to get rid of him quickly to make room for Paul Millsap. Again this season we thought Boozer would be traded, but it never happened. So what am I getting at exactly? That every time we thought Booz was going to bolt or be traded, he stuck with the Jazz, and the Jazz stuck with him. This is one of the most stable organizations and best situations of any in pro sports, so why would he leave? The Jazz are fringe contenders every year, and Boozer is a big reason for that. We've seen him stay twice. What makes this time any different?

Prediction: Jazz


Paul Pierce and Ray Allen

Pierce just opted out of his contract to join the fun this week, but he's not going anywhere, partly because no one else would dare commit to him for more than 3 years, and because the Celtics will never let him get away. He's a Celtic for life.

Allen has lots of options because he could take the mid-level exception of about $6 million a year. The shelf life of a shooter like Allen is long, which makes his age a mitigated concern. He could hop on the wagon with any of the potential free agent combos to make a nasty core, but I think he's tied to this Boston team. With Doc Rivers now committed to coach next season, they seem determined to make one more run at a title before its all over. Besides if Ray leaves, KG might stalk him all summer with a machete in hand.

Prediction: Celtics



Rudy Gay

Executives in the league don't seem to like Rudy Gay all that much. Which means that Donald Sterling probably loves him! Rudy Gay and the Clippers, a perfect match! Gay isn't an acceptable consolation for whiffing on LeBron, which Sterling will inevitably do, but doesn't this have textbook Donald Sterling all over it?

Prediction: Clippers



David Lee


Lee seems like the kind of player that wouldn't latch on with a big name on another team. He seems like the guy who would replace the big name on his former team. I don't know what it is, but I just get that feeling from him. I think he could take less money to stay with the Knicks if they somehow sign Bosh and Johnson, otherwise he'll leave. Look for him to jump to Phoenix or Utah if their power forwards sign elsewhere.

Prediction: Knicks

We're about to go on a wild ride that could shift the NBA power centers. What happens starting at midnight will go down as perhaps the biggest event in NBA history.















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The Dependables

Derek Fisher is about the most anyone can count on in these Finals


Writing after 3 NBA Finals games, I refuse--vehemently refuse--to dignify the officiating by making this post about how bad the reffing situation is in the NBA.

In a series full of up-and-down rollercoaster inter-game performances, I instead want to highlight a couple of the very few consistencies that have impacted all three games. There are a lot of obvious players you can look to that might fit the bill, so let's systematically eliminate some of the more popular choices.

Undependable: Kobe Bryant

I'm shooting to kill. Cutting the head of the snake. (Insert cliche to the same effect here). After scalding the net in the Phoenix series, Kobe is shooting just 39% from the field on nearly 24 shots per game through the series first 3 games. Along with his steep decline in scoring efficiency is a rise in turnovers, over 3 per game in the Finals. His other per game stats have not noticeably slipped; he's just taking a lot more shots to get to his 26.6 a game. Further, his 5 fouls in Game 2 dictated that he change his attack dramatically, and can be partially credited with the Laker choke at home. In Game 3, Kobe nearly shot the Lakers out of another win, hoisting at least ten ill-conceived shots out of 29 total and completely stifling any offensive life in his teammates. Also, let's not overlook Kobe's defensive lapses while guarding Rajon Rondo for some crucial stretches in the Celtics' Game 2 steal. No excuse for allowing that triple-double while collecting 5 (phantom) fouls.

Undependable: Kevin Garnett

By virtue of his no-show in Game 2 and par Game 1. Let's face it, if KG is locked in like he was in Game 3 (25 points, 11-16 FG), the Celtics are infinitely tougher to beat than when he's not. Even more, having to focus on stopping Garnett in turn helps Garnett stop Gasol and Bynum from getting going offensively.

Undependable: Lamar Odom

Everyone knows Lamar Odom is inconsistent and undependable. I couldn't resist tossing him into this list anyway.

Undependable: Ray Allen

The award for Biggest Rollercoaster Finals Performance Through Three Games goes to Jesus Shuttlesworth. After going for 32 points in Game 2 en route to breaking the Finals record for converted three-pointers with eight, Allen threw up a near-record for shooting futility. Just two nights after implanting the fear of God into the Staples Center, Ray could be seen shooting an unfathomable 0-13 FG and 0-8 3PT on his home floor in a tie series. He essentially undid any good from Game 2 with his off night in Game 3. Ray is one of my favorite guys in the NBA and a real stand up, class act. In spite of my elation as a Laker fan, I was truly pained to watch him struggle like that as one of the best humans and shooters to ever bless the NBA.

Undependable: Paul Pierce

PP hasn't been himself all series long--and that's coming from a guy who mortally detests him since The Fakeout (the foreign dialog adds about 35% hilarity to the comic value of the clip). He had a good Game 1, but he hasn't shot the ball well since then, and has struggled mightily to get his high post game going.
Why the pained face Paul? Did you miss a jumper or just get carried off the court?
Two years ago, that was where the Celtics went when they needed a basket or a run. This time, it seems like Ron Artest is really getting Pierce out of his game, which really, really hurts Boston.

When those four guys aren't the constants in a playoff series, you know you're watching something peculiar. If four of the 5 best players in the series are disqualified from being dependable, then who the heck is qualified?






Dependable: Rajon Rondo

He's officially grabbed the torch as the best player on the Celtics. Two years removed from the enigmatic, inexperienced version of himself, Rondo is now the most dominant player on the court every night. No question that he's been the best player in the series through Game 3. His triple-double in Game 2 is the only thing that has preserved any drama in this series, not to mention Boston's chance of winning. With even 90% of what he did in Game 2, the Celtics probably lose that game and are down 3-0. They need every bit of brilliance that Rondo provides. Is it amazing that this guy still doesn't have a nickname after 2 straight incredible seasons? Were it not for his complete defensive absence down the stretch in Game 3, the Celtics could possibly have the 2-1 lead. More on that defensive lapse in a minute.

Dependable: Abhorrent Reffing

I promised at the start that I wouldn't dignify this. Hold.....strong.....stay..... ............................. ............................. ............................. .....................strong

Dependable: Ron Artest

That is, you can always depend on Ron to be historically bad (39% for the playoffs) from the perimeter. He has shot over 50% from the field in only 6 games this postseason, and if you remove the totals from those games, he's shooting a robust 31%. If you can depend on Ron to be an offensive life-sucker, you can count on him to be just as good on defense. If the Lakers can win the title, the confusion/frustration/physica lity against Paul Pierce is worth all the trouble he creates on offense.

Dependable: Lamar Odom

You can always depend on Lamar Odom to be the most inconsistent player over 7 games in any series. He'll score 8 points in 36 minutes with ten fouls over two games, then come back and give you 12 huge points on 5-5 shooting with a deceivingly-important-for-mom entum banked three. I continue to assert that when Lamar Odom has it going off the bench, the Lakers are darn near unbeatable.

Dependable of Dependables: Derek Fisher

I have been one of the blogosphere's most passionate advocates for Fisher to be benched in favor of younger, more athletically gifted guards Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar. During the regular year and into the playoffs, the Lakers are always mismatched at point guard. It's one of the defining characteristics of the team: weak point guard play. I have complained that Fisher misses too many open shots and cannot stay in front of bigger or quicker scoring guards like Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Russ Westbrook, and Chris Paul. When Phil Jackson opts for Farmar or Brown in end-of-game situations, I always feel more confident.

Apparently, my memory is short and fickle regarding Playoff Fish.

After Game 3, what can we say about Fish? The box score is unimpressive: 16 points on 6-12 FG, 1 AST, 3 REB, 5 fouls, 0 STL. The truth is, the impact of Fisher's clutch cannot be quantified by any box score line. With his team's offense sputtering and going into Stand-And-Watch-Kobe-Hoist-Te legraphed-Jumpers mode, Fisher did what he's built a reputation for in recent years: take and sink a few gigantic shots. After checking in at the 9:45 mark of the fourth quarter and his team's lead down to just one, Fisher went 5-7 for 11 of his 16 points, including two floaters in traffic and the game-clinching layup plus foul inside one minute to play. Kobe's numbers in that 4th quarter? 1-6 for 4 points. Look again, the Lakers survived a close NBA Finals game on the road against their most hated rival when Kobe scored one basket in his favorite time to close out games. It was as if Fisher was following Kobe around and saying after his bad misses, "Don't worry man, I'll pick you up. I got this." The Lakers 18-point lead was whittled down to one, but Boston never grabbed the lead after Fisher re-entered the game.

No more will I be so mercurial in my attitude toward Fisher. All the regular season ineptitude and ugliness is unequivocally worth his clutch dependability in the playoffs. His list of game-changing/game-clinching playoff shots is too long to list, most notably, .4. Frankily, I can't even remember a lot of them. Like Fish, these shots seem to blend into the background of Laker success, their impact never fully appreciated for how vital they are. I will say this for certain: the Lakers are nowhere without several big jumpers from Fisher in each of the four rounds in 2010's playoffs. His postgame interview betrays a man who seems to constantly keep life and basketball in perspective, which is part of what makes him arguably the best human being in the NBA.

(For those of you eager for me to gripe about the refs, I'm still processing the futility and incompetence we've seen thus far. I'll try and touch on it later or sometime after the Finals end)

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Here We Go Again



The 2010 NBA Finals are finally upon us. After 6 weeks of drama and surprises, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics are the two left standing. The improbable matchup is a win situation for everyone involved: the NBA, ESPN/ABC, the fans, and the teams themselves. The unparalleled history between the NBA's two premiere franchises runs deep. The Celtics are the most successful team in NBA history, with 17 championships. The Lakers are right behind them in title count, with 15. Including 2010, the Lakers have played in a staggering 31 of 64 NBA Finals. The Celtics won 11 of 13 championships from the late 1950s-mid 1960s, a dynasty unmatched in any sport. Bad blood still flows from a chippy and intense 2008 series, which went to the Celtics in 6 games.


How we got here

Boston grabbed the 4 seed in the East and drew D-Wade's Miami Heat in the first round. Through the filter of my expectations, the Celtics hurdled the Heat a little better than I anticipated, winning in 5 games. Garnett's knee problems started to be forgotten as he performed well.

In the East Semis, we got a ridiculous matchup of Celtics-Cavaliers by virtue of Boston's seemingly low seed. Nothing in this matchup signaled to me that Boston had a chance to win four of seven over LeBron. At the time, the Cavs looked like the best team in the league and had the look that a team gets when it's destined for the Finals. Well, the Celtics dismantled and out-hustled the Cavs en-route to a shocking 6-game upset. As the final ticks came off the clock in Game 6, it looked like the Celtics had completely demoralized the Cavs and forced them into submission. Boston had the ball up by 2-3 possessions with the game still in reach, and the Cavs didn't know what to do. They could have fouled, but they didn't, but they looked uncomfortable standing on the court while the Celtics ran out the clock on their season. The Celtics looked like the 2008 team: superior cohesion, unmatched intensity, an overpowering will, and a defense effort so strong that it is usually offensive to NBA players. Kevin Garnett also looked like his 2008 clone as he obliterated Antawn Jamison on both ends of the court.

The Conference Finals brought Boston to Orlando. The Magic had yet to lose a postseason game heading into the Boston series and was everyone's revised favorite to rematch the Lakers in the Finals. There was so much more to like about the Magic than the Celtics, but Boston was determined. They stole home court advantage by taking both games in Orlando and the first in Boston for a 3-0 lead. The only time Orlando had success was when Boston got a little bored and lost intensity in Games 4 and 5.
Interesting correlation: Rajon Rondo's transcendent play noticeably dipped in these two games. Not surprised that Boston lost. The buck stopped in Game 6 when Boston did what championship teams do and said to Orlando, "You're not going any farther. We're stopping you here no matter what it takes. You will not beat us again." In blowout fashion, the Celtics closed the series on their home floor in what was a terribly boring and anticlimactic game. This is a characteristic of title teams, they suck all the drama out of games that the other team must win. They step on the opponent's throat and give them no chance to win.


The LA Lakers have been a rollercoaster ride throughout the playoffs. Everyone just expects the Lakers to beat everybody else in short order. So when they traveled to Oklahoma City for Games 3 and 4 in the first round, the world watched in horror (or delight) as Oklahoma City embarrassed LA and really exposed the weaknesses of the Defending Champs. The Lakers, for the first time since the Pau Gasol trade in 2008, looked old. Not only that, but good/raw/high ceiling players like Thunder PG Russell Westbrook looked like All-Stars against the Laker defense. Derek Fisher couldn't defend Carrie Fisher. Ron Artest made 18% of his three-pointers. Again, as championship teams do, the Lakers regrouped, blew OKC out at home in Game 5, then escaped the Thunder on Pau Gasol's last-second putback in Game 6. Counter-intuitively, the Thunder would be arguably pose the biggest threat to LA's repeat bid, and they met in the first round.

There isn't much novel to say about the Lakers-Jazz Western Semifinal series, except that the Lakers looked dominant. Utah is a good, good team. Nobody in the NBA is capable of sweeping the Jazz except for the Lakers, for whatever reason. The Lakers swept, embodied a championship urgency and drive--rare for them--and marched into a Pacific Division showdown with the Nash's Suns.

The Lakers-Suns series was wildly entertaining and dramatic. Off the top, it is relevant to note how horribly egregious the officiating was in this series. The Lakers benefited when on their home court, but not remotely as much as Phoenix did on theirs. It was as if Commissioner Stern called from NBA headquarters and told the refs, "We need this series to go long. This series is going at least 6 games, and you're going to make it happen." What? You think this doesn't happen in the NBA? I'm telling you, its not nearly as impossible as you think it is. LA won both games at home, shooting a blistering near-60% from the field and averaging about 125 points. Things changed when the series shifted to the U.S. Airways Center as Amare Stoudemire came alive, the Suns killed the Lakers in free throw margin, and a creative zone by Suns coach Alvin Gentry stunned the Lakers into settling for too many jump shots. The Suns held serve at home, sending the series back to LA for Game 5. The Lakers came out strong in Game 5, storming to an 18 point lead in the first half. This game was a mirror image of the OKC Game 5, we'll dub it The Regroup Game. The Suns showed 8 different kinds of moxie and poise, chipping away at the lead down the stretch until a wild possession of offensive rebounds and a Jason Richardson bank three tied the game at 101 with 5 seconds remaining. Kobe got the ball, threw up an airball, and the most unlikely of heroes, Ron Artest-Rodman, snatched it out of the air, turned from under the basket, and banked home a 3-footer just shy of the buzzer for the win. Euphoria ensued, the Lakers celebrated awkwardly around Artest, fans couldn't believe the turn of events. Game 6 was again roundly controlled by the Lakers and a pathologically locked-in Kobe Bryant (33.7 pts, 7.2 reb, 8.3 ast, 51.2% FG for the series), and the Suns finally succumbed in a hard fought match with their rival.


Where we are now

A grudge match between the NBA's most storied franchises. The Celtics are on a roll, looking more active and healthy than any time in the last 18 months. The Lakers are a bit older and more tested. They have the championship swagger and the burden of defending their title. The question of their toughness that surfaced in the 2008 Finals remains unsolved. The Celtics were better in 2008 and, objectively, the Lakers look slightly better this time around.

The Celtics will bring their patented tough defense and must slow down the hot-shooting Bryant. Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum must have a large impact on both ends of the floor to contain Kevin Garnett, control the glass, and ease Kobe's offensive load. The Lakers might try to speed the pace in order to get into a scoring match and avoid a game governed by defense, the Celtics' strength. Boston will look to bump and bang the Lakers in an attempt to make them timid and hesitant, which worked beautifully in 2008.

Two major differences from 2008, one on each side. Paul Pierce was a matchup nightmare for the Lakers in the last series. The Lakers ' Bryant, Trevor Ariza, and Lamar Odom all were misfits against the plodding but agile Pierce. This time around, LA has a potential antidote in Artest, who can match the size, strength, and physicality of Pierce in his favorite spot at the elbow. The result of this matchup has significant bearing on the outcome of the series at large.

The other major change is Rajon Rondo's place in the Celtic hierarchy. Two years ago, he was in his second season and first as a starter in a lineup with 3 future Hall of Famers. He navigated his way through the playoffs, getting better every series and being careful to appease the superstars at every point. He wasn't perfect, but he was good enough for Boston to win the title, and definitely contributed positively. Now in his fourth season, Rondo has solidified himself as a top 5, maybe top 3, point guard in the NBA. His versatility and physical gifts are unique, even in a world with Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Derrick Rose. He is a nightly threat for a triple-double, and has drastically improved his offensive arsenal to the point that you have to pay attention to him on the perimeter. But if you do that, he'll burst by you to the basket, where he finishes and dishes highlight reel passes equally well. No longer is he someone whose success the Lakers are surprised by; Rondo's impact is now at the forefront of Phil Jackson's game plan.

Kevin Garnett has hooked up to the rejuvenation machine in this postseason. His game isn't one that typically declines over time because of its fade away, jump shooting, finesse nature. In other words, Kevin Garnett can jump and shoot from the power forward position at 33 as well as he did at 27. His resurgence is largely responsible for Boston's upset run to the Finals over two "better" teams. This won't happen for the sake of continuity, but if I'm Phil Jackson, I'm thinking long and hard about starting Lamar Odom in this series and putting him on Garnett to start, with Bynum coming in to relieve him. Gasol, as hard a time as he's had in shedding the "soft" label, should be fine on Kendrick Perkins because of his small offensive role. Whoever he's guarding, Gasol has to be a monster on the defensive glass in this series, a place where the Lakers got killed 2 years ago.

Of utmost importance to the Celtics is how to stop Kobe. Gone is James Posey, their best attempt at a Kobe stopper from 2008. Posey was largely effective in harassing Kobe and generally throwing him out of his rhythm, and Paul Pierce was serviceable in relief of Posey as well. The Celtics best hope is to start Pierce on Kobe, then throw Tony Allen at him off the bench. Kobe has completed his transition into a full-fledged killer in the post, an evolution that was incomplete in 2008. He's also proven to be just as deadly from the perimeter in this postseason, and has looked ever so spry since getting his knee drained a few weeks ago. This is the number one priority for Doc Rivers and defensive guru Tom Thibodeau: stopping Kobe. Given the defenders he's got, I don't think Rivers can do it. Not this time.

Other things to watch for: Bynum and his mangled knee, Ray Allen's incredible sharpshooting, Shannon Brown's effectiveness off the bench, Rasheed Wallace's impact, and Glen Davis' health and productivity off the Boston bench. Bench play will be a huge factor while the starters rest. With every star player in this series over 32 years old, the bench and other role players (Odom, Artest, Brown, Fisher for the Lakers and Wallace, Robinson, Tony Allen, Davis, and Perkins for the Celtics) have huge responsibility and impact when they are on the floor.

Keys to Success

Boston
--Win Game 1 or 2 on the road
--Muscle up on the Lakers' big men (especially Gasol)
--Pressure the point guards and attack them on offense
--Funnel Kobe into help defense
--Don't let Lamar Odom get going. When Lamar Odom is going well, the Lakers are virtually unbeatable
--Slow the pace and make the Lakers play half court offense
--Give Rondo room to operate on Fisher and Farmar and spread the paint, enabling him to create
--Make Bynum move on defense

Los Angeles
--HOLD HOME COURT at all costs. Phil Jackson's teams are 45-0 when winning Game 1 of a playoff series
--Contain Rondo and Pierce
--Put Kobe on Rondo and Fisher on Ray Allen to start
--Do everything possible to get Lamar Odom going on offense and on the defensive glass
--Control the rebounding margin
--Make the jump shooters (Allen and Garnett) beat you, not the finisher/slashers (Pierce and Rondo)
--Push the pace, don't let Boston set up their half court defense
--Give Kobe room to operate, but don't stand around and watch him

Which ever team does more of these things correctly will win the series, its that simple. The Lakers weren't anticipating home court advantage if they were to advance to the Finals, but Boston's upsets of Cleveland and Orlando have given that advantage to the Lakers. LA will tell you the home court doesn't matter enough to make a difference, but they couldn't be happier about it. The Lakers are 28-3 in their last 31 home playoff games, and haven't lost in 8 home games this postseason. Phil's teams are literally unbeatable when winning Game 1 in the series, so it is imperative that Boston steals Game 1 on Thursday night. I think the Lakers are a better team and are better prepared for everything the Celtics will throw at them than they were in 2008. The Lakers have fared miserably against the Celtics in the Finals, with a 2-9 record in 11 championship series dating back to the 1960s Russell-West/Baylor teams. If this series has taught us anything, though, its that you can throw all the numbers, trends, and stats out the window. Kobe is the mentally strongest and most competitive player in the series and has discovered how to win without Shaq. There is no worry about the Lakers will to win; they are properly motivated to pay the Celtics back and to defend their crown. Boston is playing fantastically cohesive basketball and truly peaking at the perfect time. This series can go either way, but the Laker home court advantage is grounds enough for me to pick with my heart.

Lakers in 7


This series is well matched and these players and coaches know each other very well. The NBA's most decorated and beloved rivalry is ready to tip off its latest installment. Are you?
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Digging His Own Grave



I thought Amare Stoudemire had changed. After ripping him in this space about two months ago, he proceeded to survive the February 18 trade deadline and become pathologically motivated to play excellent basketball. He and Steve Nash led the Suns to the best record in the West after the All-Star break, all the way to the 3 seed in the playoffs. Amare and the Suns carried their tidal wave of momentum into the first round against Portland, where they struggled a little, but won easily. After sweeping their archrival from San Antonio, the Suns became everyone's favorite hot team to beat the Lakers and reach the Finals for the first time since 1991.

Their reward for sweeping the Spurs was 8 days off between series for the Suns. Turns out that might have been more detrimental than beneficial. The Lakers shot almost 60% for the game on their way to waxing Phoenix in Game 1. Simple hot shooting all around is partially responsible for the Laker rout, but let's not take the terrible Phoenix defense off the hook, either.

This is where my criticism of Amare comes in. (As a side note, I feel completely reassured and vindicated for my earlier remarks after watching him in Game 1). While his final 2 months were spectacular, I'm confident that he is still the same guy I've always disliked.

According to a story by Dave McMenamin of ESPN Los Angeles, Amare claimed that Laker forward Lamar Odom's 19 point/19 rebound line in Game 1 was a "lucky game." Amare went on to say that he "focused so much on Gasol and Bynum to where [Odom] snuck in there and got 19 boards." So let me get this straight: he was too focused on Gasol to worry about Odom? Man, I can't imagine how much better than 21 points on 10-13 shooting Gasol might have done if Stoudemire had diverted some attention off him to guard Odom. As for Bynum, he played 19 minutes, contributed minimally, and still outrebounded Stoudemire, who played nearly twice as much.

Amare's final tally: three rebounds in 35 minutes. The guys he guarded: 40 points and 24 rebounds combined. I want to reiterate how incredibly terrible Amare's work ethic is. This is the premier low post athlete in the NBA, and he continually exhibits a complete void of effort and desire to do the necessary things to win. I've said this before, but if he gave 100% every night, he could average 15 rebounds and 30 points. What is with this guy? Why does he settle? Scarier yet, who could possibly stop him if he cared?

As if you couldn't tell, I'm at a loss with Amare. I can't fathom this guy commenting like he did after getting personally shellacked. Somebody forgot to teach him that when you get dominated on the scoreboard, you lose your right to say certain things. My recommendation to Amare is (1) to shut his mouth (2) care (3) mix in a bit of defense and (4) dominate like you should.

Until these things happen, the Lakers will continue to overwhelm the Suns in this series. The Suns are already outmatched, and their only hope is to have Amare and Nash at their absolute best. Anything less will spell a swift end for the Suns.
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Offense Wins Games, Streak Shooting Wins Championships



Through two rounds of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, the Orlando Magic are unbeaten, and mostly unchallenged. Their current demolition of the #3 seeded Atlanta Hawks was among the most lopsided series' in playoff history, surpassed by only one series by average margin of victory.

To say that the Magic are firing on all cylinders might be an understatement at this point. They flew under the radar most of the season, letting LeBron's Cavs, the declining Celtics, and upstart Hawks collect most of the attention in the East. Down the stretch, this team really hit its stride, going 23-5 after the All-Star break, and now 8-0 in the playoffs. Stan Van's squad has won 17 of its last 18, having lost just once (at San Antonio) since March 24.

The question about the reigning Eastern Conference Champs is, How are they so easily brushing off teams who everyone thought were good, like the Hawks? The answer is not new--incredibly strong perimeter shooting. One look at Dwight Howard's playoff scoring shows that Orlando's dominance is not a product of his own dominance of the paint. Superman checks in with just 15 points a game in these playoffs, and that's after factoring in the 21 a game in the Atlanta series. As always, the Magic are making-or-breaking with their shooters, who are all going bonkers, especially from beyond the arc.

Through 8 games, the team is shooting a gaudy 48.8% overall, with a healthy 38.4% from 3 point territory while attempting a high volume of tries (29 a game).
Jameer Nelson's been huge with 20.5 points and 40% three-point shooting in the playoffs
The Magic have taken nearly 40% of their total shots from behind the line, which is far and away the highest among remaining teams. Leading the Hawks 3-0 in the series, Orlando had its best shooting performance yet in Game 4, finishing at 55% for the game after hovering above 60% for most of the first three quarters. The Magic's mind-numbing 16 three-pointers on an equally mind-numbing 37 attempts were a big reason they were able to separate from Atlanta and demoralize them early in the game.

Looking at the box score, one can see that this remarkably accurate shooting allows a team to buck other statistics that are typical harbingers for failure.

Coaches think that they will usually be successful if their team makes more free throws than the opponent attempts. Atlanta made 21 out of 29, Orlando made 10 of 19. Check #1 for Mike Woodson.

Coaches think that they will usually be succesful if their team wins the turnover battle by a significant margin. Atlanta turned the ball over just 7 times, while Orlando turned it over 15. Check #2 for Mike Woodson.

Coaches think that they will usually be succesful if their bench outscores the other team's bench significantly. Atlanta's bench scored 36 points, Orlando's scored 25. Check #3 for Mike Woodson.

As indicative as these stats usually are, there is one from Game 4 that is even more telling: the offensive glass. If you had told Mike Woodson before Game 4 that Orlando's first offensive rebound wouldn't come until 7:47 left in the 4th quarter, he would probably start packing his bag for a quick departure to Orlando after a Game 4 win. Not so fast. Because Orlando was so unconscious from the perimeter, they had very few chances to even make offensive rebounds. If the ball's going in the hoop, you have no need to rebound it. Atlanta did everything that coaches want their teams to do, and they still got throttled. Maybe this is a sign of just how locked in Orlando is that they could induce such helplessness from their opponents.

As a Laker fan, the Orlando Magic do not currently put the fear of God in me. A team that relies so heavily on perimeter shooting--however efficient, deadly, accurate, clutch--is bound to hit the skids, maybe for several games at a time. Warning to Stan Van: you better get Dwight Howard motivated and involved in the paint, or else your team could start shooting you out of highly crucial playoff games in the near future.
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NBA Playoff Thoughts



Nearing the midway point of the postseason after nearly a month, I wanted to drop in with some reactions to the outcomes, thoughts on how teams have looked, and laments on how terrible my picks are yet again.

Currently, the health of LeBron James stands as the question looming over the entire playoffs. There is no bigger single determinant of everyone else's playoff fate than LeBron's injured right elbow. If LeBron isn't 100%, the Cavaliers are going to lose the series to the left-for-dead Celtics in short order. Boston completely throttled Cleveland on its home floor Monday. Cleveland rolled over and did not put up much of a fight until the final few minutes when the game was essentially decided. Now, the reason for the rollover is anyone's guess. LeBron's injury hampering his effectiveness is a popular explanation, but I think it has less to do with the Most Valuable Elbow than it does with the ineptitude of Cleveland head coach Mike Brown.

Brown refused to adjust to his team's sputtering offense instead emphasizing the need to feed Shaquille O'Neal in the post. Possession after possession, even as Cleveland's deficit was growing, the Cavs dished to Shaq in the post. This would have been a great idea...in 2003. Shaq looked awful in Game 2, to the tune of 9 points and 4 rebounds in 19 minutes while sucking the life out of teammate Mo Williams (1-9, 0-4 3PT). As a result, LeBron was limited to 15 shots, and backup J.J. Hickson played only 19 minutes in spite of scoring 13 points. Also, there's no way that Kendrick Perkins' near double-double (10 pts, 9 reb) and Rasheed Wallace's resurrection (17 pts on 7-8 FG) are coincidence. It is no surprise that two guys who have contributed next to nothing for Boston all year long suddenly erupted with Shaq guarding them. Boston seems focused, motivated, and like they have their 2008 mojo back. The murmurs about KG's dead knees has faded, Rondo has taken the mantle as the team leader, and Ray Allen's effectiveness hasn't changed in 10 years. Even Danny Ainge is contributing to the resurgence. The point of this rant is that 2010 Shaq is ineffective, derails any flow his team has on offense, and is a defensive liability, and that Mike Brown is a fool for keeping him in his rotation at Hickson's expense. I expect Brown to realize this around Game 6 in Boston, which might be too late for him to win the series, especially if his star player is not healthy. After that, I envision a news break on the day of Game 1 of the Eastern Finals between the Magic and Celtics annoucing that the Cavs have decided to let Brown go. And it won't be a moment too soon for a coach who has ridden the coattails of LeBron for the last 5 seasons.

The resurgent Celtics aren't the only ones who are looking formidable against Cleveland. Orlando laid in the weeds all season long, but seem to be peaking at the right time. After sweeping Charlotte and then euthanizing Atlanta in Game 1 of the East semis, everyone in the media immediately remembered, "Oh crap, these are the guys who dismantled Cleveland last year and gave the Lakers all they could handle. They're for real." The only differences between this May and last May are that Hedo Turkoglu was replaced by Vince Carter (good move in retrospect), and Jameer Nelson is healthy and firing. This team doesn't even need Dwight Howard to play offense to be successful, as evidenced by his 9 points per game average in the Charlotte series. Many are picking this team to represent the East against the Lakers in the Finals, even with Cleveland alive. If the Cavs lose to Boston, you can take to the bank that Orlando will be playing a rematch against the Lakers in June, this time with homecourt advantage.

Speaking of the Lakers, what is there to say about these guys? They're either the most epically bored NBA powerhouse of all time, or they truly live or die on matchups. In Round 1 against OKC, the Lakers looked old, unathletic, and essentially helpless. That's a lot to say about a team that trots out the likes of Kobe, Odom, Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Artest-Rodman and Shannon Brown every night. It seemed like the Lakers did everything they could just to get by in that series. Now? The Lakers look dominant against Utah, as usual. The claim that Utah matches up poorly against LA is a broken record in the media, but apparently makes all the difference in the world to a Laker team just biding its time. The Jazz have lost 9 straight playoff games at the Staples Center and have had their season ended by the Lakers the last 2 years. I was afraid the Lakers might not make it out of the OKC series (and for good reason), and now I can't imagine how Utah will avoid getting swept by them. D-Will and Boozer are doing all they can, but falling prey to 3 double-doubles (Gasol, Odom, Bynum) in the same game is simply too much for two guys to handle.

On the other side of the West bracket, we find two teams that can't stand each other--yep, its Suns-Spurs. The Suns came into their series against Portland as the hottest team in the West, then stumbled a bit before putting the Blazers away. San Antonio--right on cue after being counted out AGAIN--surgically dismantled the time bomb that was Dallas. What a mess the Mavs were in that series. This Spurs team fascinates me. Its not the usual Duncan then Parker-Ginobili road to success. Turns out Duncan wasn't saving anything for the playoffs, he's just got nothing left in the tank. There has been a clear shift in leadership on the Spurs: Manu Ginobili has officially taken the reins from Duncan. Ginobili's 20.1 point average so far in the postseason is nicely complemented by Duncan's 18.4 and Parker's 17.3. George Hill's 13.6 have been huge as well. We shouldn't kid ourselves; the Spurs could just as easily have been the #2 seed as Dallas was, and really should have been considered favorites in that series. I for one will admit to being sucked in by the playoffs-soft Mavs, which came to light in my predictions post. You should go read it. Really, go capture the evidence before I delete the post from the blog. However, I added an interesting qualifier in that prediction: the Spurs make everyone who leaves them for dead look foolish by reinventing themselves under the mastery of Gregg Popovich. I said that the Spurs crush it every time this happens, and then I proceeded to bury them for 2010 (You can look that up, too).

All this praise of the Spurs noted, I'm taking the Suns to reach the West Finals. Still competitive or not, the Spurs are old and relatively unathletic, and those are qualities that the Suns feast on. If matchups is the theme of this post, then the Suns match up great against the Spurs. Duncan, the best defensive power forward of all time, couldn't guard Amar'e Stoudemire in 2006, and can't do it now. Tony Parker has a worse allergy to defense than does Steve Nash, and Nash is way more of a threat. Everyone left the Suns for dead earlier this season when Amar'e was playing lazily. It turns out they have something to prove, too.

Stay tuned for more failed picks and updates about the playoffs as the action unfolds.
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NBA Running Diary

I’ve decided that a Lakers-Thunder Game 4 viewing party would be an apt time for a running diary, beginning with the second half of the Hawks-Bucks Game 3. We pick up that game with Milwaukee leading 52-40. Entries are in Pacific Time.


5:30 PM John Salmons drills a 15-footer while falling down. What an amazing pick-me-up his acquisition from the Bulls ended up being.

5:32 Joe Johnson has 19 of Atlanta’s 43 points after knocking down a three from the corner. He’s going to look great in a Chicago, Miami, or New York uniform next season.

5:35 Atlanta is making Luc Mbah a Moute, Ersan Ilyasova, and Carlos Delfino look like 5-time All-Stars.

5:37 Jon Barry just noted that Jamal Crawford took over the lead for 4-point plays from Reggie Miller, to which I ask: “How many more years will it take Jamal Crawford to get inducted into the Hall of Fame than Reggie Miller?”

5:38 (cut-away to James Harden walking into the arena) When did it become cool for NBA players to look like homeless people? Whenever that point came, they sure have it perfected now.

5:42 If I hadn’t looked up that Carlos Delfino’s contract lasts 2 more years, I’d say that ESPN and the NBA are trying to boost his trade value by the way they’re featuring him.

5:44 Anytime Kurt Thomas is one of your rotation guys, you should know that you’re not going very far.

Al Horford has nailed 3 straight 17-foot jump shots and I’m already slotting him for next year’s fantasy draft.

5:47 I love these cutaway previews. Ron Artest is channeling his inner Worm. I’d love to get him to interpret what the designs in his hair mean.
Would anybody be surprised to see Ron Artest end up like this?


5:51 Jerry Stackhouse climbs out of the ground, brushes himself off, and hits a wide open three.

5:53 Not sure I’ve ever seen so many terrible three-point shooters shoot so many three pointers.

5:59 The loudspeaker blaring a weird version of “Seven Nation Army,” followed by the Milwaukee crowd echoing it afterward, sounds awesome.

6:00 Joe Johnson’s shoulders have got to be tired.

6:03 Whenever Luc Mbah a Moute poses a huge matchup problem against you, you’re not having a good night.

6:09 ESPN/ABC is lucky they get to televise the Lakers tonight, otherwise they would have lost their entire audience for the rest of the night. This game is terrible.

6:12 Clang!

6:13 Jon Barry just made fun of Brandon Jennings’ dancing: “Put in a little more time there young fella.” Jon Barry, I’d love to see you dance.

6:14-6:16 Three of the guys just got here.

Drew: “Ah! Those are good cookies.”

Travis: “They’re Laker-themed.”

This is going to be a good night.

6:17 We just had a 45-second argument about whether Bryon Russell’s name is in fact “Bryon” or if its “Byron.”

6:21 Atlanta may have showed up to the Bradley Center and said, “Let’s take it easy tonight. We’ve got a 2-0 lead, we’ve got one to burn. Let’s mail this one in.”

6:28 Brandon Jennings is doing an air lasso on the bench with his mouthpiece halfway out of his mouth. What else do NBA players have to do in their free time?

6:31 Milwaukee 107, Atlanta 89, final.

6:32 Sideline reporter Holly Rowe is wearing Bucks-colored eye shadow and earrings. Are the NBA and ESPN in cahoots? I smell conspiracy!

6:37 Do you think the guy in the Axe commercial really has a robot following him around just waiting to make him look more attractive? If so, I want to use Axe.

6:39 They just showed the Western Conference bracket and I realized how crappy my playoff picks currently are.

6:39 Doris Burke is doing the color commentary for the Lakers game. I have two thoughts about this: first, very poor broadcast planning by ESPN. Second, women should never call professional basketball games because they inevitably utter phrases like “the Black Mamba.” Doris Burke should not say “the Black Mamba.”

6:43 Has anyone noticed that Pau Gasol has sneakily become a very average free throw shooter? He just missed two free throws. There, you noticed.

6:44 Crowd whiteouts are scary.
Penn State fans are Best at the Whiteout


6:45 The fantasy baseball chatter has started while the Lakers are on. There is no place I’d rather be right now.

6:46 Don’t you love it when the network shows a replay that causes you to miss a big play? ESPN has gotten complacent; they’re mailing in this broadcast worse than Atlanta mailed in Game 3.

6:47 Ron Artest is 6 foot 7 and cannot dunk. I’m 6 foot 1 and I’d like to think I could flush it if I had another 2-3 inches.

6:51 Derek Fisher just made his first good play guarding Russell Westbrook in this series. Its Game 4.

6:52 My cousin Dave: “Doris Burke really is Gawd awful.” I’m not going to say that everyone feels like this…but everyone feels like this.

6:56 Dave: “I’d be down to watch this game on mute. I’d much rather listen to our commentary than these two hack jobs.”

(Everyone nods in agreement)

6:58 Russell Westbrook just got a preferential call with Kobe guarding him. Are the refs confusing Westbrook with Kevin Durant?

6:59 It is unfathomable that Ron Artest cannot dunk.

7:01 Good work by Taco Bell to introduce the American public to another Spanish word that we’d otherwise never learn: tortada.

7:03 Important moment: we have our first D.J. Mbenga sighting.

7:05 Ron Artest just took his 34,503,044,330th bad shot of the 09-10 season.

7:07 Doris Burke: “That guy has such a knack…”

Dave: “Shut up, Doris.”

7:10 End of 1st quarter: OKC 29, LA, 17. The Lakers mailed in that first quarter more than ESPN is mailing in this broadcast, which was more Atlanta mailed in Game 3. Who knew we could top the Hawks’ crap job so soon?

7:13 Thoughts on the first quarter interview:
Ric Bucher’s hair looks immaculate, and Phil Jackson just broke his own record for Most Sexual Innuendos in A Single Quarter Interview with 5.

7:20 Myself and my buddies are recently not young, if that makes sense. You know you reach this point as a male when you get jacked up to play in softball leagues. When did we get old?

7:25 The Lakers look hung over.

7:26 Ron Artest’s hurt wrist might be the best thing to happen to the Lakers tonight.

7:27 The Lakers are seeing who can miss the most wide open threes off a kick out while the Thunder are seeing how few seconds of the shot clock they can use before they score.

7:35 Doris Burke: “Russell Westbrook is ridiculous.”

Dave: “Shut up Doris, you’re ridiculous”

7:37 Derek Fisher is playing minutes like he’s a 25 year old, and he’s getting torched by Westbrook like he’s 80.

7:44 Kobe doesn’t look right. Did you see those free throw attempts?

7:46 Dan Shulman just called that pseudo-travel an “inadvertent whistle” by the officials. That whistle was about as inadvertent as God’s plan for the redemption of humanity. They just screwed up the call and then fixed it, which makes one corrected call for the first half.

7:49 Apparently, the rules and the boundaries of the court don’t apply to the Thunder. Either that or the refs left the court 2 minutes before the quarter ended.

7:51 Halftime Thunder fast, Lakers comatose.

7:58 I wonder if Avery Johnson got made fun of a lot as a kid.

8:12 Second half starts with a blind foul call on a three pointer. Fisher comes back and drills another three on the other end. Fisher’s carrying the Lakers, and that’s a terrible sign.

8:15 You could foul Kevin Durant while he’s sitting on the bench and the refs would give him two free throws.

8:17 (Jeff Green hits a three)

Trevor: “Dagger”

Travis: “It’s the 3rd quarter”

8:18 Dave just called Kobe “Sir-Dish-A lot.” I can’t make this stuff up.

8:20 Only in the NBA will you see Russell Westbrook chest bump Nenad Krstic.

8:22 Brendan Fraser is starring in “Furry Vengeance” and I’m not convinced he couldn’t defend Westbrook better than Derek Fisher is right now.

8:27 Doris Burke just said made her first intelligent comment of the night, and she stumbled through it pretty bad.

8:28 Dave and the guys have resorted to making fun of individual members in the Oklahoma City crowd. As Laker fans, that’s all we have left.

8:39 We’ve ceased paying attention to the game and have begun talking about the Lap Band and Shake Weight.

8:41 Remember in Space Jam when all the NBA superstars suddenly and inexplicably had their basketball skills stolen by the Monstars?

I think something like this happened to the Lakers tonight. I’m ready for a Jack and Coke.

8:48 Let’s see if the Lakers can close the gap with Jordan Farmar, Luke Walton, and Shannon Brown on the floor.

8:54 The NBA makes most of its players look like they actually care about other people with the “Where Caring Happens” campaign.

8:56 Dan Shulman: “If you’re Scott Brooks, you have to love the free throws.” No, really?

9:00 Doris Burke is really getting comfortable as she jokes around like she’s one of the guys. Oh wait, is she one of the guys?

9:02 What will all these bandwagon, hype machines say when the Lakers come back and wipe the floor with the Thunder in the next two games? Will they admit that they sorely exaggerated their claims earlier?

9:06 You know you’re getting your butt handed to you when Kevin Ollie just checked in against you.

9:08 The score is 105-79 Thunder. There is 4:33 left. I’m disgusted, and I’m quitting early.

9:10 I’m never doing another running diary again. Whose idea was this?







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A Revisiting and Revising Continued

Are Kobe and LeBron destined to finally meet in the Finals?



This is a continuation of the NBA Playoffs preview column.

We've reached the end of another marathon season to embark on....a marathon postseason. Over the next two months, several things could happen. Assuming that Portland survives deep into the Western Conference Playoffs, Brandon Roy could return to the floor from surgery to repair a torn meniscus. A team could struggle in the opening round, survive an upset bid, look better in the second round, then completely round into shape by the conference finals (Lakers, Boston, and Denver). A team could do the exact opposite (I'm looking at you Phoenix, Utah, and Miami). Lady GaGa could debut another asinine single, peak at #1, then have everyone who listens to pop music forget about it. The sun could set on Tim Duncan's career. Ben Roethlisberger could be charged with somewhere between 2 and 7 sexual assaults. Kevin Durant or LeBron or Dirk Nowitzki or Steve Nash could take their names off the "Best Player to Never Win A Title" list.

The point is, the NBA Playoffs are long. REALLY long. Even though it takes a long time to develop, I'm glad that there's a substantial amount of basketball still to come. A lot can happen over the next two months, especially in the suicidal Western Conference. My preseason predictions were way off, but how can I be expected to differentiate among 4-7 teams that are essentially interchangeable? I feel no shame. I do, though, feel some playoff predictions coming on.

aaaaaaaaaaaand.....here they are.


#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Oklahoma City Thunder

This is how good the West is: we get to see Kobe-Durant in Round 1. The incumbent 2nd best player in the league against the new 2nd best player in the league. A former 35 ppg scorer vs. the reigning (and youngest ever) scoring champ. An exhilarating, we're-not-sure-how-good-we-ar e-yet upstart against the experienced, savvy defending Champs. The Lakers have looked mediocre for the last month, while OKC has been riding high and is brimming with confidence. One of the true barometers of a team's legitimacy is their road record. OKC was 23-18 away from home this year, which is pretty good for the youngest team in the NBA. The cold truth is that the Lakers have way too much for OKC to handle down low in Pau Gasol, the rehabbed Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom. No way Nenad Krstic, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison can hold them down. OKC can compete, but not this year. Wrong team, wrong Round 1 opponent.

Los Angeles in 5


#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs

The Mavs win the award for Best Deadline Roster Makeover. The additions of Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler give them a certified low post presence and shot blocker, more athleticism and toughness on the perimeter, and great free throw shooting. It's hard to pick against a team that trots out Kidd, Butler, Marion, Nowitzki, and Haywood/Contract Year Dampier and brings Terry, Beaubois, and JJ Barea off the bench. The Spurs have clearly declined over the last 2 regular seasons to the point that everyone has finally taken them off the list of title contenders. With Tony Parker out (as usual), this team has played masterfully down the stretch. Ginobili has carried them in every imaginable way, and George Hill has turned into a capable ball handler and shooter. Still, this team lives and dies with Duncan, and sadly, the lights are juuuuuuuust about to go out on him. This year, he posted career lows in scoring, rebounding, minutes played, blocks, free throws attempted, and field goals attempted. The Spurs respond strongly when they are counted out for certain, and this is my decision to count them out for 2010.


Dallas in 6


#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers

Without superstar Brandon Roy, Portland really has no chance against this Phoenix team. Since not being shipped off at the trade deadline,
Amare and Nash led Phoenix to a 22-6 record after the All-Star break
Suns forward Amare Stoudemire has been pathologically motivated, going for nearly 27/10/56% FG over that span, the likes of which we have never seen before. Nash just submitted one of his top two seasons at age 36, and coach Alvin Gentry has finally found a rotation that works with Jared Dudley, Jason Richardson, and the injured Robin Lopez. Phoenix will stay hot enough to breeze by Portland, but will not got very far without the integral presence of Lopez. Defense is a must have deeper in the playoffs, and Phoenix doesn't have much.


Phoenix in 4


#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz

Probably the best series of the first round.
George Karl took Denver's mojo with him when he left the bench
Denver cruised at #2 in the West all year long, then really hit a rough patch when coach George Karl went on hiatus for cancer treatment. Nobody knew how much of an impact his presence and coaching has on the Nuggets. They tumbled to the 4-seed in the West and into a tough series with Utah. Chauncey Billups will have his hands full with Deron Williams, and Kenyon Martin's return to the post is crucial in keeping Carlos Boozer quiet. With Andrei Kirilenko out for the series with a calf injury, Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith will have mismatches on the perimeter. Carmelo's play will decide the outcome of this series if the Billups-Williams and Martin-Boozer battles are relatively even. If Kirilenko were playing, I'd go with Utah, but his revitalized play in the second half will be sorely missed.

Denver in 7


Western Conference Semifinals


#1 LA Lakers vs. #4 Denver Nuggets

This rematch of the 2009 Western Finals is sure to rekindle some nasty feelings, the likes of which will only be intensified by Ron Artest's presence. Without George Karl's invisible impact, Denver can't beat the Lakers. The longer the Lakers hang around, the more they'll get on their feet and regain their superior form. Denver was good at home this season, but just 19-22 on the road. You can't have success in the playoffs if you don't win on the road, and Denver would have to play 4 games in LA over the full series.

Billups' eyes will light up every time Derek Fisher checks in because he can do whatever he wants in that matchup. Other than at point guard, Denver has no advantages. The Lakers have more than enough muscle to handle the physical Nuggets big men, and Artest should be adequate to handle Anthony. As a Laker fan, I'm hoping that the purple and gold will have rounded into shape by this point in the playoffs, but that's no guarantee. Anyone can get beat over a 7 game series if they don't play well.


Los Angeles in 6


#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #3 Phoenix Suns

Both of these teams have been among the league's top 5 since the All-Star break. Both are on the short list of teams that nobody wants to meet in a 7 game series. Unfortunately for them, they'll meet prematurely in the second round. Fortunately for us, it will be another dynamite matchup between evenly-matched teams. The Nash-Kidd battle should be fantastic: two should-be-over-the-hill superstars who have run their teams as dominantly as ever in 09-10. Both play little defense at this juncture of their careers, but their offensive games are as sharp as ever. Nowitzki and Stoudemire and Stoudemre will probably guard each other, which should be another amazing battle. Amare hasn't encountered many teams that have the personnel to rough him up in the post, but the Mavs can. If Brendan Haywood is healthy and swatting shots, Amare might find himself with a lack of easy shots around the rim, which will force him to the top of the key for his patented 20 foot jumper. If jumpshooting Amare shows up, the Mavs will win. If Amare is getting to the basket at will and getting plenty of free throws, Phoenix has a great shot.

This series might come down to whoever can have a 1 record on the road. I say whoever wins one more on the road than the other will win this series. I can easily see the Suns stealing a high-scoring Game 7 against a frustrated Dirk on the Mavs' floor for a date with the Lakers in the West Finals. In fact, that's my pick; nobody would have predicted that the Phoenix Suns who started this season would become a title contender again in the Nash era, but that has become the reality.


Phoenix in 7


Western Conference Finals


#1 LA Lakers vs. #3 Phoenix Suns


A classic matchup between Pacific Division rivals. From 05-08, the Suns dominated this series at the height of Nash's Fun-N-Gun. Once the Lakers ripped Pau Gasol from Memphis, the Lakers vaulted above the Suns over night and into the West's throne room. The Lakers have huge problems at the point guard position, but then again, that fact hasn't changed since last season's Championship roster. Nash should be giddy about this matchup, especially with the way he and his team has jelled over the last 2 months. Again, if Phoenix doesn't have Robin Lopez back by the Dallas series, they won't even get out of the second round. If Lopez is playing by the Conference Finals, he could slow down Gasol just enough to keep him from being so hyper-efficient on offense. Amare is going to challenge Gasol and the fragile Bynum at the rim, and if he induces foul trouble, he could be unstoppable late in games. I've made it this far without mentioning Kobe's name more than once. That's kind of what Kobe's game has become over the last 2 seasons. He's there from the beginning and you know it. He may take it slow and lay low for a while, but he is always the reckoning force when the end comes. The Lakers won the season series 3-1 against the Suns while hardly breaking a sweat. It would appear that the Suns do not match up with the Lakers very well this season, but only one of those games took place after Amare's non-trade at the deadline. Pre-deadline and post-deadline Phoenix may as well be counted as different teams. The Suns lost that one meeting with the Lakers since, but they will still be a team that the Lakers will not take lightly.

In the end, good offense and an opportunistic--not necessarily good--defense will win out. Say what you want about Ron Artest and his contributions to the Lakers this season, but he is the one new variable on a team that gives up 2 less points per night than last season. Kobe is the ultimate closer, and if this series happens to make it past 5 games, the Lakers can rest easy knowing that Kobe will get whatever he wants on offense when it counts.


Los Angeles in 6


Surprise, surprise. That leaves Kobe's top-seeded Lakers against LeBron's top-seeded Cavs in the matchup of the century. So many questions remain. Does LeBron have what it takes to match competitive wits with Kobe? Does LeBron have the determination to win at all costs? Can he sacrifice a little bit of having fun with his teammates to demand their best and dig into them when absolutely necessary? Do the Lakers care enough to repeat? Does Phil Jackson?
Artest is up for some prestigious awards this postseason
Will Ron Artest attempt to best Dennis Rodman for Best Playoff Hair Color and Most Hair Dyes in one postseason? Can Kobe dry the cement of his legacy as a top 3 guard of all time with a 5th title?

These questions will all be answered in the next two months. Boy, I'm excited. I hope you are, too. Let the postseason begin!



























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A Revisiting and Revising

Image Courtesy of ESPN.com



The end of the NBA regular season has come. Nearly 6 months of basketball culminated on one night, all 30 teams in play, and playoff position on the line. With the entire season under our belt of collective knowledge and experience, I'm eager to look forward and offer some predictions. First, however, I want to look back and assess my predictions from the start of the year.

In the East, I had the top 4 correct, and 5 of the top 6 with the exception of the Washington Gunmen. I had Orlando and Cleveland reversed from how they actually finished, as well as Boston and Atlanta. Miami finished 5th. I had them finishing 6th. I also flip-flopped on Charlotte and Chicago in the 7th and 8th spots. The one team I missed on was the Bucks, and I REALLY missed on them. I indefensibly predicted Milwaukee to finish dead last in the East, saying "This will not be a happy year for Bucks fans." Who knew Brandon Jennings would be so ready to handle life and competition in the NBA so soon? At any rate, with the best record in the NBA since the All-Star break, Milwaukee is not a squad that Atlanta will take lightly in the first round.

Overall, I find myself having correctly picked 7 of the 8 Eastern playoff teams, all within one spot of their actual finish. Wow. Aren't you impressed? If sports betting were legal, I could probably make a killing. Oh wait, you CAN bet on sports on the Internet? How come nobody told me this until now?

As for the West, what can we say? With OKC's victory over Memphis in Game 82, we find all 8 Western playoff teams with 50 wins. Incredible. As for my preseason prognosis on the Thunder, I did a lot of gushing about how good this team will be, and missed their rise to the playoffs just slightly. I had them 10th, and they finished 8th.
Mr. Reprehensible himself. Until he "stepped down
If not for the reprehensible Clippers, my prediction would have been just one spot off.

Picking the West at the beginning of the season is like trying to walk blindfolded through a field full of active World War I claymores. Proceed at your own risk. I tried anyway, and the results were almost directly inverted. I picked the Spurs and Blazers to finish behind the Lakers. They finished 7th and 6th, respectively. I had Dallas 4th, and they finished 2nd on the strength of a big trade and the ageless Jason Kidd. Utah I picked correctly as the 5 seed, and Phoenix slayed me with a very impressive finish to the end of their year, grabbing the 3 seed on closing night against my prediction of 6th. New Orleans would have been right around where I picked them at 7th if not for missing Chris Paul for half the season. I inexplicably managed to put the Clippers and the Nuggets in a tie for 8th, as if they'd both get in to the playoffs. Both predictions couldn't have been much further off, with the Clips sputtering to a 12th place finish and Denver grabbing the 4 seed.

So there are my predicted finishes. The East predictions were spot-on, the West ones were not. I think this outcome is symbolic for how this postseason will play out, with a lot of concentration at the top of the East, and a lot of dilution all over the West. Here are the matchups, along with my revamped predictions.


Eastern Conference First Round

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have been all over the map this season. They've had a few terrible runs, as well as some hot streaks that made you think, "Wow, the Bulls look really good. How is it possible that Vinny Del Negro has coached them to a .500 record?" The John Salmons experiment did not work out, much to Milwaukee's delight, and I think the Bulls are better off for it with Kirk Hinrich ending up with more minutes. Cleveland out-mans Chicago at every position except point guard, and should take this series easily. However, the memory of Derrick Rose in last year's heavyweight bout with Boston burns brightly in my mind. Mo Williams doesn't play much in the way of defense, so don't be surprised if Rose eats him up and makes this series interesting.

Cleveland in 5


#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats

This is an intriguing matchup that may not be as much of a lock for Orlando as expected. Charlotte kills it on defense to the tune of a league best 93.8 points allowed per game, and Orlando survives on hot shooting and high scoring. Charlotte is tough, Orlando necessarily is not with the exception of Dwight Howard. Even Dwight Howard's toughness and focus and physicality can even be legitimately questioned. If Charlotte slows down the pace and dictates the flow to Orlando, they could push the Magic to the limit in a few dogfights. Watch for Gerald Wallace's eyes to light up when he gets to the opening tip and sees Matt Barnes or Vince Carter is guarding him. Stephen Jackson has done some crazy stuff in his career. Adding an upset of a #2 seed to that list is not inconceivable to me. Orlando has as good of a chance as any to win the NBA title, but I think they can be exploited over 7 games...and I need a bold upset pick.

Charlotte in 7


#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks

Again, Atlanta will not take the Bucks lightly, given the way they've played since the break. Since trading for John Salmons, the Bucks have gone 22-8 and developed a swagger that makes them confident and dangerous. Unfortunately, they lost their franchise center Andrew Bogut, who was having a career year, for the remainder of the season to a nasty elbow injury. With him, they have a chance to take the Hawks. Without him, they have no answer for Josh Smith and Al Horford in the middle. As much of an improvement as he's been, Salmons is no matchup one-on-one for Joe Johnson, and the Atlanta bench has proved itself to be somewhat deep and reliable.

Atlanta in 5


#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Miami Heat

Let's stop and take in this sight: the Celtics barely mustered 50 wins after adding Sheed's
He should have mixed in a push up or a jog this year
offseason body and the serviceable Marquis Daniels. KG is half the player he used to be, only he still talks as much trash as he ever did. Pierce seems like he can't take over a game anymore, Rondo has outgrown the little brother act that allowed the Celtics to grab their one title, and Kendrick Perkins is just an idiot. Ahhhhhh. Nothing makes me happier than to see this team sell its future down the river for what has amounted to one only one title. Let's move on.

Miami is hot, having won 12 of their final 13 games to sneak into the 5th spot. Flash Wade is a free agent looking for a top 3 richest contract this summer, and he has plenty of motivation to stir the pot this spring. Oh, and he's healthy too, which has always been his Achilles heel (pun intended). If Jermaine O'Neal can avoid self-destructing, Joel Anthony can change a shot and grab a rebound or two, and Udonis Haslem can hit his baseline jumper, I think Miami has a great shot at winning this thing. However, the Celtics know how to dig deep and get the job done when they have to. That is something that doesn't fade with age.

Boston in 7



Eastern Conference Semifinals


#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Boston Celtics

The Cavs are what the Celtics were two seasons ago: superstar in his prime who is desperate for his first ring, favored and expected to reach the Finals, short and long-term future uncertain. The Cavs have LeBron in the first of his primes and a supporting cast that may finally be adequate. The Celtics have 3 aging and suddenly overpaid superstars who don't seem to have it anymore. Everyone has seen the Celtics' downfall this year and has written them off as non-threats. Like I said before, they know how to win and they've been to the top before. However overmatched, they will not go easily. Cleveland, though, seems like they're destined to play in June.

Cleveland in 6


#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats

These are two perimeter-oriented teams with good backcourts. Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Ray Felton, Stephen Jackson, and Jamal Crawford will make for an entertaining matchup. Down low, Theo Ratliff (a) never seems to age (b) is a good neutralizer for the Hawks' deft scorers Horford and Smith. Ratliff's size and shot blocking are unmatched, and he could cause major problems for the Hawks big men. If they can't get going, this may turn into who has the best backcourt. Johnson and Co. should prove to be slightly superior to Captain Jack and his mates. If Atlanta can steal one in Charlotte, they'll sweep at home after going 34-7 at Philips Arena and have little trouble.

Atlanta in 5



Eastern Conference Finals


#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #3 Atlanta Hawks

Cleveland went 3-1 in the regular season against the Hawks, handling them easily in the final two meetings. The playoffs should be more of the same. At this point, LeBron will be smelling blood as he nears his return to the NBA Finals. Cleveland will have learned from last season when Orlando blindsided them en route to a 5 game series win. I'd be shocked if LeBron allowed that to happen again, even if he has to go 1 on 5 every time down the court. He's been fantastic again statistically, but I've seen a hint of the pathological need to win that Jordan and Kobe possess, which is what currently separates them from him. Atlanta will have to play a perfect series to win, and they'll have to win in Cleveland, which I don't think they can do.

Cleveland in 6


I know, I know, picking the top seed and best team in the league is boring and predictable. My question is, who else can possibly beat the Cavs 4 out of 7 times? The answer is no one. That's why I pick Cleveland, because its sensible.

Anyways, the Western Conference playoff preview will come shortly (hopefully before the playoffs begin on Saturday).



















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Late Round Madness

Off the top, I'd like to thank the Sport Maharishi for his fantastic guest column. I had my reservations about his writing ability and analytical prowess, but he passed my test with flying colors. Also, he's usually not that funny in real life. I really have to hand it to him. We'll look to work him into the routine on an infrequent, but consistent, basis. Let's give him a round of applause and post some comments on his post to show our appreciation.

(waiting for applause to stop...)
(still waiting...)
(still waiting...)

Wow, a very appreciative and generous audience. Let's move on.


Can we consider Butler a Cinderella squad?


After 60 of 63 games, the NCAA Championship is down to its Final Four. In what has been one of the best tournaments of my young life, parity, shocking upsets, and unforgettable finishes have reigned supreme. You're not going to want to skip that link. I'll wait for you to watch it. Go on. And............done.) Viewers have gotten far more than their money's worth in this tournament given the 20 games decided by 5 points or less, and the near dozen more decided by 10 or less. Just when you thought your heart and stomach couldn't handle another contest decided on the final possession, it invariably came. Several times over the first four rounds, I found myself physically exhausted from watching. You know its a great tournament when you work up a little man (or woman) sweat during your viewing sessions.

The Big Dance's 2nd weekend saw the underdogs bring their A games. We said farewell to #1 Syracuse and then #2 Kansas State in the West region, both the hands of #5 seeded regional champ Butler. #6 Tennessee upended #2 Ohio State in the Midwest, only to lose a thriller to #5 Michigan State for a trip to the Final Four. The juggernaut out of the SEC, #1 Kentucky, was upset by moderately heavy underdog #2 West Virginia in the East regional final. The South region is really the only bracket in which the chalk (definition 1) prevailed, with #1 Duke claiming its spot in the Final Four by handling #3 Baylor. If you're keeping track at home, that's a Final Four of #5 Butler, #5 Michigan State, #2 West Virginia, and #1 Duke. Fifth seeds making it to the Final Four is nothing unusual, but the lack of at least two top seeds is. It seemed like Duke was trying its darnedest to survive the giant-killing that toppled its fellow #1 seeds in the previous two rounds as they battled Baylor in Houston on Sunday. In the end, Duke fought off the very dangerous Bears, who exceeded most expectations and performed admirably. I'll give you my deep analysis on Baylor in a little bit.

(warning: this next paragraph is a semi-well-informed analysis that will simultaneously feed and reinforce my fanatical bias for Duke. Yeah, I love Duke. I said it. Sue me.)

Coach K is the face of America's Most Hated Team. Admit it, you only hate him and Duke because they're always so bloody good.



Maybe the simple fact that Duke survived its region and made it to Indianapolis is a sign that they're going to win the championship. They obviously have some quality that Kansas, Syracuse, and Kentucky didn't have for surviving 3 straight best-game-of-their-season opponents, right? Yeah, the #1 seeds are supposed to make it to the Final Four, but that is obviously never a given, as evidenced by the absence of the consensus 3 best teams in the country. I think the ability to match your opponent's intensity level, stay composed in a possible upset, not try to do too much, and to execute the game plan that earned you a #1 seed cannot be understated. Kentucky, Syracuse, and Kansas all failed at least one of those litmus tests, while Duke has managed to fulfill all of them thus far. Still, if you were to tell someone that only 1 top seed would reach the Final Four this year, and then asked them to pick which it was, very few would have guessed Duke, myself included.

This Duke team is largely the same as the past several uninspiring editions with a couple BIG differences. First, they play defense as well as anybody in the country, allowing a stingy 61.1 points per game. Second, they have developed an imposing front line that thrives on the Blue Devils traditional weakness: rebounding. Duke ranked 5th in the nation in rebounding this season, and 6th in offensive rebounding.
This is Steve Wojciechowski, all-time leader in Floor Slaps
Third, they continue to do well the things they're known for: shooting the three-pointer, excelling at the free throw line, and leading the NCAA in floor slaps. Combine the old with the new, sprinkle in lots of upper class leadership from Jon Scheyer and Lance Thomas, and you have a Duke that has a legit crack at a title for the first time in 10 years, much to the nation's chagrin.

Baylor is a fun team to watch. Ekpe Udoh is a high-flyer in the middle, with several hellacious alley-oop or put-back dunks against Duke. He's an impressive athlete with a well-rounded game: he finished the season as second on the team in assists to point guard Tweety Carter, third in scoring, and first in rebounding. He also swatted 5 shots against Duke. I love coach Scott Drew. I don't know how else to explain it except that he seems like a really nice guy and a great coach. He stands for everything good about college basketball and its coaches in stark contrast to questionable character coaches like Rick Pitino, John Calipari, Kelvin Sampson, and others. Not to mention, he's the son of Valparaiso University coach Homer Drew, and brother of Valpo hero Bryce Drew. Nice pedigree there. The problem of Baylor is that they'll never be successful as long as their best players have names like LaceDarius and Tweety. These guys are nice players no doubt, but anytime your best players are named LaceDarius and Tweety, you can't win the tournament. And they didn't. However, I defy you to find me a better pair of teammate names anywhere in the history of professional sports.

We saw potential Cinderellas finally meet their match, as Northern Iowa, Xavier, St. Mary's, Cornell, and Washington bowed out in the Sweet 16, all to teams seeded no lower than third in their region with the exception of #5 Michigan State. We saw Cornell bring major credibility to the Ivy League as the Big Red went blow for blow with Kentucky, at least for a half. We saw one Ewing Theory threat go (Purdue) and another suddenly arrive (Michigan State). We saw Kansas State and Xavier play the best game of the tournament (which is saying a lot).

A few thoughts about that KState-Xavier game. First, the clutch shooting by both teams from beyond the arc (I'm looking at you Jacob Pullen, Jordan Crawford, and Terrell Holloway) was brilliant. Being a shooter myself, I can't say enough about the fortitude to step into those shots with confidence in do-or-die situations. Second, Jordan Crawford might be the best player that played in this tournament, and he showed why. If his team had beaten Kansas State, then Butler, we'd be talking about him as a top 10 pick in the 2010 Draft lottery right now. We shouldn't hold against him the fact that he plays in the A-10 at Xavier. Third, can you imagine how many murders Frank Martin might have committed if his team hadn't won the game? He went homicidal after the refs gave Holloway 3 free throws when his players clearly fouled Holloway at least once before he heaved a no-chance prayer at the basket. If I were the zebras in that game, and Xavier came out on top, I would have ran for the hills as fast as humanly possible in fear of Frank. That guy is insane.

Fourth, and most importantly, what is there left to say about play-by-play guy Gus Johnson? Everybody already knows he's the best, but he keeps proving it over again. If you told me that there would be a double-OT thriller in the Round of 16 with lots of fast action, crazy unthinkable plays, and asked me to pick who I would want to call the game, Gus would unquestionably be the guy. His excitement and noise level are what makes him so memorable. This could be thought of as annoying or unprofessional, and maybe it is, but I think I figured out why he has such mass appeal to the fan. In spots of high magnitude on televised games, Gus keeps it simple and doesn't try to do too much, which is the trap that most commentators fall into. Instead of explaining away or trying to instant-analyze a great play, Gus just gets excited, yelling and screaming like a fan himself. Again, why does this work? Because when greatness strikes, that is what fans do: go nuts, yell and scream, jump around, run through the house. In special moments, Gus' announcing style meshes perfectly with the identity of the fan. No need to tell us what happened, we saw it on the screen already. Thankfully, CBS pulled their heads out from a dark place in time to assign him to his own region this year; we're all better for it. I salute you Gus, thank you. See you next season.

I wish I could tell you more about Butler, but I can't. What I do know is that they play with tons of heart, which is typical code to signify a lack of athleticism or talent. They are wonderfully team-oriented, disciplined, well-coached, and cerebral. They play defense and aren't afraid of the big moment on the big stage. Other than that, I can tell you that it will be easy to sleep on them, even after consecutive upsets and a Final Four appearance. Michigan State: you've been warned--do not take Brad Stevens' Bulldogs lightly.

Speaking of Michigan State, I take my hat off. Tom Izzo is quite possibly the best tournament coach ever (apologies to John Wooden). The way his teams morph once the Dance begins is phenomenal. Nobody does so much with less than Izzo. Above average Spartan teams, but not special by any means, become experienced, smart, and dangerous in March. Last year, they were overlooked, even as a #2 seed, and marched unexpectedly through top seeds Louisville and Connecticut into the title game. This year, many predicted a second round exit to Maryland, but, as always, Izzo had other ideas, and now his team has reached its second consecutive Final Four despite the loss of its best player, point guard Kalin Lucas. Lucas went down with a tournament-ending leg injury in the Maryland game, but has watched his team rally to 3 wins in his absence. Again, Izzo's ability to get the best out of his team at the right time is evident. How many other coaches could rally and motivate their team to 3 straight wins during the most important part of the season? Few, if any. Michigan State will take on Butler, and, like stated earlier, will have incredible Ewing Theory potential next weekend in Indy. After their inspired run last year, the misfortune that has befallen the city of Detroit, and the feel-good aura of this year's team, I will be rooting for the Spartans to return to the national title game on Monday.

I don't really want to talk about West Virginia, they somewhat bore me. Besides, you've probably heard all about them on ESPN all year. I'll be back later in the week with a more detailed breakdown of each national semifinal, and maybe even an appearance from the Maharishi.
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Madness? This is Sparta(ns)!

Is This Heaven? No, it's Iowa.


Before we begin our column, I’d like to take a moment to point out that I am not the Sport (no ‘s’) Guru. Most of you would have probably picked up on that rather quickly due to asking yourselves questions like “why is this blog written so well this time?” and stating “I haven’t been that entertained since Jenga last Tuesday.!” No, the Guru is swamped with college ‘work,’ which I presume includes cleaning the beer pong table, building up his tolerance level, and voiding himself of any coherency required to write a blog. (Kidding, the Guru is a stand-up individual). In any event, he gave me the opportunity to write a guest blog, which I graciously accepted. I also have his login and password, so there may be more than one of these coming out in the next few weeks.

Since this is a sports blog and it is March, I figured I’d do a write-up following what I feel….scratch that, what IS the greatest weekend in sports- The opening rounds of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament. Like many of you, I was fired up to see if Pat Summit could reach the summit again, if UConn’s men’s team could continue it’s run of winning 71 consecutive games against female opponents, and if that one girl for Baylor would try to land anymore haymakers. Wait….hold on one second…your kidding? There’s a MEN’S tournament too? Who knew?

Ok ok, I really did know there was a men’s tournament. Like many of you I was fired up heading into Thursday. My freshly filled out bracket hung proudly in my office and was posted on numerous online websites. I relished at the chance to talk college hoops with people and carefully tried to figure out ways I could relate office issues to the tournament.

Employee #1: “Why am I only allowed to print in black and white?”
Employee #2: “I know, so unfair.”
Yours truly: “Speaking of black and white, who do you have in the Florida-BYU game? I think Jimmer Fredette goes off.”

Thanks to the internet, a job that doesn’t require I do a ton of work, a strategically placed cubicle and computer screen, and a 3 day weekend, I watched an inordinate amount of college basketball this weekend (excluding the NIT, CBI, and CIT). The Thursday morning session did not disappoint, as BYU-Florida went to double OT (and Jimmer Fredette did go off, scoring 37 points). Murray State shocked everyone except those from the state of Murray, beating Vanderbilt at the buzzer. Even Old Dominion capitalized on a St. Patrick’s day hangover and beat the sluggish Notre Dame Irish. Friday was just as good, with the Nerds of Cornell handling Temple and Northern Iowa getting a huge three from Ali Farokhmanesh to beat UNLV. Then things started to crazy, nay, mad.

The weekend saw 3 double digit seeds and 1 giant killer advance to the Sweet 16 in what feels like the most upset-driven second round in my lifetime. Cornell again blew out their opponent, carving up a Wisconsin defense for 87 points. Previously, Wisconsin’s defense had given up more than 70 points only twice all year, both in overtime games. Though the Ivy League is considered a ‘shooter’s league,’ very few could have predicted Cornell would shoot 63% for the weekend and have no trouble with two highly ranked and very talented teams.

Why study when you can play in the Sweet 16?


Washington gave much-needed credibility to the Pac-10 with their dismantling of New Mexico. After needing a miracle in the form of Quincy Pondexter’s bank shot to beat Marquette, Washington ran New Mexico out of the gym. Though Cal was blown out by Duke and the Pac-10 justifiably only received 2 bids, Washington’s victories may bolster how the National (see, East Coast) media perceives the Pac-10 Conference and may help next year when at-large bids are handed out.

In perhaps the biggest surprise/shock/bombshell, Northern Iowa upset Kansas. 98% of the people who filled out brackets on ESPN.com had KU in the Sweet 16, 48% of America had them winning the whole thing, including this writer. Seriously, I think if you polled America and asked them, ‘Which is more likely to happen- Brad and Angelina will split and I’ll be there to pick up the pieces (depending on your gender/orientation), or Northern Iowa will upset Kansas?’- I’m pretty sure people are getting freaked out because they believe at least half of Brangelina will show up on their doorstep. Northern Iowa epitomized team ball, getting offensive and defensive contribution from everyone who played, none bigger than the charge taken by freshman Jake Koch in the final minute and the boulder-testicle sized 3-pointer by Farokhmanesh to ice the game.

KU will lose or I'll get to kiss one of these people.


Aside from mine and half of America’s brackets now looking like a failing middle-schooler’s math test and my beloved Jayhawks crapping the bed, it was an incredible weekend of hoops and only reaffirmed why it’s the best 3 weeks in all of sports. Before we go, I thought I’d briefly list some of the weekend’s winners and losers in additions to the one’s already written about. You’ve all been a great audience, thanks for your eyes.

Winners:

The cities of Ithaca, NY and Cedar Falls, IA- Thanks to Cornell and Northern Iowa, respectively, now the rest of the country knows you actually exist.

The Ivy League- I won’t tell you why, but it’s nice to see this conference get some respect in something other than academic related areas. And secret societies.

Vegas- Seriously, I’d like to know how much cheddar Vegas just banked when KU lost. I almost wonder if Bill Self made a huge wager in Vegas and then cashed in on his team’s misfortunes. In that case, Bill Self would be a winner too.

Mike Krzyzewski- His look hasn’t changed in 20 years. Seriously, go look him up in the early 90s. Identical.

Pat Forde- see here

Barry-O certainly isn't clapping about his bracket.


Losers:

Gus Johnson- With the exception of a fast-paced Missouri-Clemson game, Gus was given the West Virginia-Morgan State blowout, Gonzaga routing Florida State, and Syracuse cruising in their first two games. Probably the biggest disappointment of the weekend was not having the chance to hear Gus get over-the-top excited. I hope he at least gets a good regional.

Barack Obama- His Baracket is officially screwed after picking KU and Nova (seriously Mr. President? Nova? Your daily planner guy went to Duke and everything) to reach the Final Four. At least his health care thing past, so he can’t be feeling that bad.

CBS- Did anyone else notice the horrendous job CBS did in covering games? In the West Coast we had to watch a Duke blowout of Cal while Purdue and Texas A&M went down to the wire. We got Washington hammering New Mexico while Northern Iowa was taking down Kansas. And when we did get an exciting game, we got the final minute, when it’s usually timeouts and fouls. On top of all that, CBS rejected an offer to interview Tiger Woods. And I’m pretty sure Seth Davis wore the same suit Thursday and Friday. Glad you guys are here.

Cornell- Have fun replacing Steve Donahue.

Houston- What’s your reward for making the tournament for the first time in 18 years? Getting badly beaten by Maryland in the first round and watching your coach retire 3 days later.

Canada- for the 157th consecutive year, no Canadian teams made the field of 65.

- The Sport Maharishi
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The NBA's MLP: Most Lazy Player



While everyone on the big basketball sites hands out their midseason award picks, I'd like to offer one of my own: the MLP, Most Lazy Player.

Just in case the picture didn't spoil the mystery as to the 2009-2010 MLP is, let me introduce him.....Amar'e Stoudemire, everybody!

Never have I seen such a unique combination of limitless athletic potential and utter indifference on the basketball court. Actually, I don't know if indifference is the right word. Apathy, lack of discipline, arrogance, missing work ethic, laziness? There, laziness, that's the right one. While everyone loves to watch the Phoenix Suns play, I have grown to dislike watching them, mostly because of the way Stoudemire plays. If you tune into a Suns game at any given moment, you're likely to see Amar'e moving exclusively between the free throw lines, and leisurely at that.

Granted, its fairly easy to stand around and watch while Steve Nash is executing his brilliance all over the offensive side of the court, but one of the league's most imposing and dominant specimens has relegated himself into a near-exclusive jump shooter. Rarer and rarer are the charging dribble drives that turn into powerful finishes at the rim or thunderous dunks over unsuspecting defenders. Usually, he stands at the top of the key waiting for Nash to feed him for a jumper, which is the path of least resistance.

On defense, his lack of effort is obvious: he blocks a mere 1.0 shots per game and grabs only 8.3 boards per game, which is the 2nd worst he's averaged over a season. EIGHT rebounds a game!?!?! This guy is SO athletically superior that he could average 28 points and 15 rebounds a night, no doubt. That is how far above the rest he is. No one can stop Amar'e when his head is in the game and he feels like playing.

Anyone who is worth their weight in basketball knowledge knows the importance of simply bending your knees on D and being in a stance. Stoudemire missed the day they taught this at basketball school. Standing straight up most of the time, he only makes impact plays when they fall in his lap. I'm not sure if he has problems with his focus, mental toughness, or what, but his inconsistency is maddening.


Stoudemire turned in the best piece of his MLP resume just the other night against Dallas. His line for that game: 22 points on 7-13 FG and 8-10 FT, 1 REB, 5 TO, and 1 BLK in 26:40. He hauled in ONE rebound. Shocking and depressing for someone so unfathomably gifted.
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Is This About Guns, or.....?



Washington Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas’ suspension has been handed down from David Stern, but that doesn’t mean the story is finished changing, er, developing. Days after the initial reports of a gun confrontation in the lockerroom between Arenas and teammate Javaris Crittenton were falsified, confusion has set in as to what exactly Arenas was disciplined for. In a statement that accompanied the announcement of the suspension, Commissioner Stern said that Arenas’ behavior makes him “not currently fit to take the court.” Now, as the supposed truth about what really happened on the team plane and later in the lockerroom is revealed, and in light of Arenas pregame actions Tuesday night, Stern’s rationale for punishment appears relatively ambiguous.

Arenas has sung the tune of innocence and jest throughout the investigation. He showed no signs of relenting when, during pregame intros against Philadelphia on Tuesday, he shot up his encircling teammates with finger pistols and a wide grin. This had to stoke Stern’s wrath while watching from his office in New York City. The question is, did this occurrence color Stern’s decision on how to punish the Wizards star? Should it? If Arenas did nothing wrong, as he claims, and has no fear of legal authorities in the matter, then could it be that this whole thing is incredibly trumped up and exaggerated by the media?

I am not condoning Arenas’ comments or behavior at all. His constant joking about the guns is inappropriate and creates the perception that he doesn’t take this issue seriously. The gun language in the NBA collective bargaining agreement is clear and strong, and, in the least, he violated that code. Rumors are that his guns were also unlicensed, and he certainly carried them across state lines from Virginia into the District of Columbia. These are the things we know, everything else regarding the lockerroom confrontation is speculation. The fact that the report has changed a handful of times already testifies to this.

My concern is this, and not just because I’m an enraged fantasy NBA owner of Arenas: as the legal case against Gil apparently weakens, it looks like David Stern came down hard for minor NBA personal conduct violations, some mostly harmless joking, a flippant attitude, and trumped up rumors by anti-gun media. To be fair, Stern was between a rock and a hard place: he had to discipline Arenas, harshly at that, and could not afford to lose public support by waiting to act. The spineless, but savvy, move was to suspend Arenas indefinitely and possibly further discipline him “pending completion of the investigation by the NBA.” In other words, “I’m going to wait and see if anything substantive turns up in the investigation that I can use to punish this punk even more. If not, then I’ll define the suspension and tone it down a bit.” By suspending Arenas indefinitely, Stern covers himself while still reserving his power to tinker with the suspension as truth comes out.

So if Arenas is absolved of all felonious activity and his discipline begins and ends with Stern’s suspension, does that mean that Stern will end the suspension or rescind his salary losses? Fat chance. This is the issue I have with this whole scenario and the portrayal of Arenas as the bad guy. Does Arenas' behavior truly make him currently unfit to play? Or is it his defiance of Stern that makes him unfit? Or his careless attitude about a serious matter? If you ask and find answers to these questions, it seems to me like Stern has nothing concrete to act on. Either that, or he should suspend every guy in his league who has a bad attitude about something or does something personally disrespectful to Stern.
I like you David Stern, you've done great things for the NBA, but barring confidential knowledge that I'm not aware of yet, you sure look like a power-tripping hypocrite here, and my fantasy team stands to suffer because of it.

Does Stern really want to administer justice? He should come down hard, if not harder, on Javaris Crittenton.
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College Basketball Conference Preview

As college football wraps up its season with a slate of magnificently boring and pointless bowl games, the college basketball conference season is just firing up. The league schedule in college hoops is among the most riveting portions of any season in any sport. The turf wars between teams that hate each other, the familiarity that each team has with its leaguemates' scheme and personnel, and the passion of prideful student sections are just a few of the aspects that add to the intensity of this part of the season. At this point, most coaches know what they've got to work with, now its time to adjust to their players, game plan, and improve on the mistakes of the preseason.

The script entering each season is that the favorites do not lose to the big underdogs; 2008's Final Four was the first in history to feature all four #1 seeds. This trend continued into last year, with no team below a 3 seed reaching the Final Four. This is how the big dance is set up, and it plays out in recruiting the same way. Thus far, the script has unfolded almost exactly according to plan, with 8 of the ESPN coaches' preseason top 10 remaining there at the halfway point. Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, and Purdue occupy the top four spots and are all unbeaten to date. Not everything has gone to script, though, as a handful of teams have not played up to early expectations: UCLA, Butler, and Cal, to name a few. Among the overachieving surprises are #9 Syracuse (preseason #24), #10 Kansas State (unranked), and Reggie Theus' #14 New Mexico Lobos (unranked). Time, and an unrelenting conference slate, will tell whether these teams are built for March, or whether they simply enjoyed hot starts.

Now some conference previews....


ACC

The Atlantic Coast Conference is once again among the strongest in the NCAA. With 5 teams currently ranked, and three more lurking outside the top 25, coaches can be assured that there will be nary an easy win in league, especially on the road. This conference is notorious for its home underdog crowds terrorizing visiting top dogs.
Surprises: Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, Miami
Who could win: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State.
Miami, at 14-1, has an attractive record, but hasn't really played anyone of note in the preseason. The single blemish, a 1-point loss at Boston College, is telling. The conference looks like it belongs to a strong Duke team this year, unless North Carolina's young stars jell and mature. Keep watching, this league is one of the more entertaining views every January and February.


SEC

The story in the SEC is Kentucky's transcendent freshman point guard, John Wall. Wall, the probable #1 overall pick in next June's NBA Draft, leads his team with 17.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game, and makes it look easy. When his year at Kentucky ends, the comparisons to fellow one-and-doners Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony will be apt. The rest of the Kentucky squad ain't a bunch of slouches, either. Junior forward Patrick Patterson and freshman DeMarcus Cousins are an unstoppable duo in the post that is capable of matching up with anybody in the country.
Surprises: Mississippi
Who could win: Kentucky, Tennessee
There are a couple other decent/good teams in the SEC, but nobody can match Kentucky's talent and depth. I would be shocked if anybody besides Mississippi or Mississippi State (given the return of ineligible freshman Renardo Sidney) beats Kentucky in league.


Big East

The story in the Big East is the continued proliferation of Final Four quality teams at the top of the conference, and a slew of feisty competitors underneath. Annually considered to be the top conference in the nation, this year's edition boasts five of the top 13 teams in this week's coaches' poll. I don't know how everybody else feels, but I have an easy time getting these teams mixed up when they're taking turns beating each other up as a part of their impossibly difficult conference schedules. Uconn, Pitt, West Virginia, Villanova, Syracuse: they're all the same to me by the time conference tourneys roll through. That list doesn't even include formidable programs as Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Providence. Whew. Its improbable to keep track of who has beaten who and so forth. They're all good, and its a good bet that at least 8 of them will be going to the Big Dance.
Surprises: Syracuse (pleasant), Louisville (unpleasant)
Who could win: Villanova, West Virginia, Connecticut, Syracuse, Georgetown
That's 5 teams that could realistically win this conference. My guess is that none of them come out of league with less than 2 losses just because of how daunting the schedule is. If you're asking me for a prediction right now? I'd give you West Virginia or Syracuse. You don't want a spineless guess that picks two teams and want a definitive pick? I'll take Syracuse. Then I'll sit down on the couch and watch these heavyweights trade blows on ESPN for the next 9 weeks.


Big 12

This league boasts the country's top two squads by rank, Kansas and Texas. They have much in common: a fantastic freshman class, superstar upperclassmen, multiple years of tournament experience, and deep benches. They have something else in common in my opinion: they're both not as good as Kentucky. Still, these teams are undoubtedly strong enough to reach the Final Four. If I were to choose between the two, in early January, I'm taking Texas. The Longhorns' preseason was far tougher than the Jayhawks' was, and I think they'll be better for it. Texas hosts Kansas on February 8 in a game that could very well decide the Big 12 title. That game will feature lots of fireworks from experienced big men, explosive freshman, and sharpshooters.
Surprises: Kansas State, Oklahoma (bad)
Who could win: Kansas, Texas
Not a lot of depth in this conference, and really no one to challenge the two heavyweights for supremacy. It should be the Horns and Jayhawks playing nip and tuck until the Big 12 title game on Selection Sunday. My disclaimer is that Kansas State could crash the party with an upset of either team, because they look good.


Big 10

America's heartland boasts two of the nation's best, Purdue and 2009 runner-up Michigan State. Both teams win in true Big 10 fashion with physical, pound it out, half-court basketball. This conference looked a lot stronger before Ohio State's Naismith Award hopeful Evan Turner went out with a serious spine injury; the Buckeyes have gone just 3-3 since the injury. Purdue is the class of this league and a true favorite to reach Indy's Final Four. They are characterized by good chemistry, fundamentals, few mistakes, and experience, and would be an interesting matchup for any of the fast paced teams in the top 3.
Surprises: Wisconsin, Minnesota (unpleasant), Michigan (catastrophic)
Who could win: Purdue, Michigan State
Purdue certainly looks tougher than Michigan State. Then again, Tom Izzo's squad has 3 losses to Florida, at North Carolina, and against Texas in Dallas: nothing to scoff at.
The Big 10 may not be flashy, but coaches will not make the mistake of taking its teams lightly. The conference's March resume is a testament to that fact.


Pac-10

In the past, this conference has been falsely evaluated as weak. In those occurrences, at least one Pac-10 team has proceeded to defy the odds and make a run deep into the Dance. This year is different: everybody just stinks. Three consecutive Final Fours have led to a 6-8 for Ben Howland's UCLA Bruins, who appear to have been replaced in uniform by stunt doubles who don't play basketball. Cal and Washington were ranked 13 and 14 to begin the season, but had pedestrian preseason records. If they are the class of the league, then it truly is a weak league this year. USC, predicted to finish last in conference and be one of the more depressing teams in the country, has rallied from a poor start to win 8 in a row, including decisive upsets over UNLV and Tennessee. A promising, if untalented, squad Kevin O'Neill has propelled to a 10-4 overall and 2-0 conference mark. The Trojans would look like the consummate darkhorse to win the league were it not for the self-imposed sanctions handed down this week, which include a ban on postseason play for this season. Too bad, this conference needs a feel-good story in a bleak year.
Surprises: USC, Washington (poor)
Who could win: Cal, Washington
Cal's unimpressive 9-4 record is slightly misleading because the losses are to #7 Syracuse, then #15 Ohio State, #14 New Mexico, and #1 Kansas. So there's that. Ultimately it comes down to the fact that no one else can match up with these two squads, as flawed as they are. I think Washington has the edge with so many contributors returning from last year. As it stands, you may not see a Pac-10 team survive the first round of the tourney this year. Yikes. Let's move on.


Everybody else

Among the strong mid-major squads are: Gonzaga, Butler, Temple, BYU, and New Mexico. Gonzaga, Temple, and BYU are probably the strongest of the group based on tough schedules, losses to top-ranked teams, and upset wins like Temple's over Villanova. Butler, a perennial Horizon league power, looks a little bit down this year, losing a couple games that they wouldn't have lost in the past to teams like Minnesota and UAB. Still, the leadership and experience of Gordon Heyward, Matt Howard, and Shelvin Mack make Butler dangerous to ignore. New Mexico at 14-2 after its fresh loss to San Diego State, has an impressive ranking, but may be fool's gold. The Lobos reeled off 12 straight W's to open, but didn't exactly challenge themselves. Their best wins in that stretch, according to my estimation, were a home game with Cal and a road win at Texas A&M. None of the other 10 victories even approached the caliber of those two games. With losses now to Oral Roberts and SDSU, it is hard to peg New Mexico as a surefire Cinderella just yet.

Back to Gonzaga. Mark Few is a great coach and a savvy scheduler. He tries as often as possible to book a spot under the bright lights of the preseason's signature tournaments and primetime matchups. He knows he has to schedule tough games on the road or at neutral sites in the preseason because of the weakness of Gonzaga's conference, the West Coast Conference. Few already booked at Michigan State (loss, 75-71), Wisconsin (win), Cincinnati (win), Wake Forest (loss, 77-75), Duke (loss, 76-41), Oklahoma (win), at Illinois (win), with a road date at Memphis still to come. If you're counting, thats an 11-3 record, with losses at then #2 Michigan State, Wake, and #5 Duke. The Bulldogs are not afraid to challenge the big boys away from Spokane early, and it has repeatedly paid dividends for Few's team late in the season.

Feel prepared for conference play? Turn on ESPNHD and relax as the madness unfolds before your eyes. I'll be back before sometime before Selection Sunday to reset the happenings and offer revised predictions.

As always, your audience is greatly appreciated and does not go unnoticed.













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The NBA is Back!

On the eve of 2009 Opening Night in the NBA, a cliche and fresh optimism abounds in NBA locker rooms across the league. The failures, injuries, unfulfilled potentials, and infighting of last season are gone. Likewise, the title runs, shocking surprises, cohesion, and buzzer beaters are forgotten. Every team, no matter how elite or incompetent, begins 0-0 with a clean slate.

It is this optimism that gives Bulls fans hope for their young upstart, Spurs fans reassurance that Duncan and Popovich can STILL do their thing, that gives Laker fans confidence that Ron Artest is not an uncontrollable psychopath. It is this optimism that has Thunder fans raving about Kevin Durant and Co, and Clipper fans crossing their fingers that Blake Griffin can spark some motivation in Baron Davis to lead L.A.'s other team off the doormat and into the postseason. Legitimate claims for elite status can be made by no more than the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic, and Spurs, but every other team has a unique claim to the optimism that begs for just one chance to slay one of these giants come next April's playoffs. Potential sleepers and busts abound, they just don't know it yet. Let's start in the East.

1. Orlando Magic
Orlando made a splash in the offseason by letting Hedo Turkoglu go and trading for Vince Carter. Both were shrewd personnel moves for a team hungry to win now. Turkoglu clearly had his career year in 08-09, and has serious letdown potential with a big contract under his belt in Toronto. With the return of Jameer Nelson from a separated shoulder, coupled with the addition of Carter, the Magic will more than make up for Turkoglu's playmaking, ball-handling, and three-point shooting. Rashard Lewis is coming off a career year, and looks comfortable as well. This team is deep, talented, and now knows what it takes to win in the playoffs.


2. Cleveland Cavaliers
The depth of the LeBrons is astounding. Adding Anthony Parker and the Big Windchill while subtracting Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, and Wally I-won't-try-to-spell-his-last -name streamlined the roster. Still, questions remain about Cleveland's outside shooting, ability to guard Dwight Howard, and whether or not they can resign LeBron. Unless they miraculously coax him into signing an extension early in the year, this is sure to hang over the team all season long. Still, this team is so versatile and talented that it won't have a drastic effect.


3. Boston Celtics
The success of the 09 installment of the Celtics hinges directly on Kevin Garnett's knees. If he can stay healthy, the Celtics will win 60 games in the ever-improving Eastern Conference. The additions of Marquis Daniels and Rasheed Wallace make an already-solid bench even stronger. The window is almost shut for the Celtics with the age of the Big Three and the rise of Cleveland and Orlando. If they want another title, they need to get it this year.


4. Atlanta Hawks
This represents the next best team after the drop off from the top 3 Eastern teams. The Hawks have a great core in Al Horford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and the aging Mike Bibby. The addition of Jamal Crawford bolsters last year's weak bench. No question this team is competitive, but some doubt lies in how consistent they can be to finish in the top half of the conference.


5. Washington Wizards
Gilbert Arenas has been given a clean bill of health, the impact of which cannot be measured for this team. Antawn Jamison was just declared out 3-5 weeks with a shoulder injury that could linger. This obviously hurts the Wiz significantly, but their over achievement without Arenas the last two years tells me that this team is used to playing without its heavy hitters. Other guys step in and get the job done. Brendan Haywood returns from injury, and Randy Foye and Mike Miller will help greatly off the bench. Make no mistake, if Arenas stays healthy, this team could be the one that nobody wants to play late in the season.


6. Miami Heat
If they trade for Carlos Boozer by the December, bump this up around 3rd or 4th. The Heat have a good thing brewing on South Beach. Dwyane Wade in a contract year = fantasy owner's dream. Mario Chalmers exceeded all expectations last season in starting all 82 games as a rookie and collecting 2 steals a game. His development will be crucial to alleviating some of the pressure on Wade. Michael Beasley has enticing potential at the small forward, if he can get his personal life together. Jermaine O'Neal is still an All-Star caliber player when healthy, and Udonis Haslem's 10 and 8 line is as dependable as a beautiful Florida sunset. Miami is another one of those teams you don't want to play come playoff time because Wade is transcendent and capable of taking over a whole series.


7. Chicago Bulls
This upstart squad might be the most fun to watch in the East. Derrick Rose looks like the next superstar point guard. Joakim Noah, Ty Thomas, James Johnson, and Taj Gibson form an extremely athletic and versatile frontcourt. John Salmons continued to blossom after coming over from the Kings at the deadline, and Luol Deng is a very productive scorer when healthy. The Bulls must learn from last year's epic playoff series with the Celtics if they want to win in the top-heavy East. One thing is for sure, they won't sneak up on anybody this season.


8. Charlotte Bobcats
I think this team is ready to make the jump. The core of Gerald Wallace, Ray Felton, Boris Diaw, D.J. Augustin, and the newly-arrived Tyson Chandler has unexpected overachiever written all over it. A lot of teams will have trouble matching up with the emergent Wallace, who has steadily gotten better for 3 years running and is an elite small forward. Augustin is electrifying off the bench, and Diaw is among the most versatile players in the NBA. What is any preview without a shamelessly bold prediction, right? Right?


9. Philadelphia 76ers
There is a lot to like about this team, but also plenty to dislike. Will Elton Brand make a strong return? More importantly, will he fit with this up-and-down style offense? Does Sam Dalembert like playing basketball? How will Lou Williams handle stepping into a starting role on a team with high expectations? This team is the hardest to predict in the East: as far as I'm concerned, they could finish as high as 6th, or miss the playoffs altogether. Much depends on Brand's bounce back from injury.


10. Toronto Raptors
11. New York Knicks
12. Indiana Pacers
13. Detroit Pistons
14. New Jersey Nets



15. Milwaukee Bucks
This will not be a happy year for Bucks fans.


Western Conference


1. Los Angeles Lakers
The Champs are loaded once again, and may have gotten even better with replacement of Trevor Ariza by the mercurial Ron Artest. If Artest can fill his role and keep his ego down, Kobe's hunger to reach Jordan's 6 titles will carry this team. The return of a healthy and adapted Andrew Bynum will be invaluable to a team that struggles on the glass at times and has defensive lapses. This team has all the pieces and as good a chance as anybody to play deep into June.


2. San Antonio Spurs
It's scary when the Spurs, who are already an elite team, are considered to have improved themselves more than any other team in the offseason. The additions of Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, and DeJuan Blair strengthen an already discplined, tough, and cohesive squad. Tim Duncan is clearly declining, but still maintains his typical Hall of Fame caliber performance with unmatched consistency. Manu Ginobili is finally healthy, which makes a bigger difference than we realize. Tony Parker is as good as any point guard in the league at running his team's system. Make no mistake, the Spurs are as dangerous as they've ever been, and will give the Lakers a run for their money late in the playoffs.


3. Portland Trail Blazers
This team is full of some of the best young players in the league. Brandon Roy has developed into one of the 10 most valuable players to his team across the league. He continues to add something to his game every offseason that makes him a better overall player. LaMarcus Aldridge is sure to have a letdown season since signing his lavish extension late last week. NBA players are so predictably fickle when they mail in a season after cashing in. The real wild card in Portland is Greg Oden. So many question surround him: How good can he be? How will his presence affect the great chemistry his teammates have built over the last 2 seasons? Does he REALLY make them better? Can he average more blocked shots per game than injuries sustained? What will he do to top this ? Many "experts" are laying the pavement for a Blazer stinker this year, but I think they're going to build on last year.


4. Dallas Mavericks
The difference between this year's Mavs and Mavs of recent years? Not much. They picked up Shawn Marion, who, in the right environment, has played at an All-Star level. Dirk and J-Kidd just keep on ticking, and Jason Terry is about as good of a role player as you will find anywhere. Just a hunch with this team, they're deeper and seem more focused than ever before.


5. Utah Jazz
I don't like the distraction that Carlos Boozer creates for this team. In Salt Lake City, they play in an especially insulated environment and they're the only show in town. Who knows how this whole thing affects Paul Millsap now that he has his money. Does his ego shoot up like his salary does, leading him to demand a starting spot or a trade? Does Boozer come back strong from injury? The Jazz desperately need a return to All-Star status for Boozer if they hope to find a trade partner for him. Once Boozer leaves, look out for this team. They're solid 1-5 and very deep off the bench. Ronnie Brewer could give this team a HUGE boost if he can learn to shoot from the wing and develop a little knack for scoring when other guys are getting keyed on. Deron Williams is masterful, and continues his campaign to be the best point guard in the league in leading the Jazz to a league-best record at home.


6. Phoenix Suns
Fun-N-Gun is back. This offensive system is ageproof. You'll see it in Steve Nash and Grant Hill this year; it will look as if they're getting younger. I love everything about this team returned to its natural habitat. The Big Cactus experiment was doomed from the beginning and an inherent contradiction to the system. It was clear how they changed to accommodate him at Amare Stoudemire's expense. Nash is happy now that he has his extension and will lead this team back to the Excitement Scale mountaintop.


7. New Orleans Hornets
I don't want to talk much about the Hornets because, let's be honest, they're boring. The only thing keeping this team from a top-5 pick in the 2010 Draft is Chris Paul. The over/under on how many games his team plays before Byron Scott gets fired is 23.5. I dare you to take the over.


t8.Los Angeles Clippers
Even Mike Dunleavy can't keep this uber-talented team out of the postseason this year. A motivated and healthy Baron Davis is still a top-4 point guard in the league. Rumor has it that he is motivated and he is healthy. Blake Griffin is going to be fantastic down the road, and will contribute immediately. Gone are the days of oppression under Zach Randolph. Chris Kaman has finally been sent to the bench. Eric Gordon will be spurred on by Griffin while he learns the nuances of the back court with Davis. This team might clock in just under Phoenix on the Excitement Scale this year. LOOK OUT.


t8. Denver Nuggets
You know how there's the Super Bowl Hangover, when the Super Bowl loser sucks the next year? Well, we need a Coors Light-sponsored Western Conference Finals Hangover for the Nuggets. They were good, don't get me wrong. But how good were they? They have about the 7th most impressive roster in the West, and maybe Chauncey Billups didn't make that much of a difference. Is it possible that they overachieved, plain and simple? Either way, repeating last year's success would be quite a feat this season, especially with the ultra-competitive Northwest Division they play in.


10. Oklahoma City Thunder
This. Team. Is. Awesome. In 2 years, they'll have the potential to be a perennial top-5 team in the West. But we're talking about now. The reality is that this team is unfathomably young, constructed of almost entirely the draft picks of the last 3 years. Kudos to the front office for making great draft picks, even amidst the relocation and surrounding controversy. Kevin Durant is about to rocket into the stratosphere of the NBA elite, a place that he will occupy for the next 10 years. Russ Westbrook is a blur. If he can curb his erratic ball handling and shoot the ball better, look out for an under the radar All-Star selection. There will be no more compelling experiment to watch than this one all year long.


11. Golden State Warriors
12. Houston Rockets
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Memphis Grizzlies
15. Minnesota Timberwolves


Eastern Semifinals: Orlando over Washington, Boston over Cleveland
Western Semifinals: LA Lakers over Utah, San Antonio over Portland


Eastern Finals: Orlando over Boston
Western Finals: LA Lakers over San Antonio

NBA Finals: LA Lakers over Orlando
Predictable, I know, but these are the clear-cut best teams in their respective conferences, and it would be unwise to pick against either one. So we're headed for a rematch. And back-to-back titles for the Lakers.

The league could quite possibly have its highest level of parity right now since the calendar flipped 2000. Sit back, enjoy the surprises, relish in your fantasy squad's success, and prepare yourself for the marathon that is the NBA playoffs.
















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The Karma Bet of 2009

The Karma Bet applies to people in sports who simply get what they deserve after making a big decision about his or her career. The Karma Bet sounds like it can only be applied negatively, but it does have some positive examples historically and can go either way. This summer's biggest Karma Bet, however, does not bode well for its recipient. Trevor Ariza, come on down!

Freshly signed Houston Rockets forward Trevor Ariza has to be kicking himself right now, after last week's news that superstar teammate Yao Ming will miss the entire 2009-10 season after undergoing surgery on his left foot for the 3rd time. Less than a month after winning his first NBA title with his hometown LA Lakers, Ariza was a highly coveted free agent, and was due to cash in on some stark improvement to his game.

Everyone assumed that the Lakers had the inside lane to re-sign Ariza, and offered him the mid-level salary exception worth $5.8 million per year over 5 years. Ariza was underwhelmed by the organization's offer, feeling like he earned more money with his clutch performance throughout the Laker playoff run. So Ariza spurned the Lakers and held out for more money from another team. The thing is, he signed with the Rockets for less than $1 million more per season than LA was offering.

I could see this coming from Ariza. Up until this offseason, he was the consummate shut-up, play hard, and fill your role player. He did this immaculately for the Lakers for the better part of 2 seasons, and was vital to the 2009 title. Apparently, a little success went to his head, and a typically NBA ego was born. Characteristic of this ego is an aversion to common sense. "Absolutely, I'll squeeze my salary cap-strapped hometown World Champion team for more money, wait a few days for them to cave in and offer more, change my mind, and then sign with the team that is clearly not as good as my old team for the same amount. That makes perfect sense." Ariza should fire his agent and represent himself from now on.

The Karma has kicked in for Ariza, and he is getting what he deserves for being greedy and egotistical. Yao Ming is out for the season and may have a career-ending injury. Tracy McGrady is injury-prone, mentally brittle, and can't win a meaningful game or series. Ron Artest bolted Houston and switched places with Ariza on a stacked Laker roster. Ariza has has opted for a pot roast despite being offered filet mignon at the same price. Now, he'll toil in Houston as this summer's victim of Karma.

Memo to Lamar Odom (and agent Jeff Schwartz): beware the tale of Trevor Ariza, and avoid doing the EXACT SAME THING.
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NBA Draft Reflections/Analysis/Thoughts/Predictions



I can't wait to talk about Thursday's NBA Draft. I love the draft because it's not an isolated event on the NBA calendar which allows teams to add a good prospect from college and see how he fits into their team. The draft is the day that teams use as a springboard to do a variety of things: initiate a franchise makeover, make significant moves to improve quickly, set up for the future by stockpiling picks, or carefully crafted combinations of any of these. We've seen doormat morph into championship contender overnight with the Boston Celtics in 2007, and we've seen teams quietly murder their own franchises with continual poor drafting, like the LA Clippers for the last 15 years. Any way you slice it, the draft makes for great entertainment as teams engage in the most activity during this time than at any other point in the season.

Helpful and potentially time-saving note: If you don't want to read about Ricky Rubio, stop reading now. It's alright.

Out of many interesting plotlines, developments, trades, and surprises of the 2009 Draft, the guy above (18 year old Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio, not David Stern) is the one I'm most interested in. Heralded as the next Pete Maravich, a ludicrous comparison by all accounts, Rubio generated more buzz than anyone coming into the draft with his prodigious speed, supernatural court awareness, and masterful vision and passing. The highlights, though sparse, clearly show Rubio is on a different level of talent from Europe's top players. I guess that's what can happen when you turn pro at age 14.

Before I get humming, I should provide the novice sports enthusiast with a draft recap.

The big story for me is not that Rubio was drafted: it was a foregone conclusion he would be taken somewhere in the top handful of players. The surprise is that two teams, in true Atlanta Hawks passing on Chris Paul fashion, needing a point guard and fun talent to watch, passed on Rubio. Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings, I'm looking at you. At #3, OKC had the chance to take Rubio and let him run with Kevin Durant, Russ Westbrook, and Jeff Green. I can't really fault them for the James Harden pick because he fills a need and is a good character guy, but I'm so disappointed that the most exciting player in this draft didn't get put on the potentially most exciting team to watch for next year when the possibility was there. I mean, is there anything more fun to watch than Rubio's once-in-a-generation passing talent creating flashy attempts for Durant and Westbrook? I'm not sure there is. Sacramento's pick is indefensible. Their guy, Tyreke Evans, stinks. He went to college for one year, has a long way to go in maturity, can't shoot, and dominates the ball. These are not the things you want to characterize your new franchise point guard on a crappy team. DID THEY NOT KNOW RICKY RUBIO WAS AVAILABLE??? There are several thought provoking questions you could ask the Sacramento brass, but the simplest and most direct is: Do you really think that Tyreke Evans is better than Ricky Rubio for the next 10 years? I'm not sure they would answer you honestly. All I know is that in 2014, OKC and SAC will be throwing china at the wall for passing on Rubio in 2009 like Atlanta is now for passing on Chris Paul 4 years ago.

The team that DID get Rubio at #5 was the Minnesota Timberwolves, who feel like a homeless man finding a bag carrying $10 million in unmarked bills in a dumpster. This is that big of a shock to them and to me, but apparently not to a number of brainless NBA GMs. After lucking into Rubio, Minnesota must have felt great having traded up earlier to own the #6 pick. So with their second pick in a row and one of their gaping holes filled, Minnesota decided to make sure that point guard hole was extra filled by drafting another one, Syracuse's Jonny Flynn. What??????? We later learned that Minnesota wants to play Rubio and Flynn (neither of which can shoot) at the same time, with Flynn--at 5' 11"-- running the wing. Mind boggling. To top it off later, Minnesota drafted a THIRD point at #18 in Ty Lawson. So I guess they're going to trot 3 point guards out there. Awesome. To be fair, Minnesota traded Lawson to Denver later in the night. Look for more post-action rumors about Flynn or Rubio being traded because this just doesn't make sense. Minnesota is up to something...I just don't know what it is yet.

I will now write the rest of this post in lists because I feel the urge to categorize, and because you're getting tired of reading

Guys who suck and probably got drafted too high
1. Hasheem Thabeet at #2-soft, raw, more weaknesses than strengths..... the #2 pick?
2. Tyreke Evans at #4-who is he? what's he done that is good?
3. Tyler Hansbrough at #13-fools gold, too small and unathletic to play in the post
4. Austin Daye at #15-should be a top 10 pick in the 2010 Draft. Oh, he got drafted in 2009?

Guys who will be valuable contributors and will make everyone who passed feel shame
1. Eric Maynor at #20- 4 year true point guard in college, mature, polished, no hype
2. DeJuan Blair at #37- worries about having no ACLs scared everyone off. Top 12 talent
3. Derrick Brown at #40- underrated out of Xavier, versatile and very athletic
4. Chase Budinger at #44- for no other reason than being drafted so late. Super athletic; formerly regarded as a lottery pick before struggling at end of college career

Teams who should feel proud of their draft results
1. San Antonio Spurs: Blair falling to them is very fortunate; Jack McClinton late in the 2nd round is underrated and a great value pick who might contribute right away. Another masterful job picking deep in the 2nd round by the Spurs.
2. Minnesota: landing Rubio at 5, stockpiling future picks by trading Lawson are enough to vault them here.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Lucking into top 7 talent Jrue Holiday at #17 was great for Philly, who get a potential franchise point guard mid first round.
4. Portland Trailblazers: with 4 picks, Portland solidified its interior with Dante Cunningham and bruiser Jon Brockman, who was traded for a serviceable Jeff Pendergraph, both proven and dependable players. Patrick Mills could be the steal of this draft at 55. He would have been a top 10 pick if he came out in 2010.
5. Chicago Bulls: not because of who they drafted at what spot, but because they knew their holes and tried to fill them. James Johnson and Taj Gibson could both significantly bolster a frontline that has been in limbo for years and was the glaring weakness of a surging team at the end of 2009.
6. Orlando Magic: no picks in the draft, but trading for Vince Carter at 30 cents on the dollar on the eve of the draft was a bigger help than any player from this draft can offer.

Teams who did not draft well
1. Memphis Grizzlies: should have taken someone better than Thabeet. You don't want your #2 overall pick to be a 5 year project who offers zero guarantees of production.
2. Sacramento Kings: for drafting Evans, passing on Rubio, and having absolutely no direction as a franchise.
3. Detroit Pistons: with several good guards still available, including Jrue Holiday, they rolled the dice on Daye, who is several years away from being an NBA body and is virtually a taller Tayshaun Prince. With a couple of potentially explosive players left in the 2nd round, they took a college role player who never wowed anyone in DaJuan Summers.

Overall, there were no REALLY great or REALLY poor picks in this draft, but common sense seems to be absent from NBA front offices. Just because Hasheem Thabeet is considered one of the best players in this year's class does not mean he will be any good for your team, especially so high in the draft. Same goes for Ty Evans. These might be completely wasted picks in 3 years if they don't pan out well. The disparity in talent between pick 1 and pick 60 might be the smallest its been in any draft this decade. Blake Griffin is clearly the cream of the crop this year, but will not be mistaken for a franchise player anytime soon.

Things to keep an eye on as free agency opens July 1
1. Potential blockbuster trades: Suns-Warriors talk of Amare Stoudemire, Ricky Rubio rumored trade to the Knicks
2. Notable Free Agents: Jason Kidd, Lamar Odom, Chris Andersen, Allen Iverson, Trevor Ariza, Rasheed Wallace, Ron Artest, Charlie Villanueva, David Lee, Hedo Turkoglu, Paul Millsap, and Carlos Boozer

Stay tuned as the NBA summer heats up, there will certainly be more positioning as teams desperately look to cut costs for the Summer of 2010 and the economy.
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The NBA: Not Quite Ready for Vacation



I'm going to make a fully shameless plug for my buddy's up and coming blog in the headline of my own blog post. If you consume sports, you'll enjoy the perspective of a division 1 college athlete as he shares his thoughts from that point of view. He linked to me in his opening post, so I figured I'd return the favor. Besides, he's been BEGGING me to bounce some of my robust readership over to him. I'm only kidding.

On to the good stuff. I have to admit that I was sad the NBA was going away after the Finals ended. I also have to admit that I moved on to the next in-season sports just like most people did. I knew that the draft was this Thursday and that I'd most likely watch and be captivated for 3 days after, but I was not anticipating the headlines that arose on Tuesday.

News of a major trade (and some rumored major trades) took me by surprise, as the Milwaukee Bucks sent Richard Jefferson to the San Antonio Spurs for a refurbished bus, a box of deflated basketballs, and a flat screen. Oh wait, those things would have actually helped the Bucks. They really acquired Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, and Kurt Thomas from the Spurs in what is clearly a salary dump in preparation for the free agent bonanza of 2010.

The deal scares me as a Laker fan because it reflects an urgency in the Spurs that will bring them back into the West's elite for the next 1-3 years. The Spurs are the only team out West that truly can hang with the Lakers as presently constituted. The deal itself was never rumored before it was reported, and seemingly came out of nowhere.

On the rumor front, a less likely deal involving 3 players from the Pistons and the Celtics' Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo has surfaced. Detroit appears to have no interest in dealing its core for Rondo and/or Allen, so this seems to be nothing more than empty rumor.

That's all we have so far, but the NBA Draft is known to generate trade buzz earlier in the week every year, so teams might not be done throwing around blockbuster trade proposals. And if not, we've already had 1 blockbuster to tide us over until the inevitable draft day trades and surprise draft picks. With names like Blake Griffin, Ricky Rubio, James Harden, Jrue Holiday, and Stephen Curry, the NBA Draft is compelling television.

Stay tuned, I know I will.

P.S.

I will probably recap the draft and any trades/surprise moves that are made and offer some analysis heading into the free agent season.
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The Big Needy



This is a seemingly affable photo of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant from a different lifetime. The former teammates won 3 rings together from 2000-2002 and seemed like the best of friends. Then, when the Lakers lost to the Detroit Pistons in the 2004 NBA Finals, things went bad. Shaq was getting pushed out the door and he blamed Kobe. Kobe wanted to have a team to himself. Coach Phil Jackson sided with Shaq and said Kobe was uncoachable. There was much he-said she-said involved, but regardless of who did what, there was a sizable rift created between the former comrades.

Throughout the last 5 years, Shaq and Kobe have had their inevitable meanings on the court and exchanged awkward and superficial greetings. Shaq repeatedly denied any hard feelings toward Kobe, claiming that he indeed likes his former sidekick and wishes the best for him. Kobe has been less diplomatic than the Diesel/Aristotle/Cactus is, constantly dodging the topic of his relationship with Shaq.

There was no mention of it, but both men raced to be the first to win a title without the other, wanting to bad to prove that neither needs each other to reach the mountaintop. Shaq accomplished his 4th ring first, riding Dwyane Wade and some terrific refs to the 2006 championship. He quietly and passively held this over Kobe's head in the media, knowing that it would eat Kobe alive. Indeed, Kobe stewed for 3 years, driven by his obsession to prove his indepedence from Shaq.

On the EXACT DAY that Kobe was to win his 4th ring, and first without Shaq, guess who just couldn't stay away? Yep, the Big Needy. Just hours before the Lakers took the floor for Game 5 against the Magic, news broke all over the wires that the Cleveland Cavaliers were in talks to trade for Shaq. The timing was all too convenient and should not be ignored. Whether Shaq is responsible for the newsbreaking or not, I think its despicable that he can't ever let Kobe have his moment without Shaq's shadow looming over him. He pops his lovable and humorous easygoing persona up just at the right time so that everyone fixates on him, which is exactly what he purposes to do.

Both Shaquille and Kobe are legends indepedent of each other. We all recognize their talents and merits individually. Now that both have won a 4th title, maybe they'll both finally realize they don't need each other, like the rest of us did long ago.
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Moments That Make or Break A Career



This picture might tell the story of how Orlando Magic guard Courtney Lee's career ended.

In a tie game with under a second remaining and the ball inbounded at half court in Game 2, coach Stan Van Gundy drew up a brilliant back door lob to Lee. Lee skied toward the rim, all alone, just needing catch the ball and lay it softly off the glass. Lee's momentum carried him upward and away from the basket, but his catch was clean. He laid it off the glass.......and missed.

The first thing I thought when I saw Lee after the play was I bet he's killing himself right now. He's going to kick himself for weeks, months, maybe years for missing that layup. It was by no means an easy play, but it was neither improbably converted. Nobody can blame him for missing, but everybody (aside from Laker fans) wishes he would have made it.

Just look at his picture right after the miss
. Doesn't that tell the whole story? Can't you see this guy plunging into the depths of NBA mediocrity for years to come? There come moments in athlete's careers that have the potential to make or break that player's performance forever. Its not physical, its mental. It doesn't happen to every athlete. This play in Game 2 would have swung the NBA Finals dramatically, and I can foresee the talented, promising rookie Courtney Lee never being the same.

Where else has this happened in sports recently? How about then-Houston Astros closer Brad Lidge giving up an absolute rocket to Albert Pujols with 2 outs in Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS
? His Astros went on to win the series and clinch their first World Series berth, but Lidge was never the same after. In Game 2 of the World Series, though, Lidge surrendered a walk off homer to Scott Podsednik which gave the White Sox a 2-0 series lead on their way to sweeping Houston. A few demotions to Triple AAA and a couple injuries later, Lidge signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, enjoying a perfect (literally) 2008 season. Lidge has again been a disaster in 2009 and never realized his limitless potential; he owes it all to the Pujols home run in 2005.

How about Eli Manning's moment in the Super Bowl XLII (42)? Eli's legend had built throughout the playoffs as he led his New York Giants to 3 straight road wins to secure the NFC Championship and a matchup with the undefeated New England Patriots. Manning's make or break moment came at the 1:14 mark in the 4th quarter, trailing 14-10 with a 3rd and 5. Manning was nearly sacked on a broken play, escaped the pocket and hurled a throw off his back foot to seldom-targeted receiver David Tyree, who made an equally incredible catch for a 32 yard gain. Manning then tossed a beautiful Super Bowl clinching TD pass to Plaxico Burress to ruin the Patriots bid for a perfect season. Manning's moment transformed him from a hyped but average quarterback into a surefire franchise player made from the stuff of legend by his Super Bowl drive. Manning has not been the same since, but in a good way.

There are many other examples of the make or break moment in sports. These are just a few which highlight the power of psychology in regard to the professional athlete and show that the mental part of the game is equally--perhaps more--important to physical. The mental is what separates Michael Jordan from Darius Miles or Mookie Blaylock, not the athletic talent. Is there really that much talent separating Jerry Rice from Derrick Mason or Peerless Price? This is part of what makes sports so great and unpredictable: the guy with the most talent doesn't always win.

As for Courtney Lee, I hope I didn't jinx him. Heaven forbid he reads my blog and can never get my speculation out of his head. I think he's a fantastic player with tons of talent and a good mental makeup. I hope he goes on to have a prosperous career, but time will tell whether or not his layup in Game 2 was a make or break moment in his NBA life.
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The Game I Can't Forget

My intention for this blog is to talk about trends and issues in sports, not news stories. I aim to stay away from recapping regular season games because that seems to represent a very narrow scope and I want to focus on the big picture instead.

That said, I have to reset my take on Game 4 of the NBA Finals last night. It was fantastic; one of the top 5 basketball games I have ever seen, college or pro. It had everything: shot for shot, back and forth action, cold blooded clutch shots, bad coaching, missed calls, and a few iconic moments provided by the forgotten Derek Fisher.
I have to concede that I have been leading the mob for Fisher's head this entire postseason after he went into a coma for the first 12 games. I pleaded for one of his teammates to take a lead pipe to the back of his head and drag him into a corner of the locker room where no one could find him. Fish made me and countless viewers feel like an idiot last night with his unbelievable shooting in crunch time. I forgot that he's been through thick and thin with this Laker team and that even though he has declined steadily this season, he is a 3-time indispensible champion.

This game had Kobe Bryant's unrivaled competitive drive forcing shots in an effort to beat the Magic by himself. On a side note, his postgame interview cooled me down because he was visibly upset with himself for his horrendous play down the stretch. I covered Kobe extensively in my previous post, but he brought his eyes up just in time to allow his teammates to shoulder some of the load in escaping Game 4.

This game had strategic paralysis by Stan Van Gundy. Personally, I really like SVG; he's candid, honest, bold, and I think he and GM Otis Smith have done a great job assembling this squad. However, the Magic's epic Game 4 choke job rests largely on him. He inexplicably played Jameer Nelson over the more cohesive Rafer Alston for the entire 4th quarter and OT when Nelson had repeatedly interrupted team chemistry early in the series. With a 3 point lead and 10.8 seconds in regulation, he opted to not put Fisher on the line for two free throws. Fisher canned that epic 3 over Nelson to tie the game and the Magic never recovered.

This game featured a massive choke by the Magic mixed with more ... officiating. (Still haven't found the right word to describe it). The Magic missed more free throws than the Lakers made, which highlights the fusion of Orlando's and the refs failures. In one 17 minute period, the Magic attempted 18 free throws. The Lakers? Zero. Hedo Turkoglu, an 83% to this point in the season, missed 3 out of 4 in the last five minutes of regulation; not to mention Dwight Howard's pair of missed freebies with that three point lead in the final minute. Aside from the free throw disparity, the officials made some repulsive calls against the Lakers (like Derek Fisher's foul on Dwight Howard when Howard had just put Pau Gasol on the floor with a forearm shiver to the lower back on a rebound).

This game had Trevor Ariza's ironic destruction of the team that traded him to the Lakers in 2007 in one of the underrated grand theft trades in recent years. With the Lakers coming out of halftime trailing by 10, Ariza rattled off a 13 point third quarter to help the Lakers to a stunning 16 quarter. His ice-cold, shot-clock-winding-down 3 from the top of the key with 2:53 left in the 4th quarter instantly erased Orlando's momentum and its 3 point lead. He had a critical hustle play late in OT on an offensive rebound that helped the Lakers retain possession and the lead.
Ariza finished with 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 6,321 intangibles in Game 4 and continued to do all the thankless things that no other Laker is willing to do while never opening his mouth, calling for the ball, or demanding a contract extension. Between Game 4 and a few other fantastic performances, Trevor Ariza earned himself a boatload of money in free agency this summer.

Finally, this game had some great unintentional comedy that could only be noticed with a DVR tuner. Right before Stan Van went into a momentary coma with 10.8 left in the 4th quarter, ABC cut to a shot of its stellar broadcast team to discuss strategy out of the timeout. Right behind them in the first row were the typical fans screaming and waving into the camera. One woman, clearly intoxicated, leaned forward to get into the picture and took a fat digger. She just completely missed her seat and went into a heap on the floor. After laying there stunned for a second, she was helped to her feet by the large man next to her. My crew rewound it 3 times. Pure gold.

Game 4 had everything, which is why I can't stop playing it over in my head. On one hand, it was a colossal choke by an Orlando team that doesn't look quite ready yet. On the other hand, a previously gutless Laker team overcame massive disadvantages in free throws and general referee incompetence to grind out Game 4. They earned the win. This series is incredible because two shots have the Lakers up 3-1 when they could just as easily be down 3-1. ABC has to be drooling over the ratings numbers for this series.

On the heels of incredible overtime Games 2 and 4, I can only sit back and wish for another rollercoaster ride in Game 5.
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The Reemergence of an Unwanted Guest


As a die hard Laker fan, watching Thursday night's Game 4 of the NBA Finals was like a nightmare timestamped 2005-2006. Translation: It was Kobe Bryant trying to score as many points as possible, going 1 on 5, taking ill-advised shots, and displaying a deep mistrust for anyone else wearing a Laker jersey.

This is such a disconcerting scenario because back when Kobe was playing lone ranger, the Lakers stunk. It is no small wonder to me that in the finest season of Kobe's illustrious career and one of the best individual seasons of all-time, his team finished with a pedestrian 45-37 record and a first round playoff exit. In fact, two of Bryant's 3 highest single-season scoring averages coincide with the worst Laker win-loss records of his Laker tenure. It is clear that in the times Kobe tempers his own shot volume and involves his teammates, the Lakers experience significantly more success. The old adage proves true with the Black Mamba: less is more.

The 07-08 and 08-09 seasons are among the most successful in the history of the NBA's most storied franchise. Granted, Kobe has had a little more to work with in the Laker talent pool; he hasn't felt the need to take on an entire opponent by himself to gain victory. The 2007-2008 season saw the emergence of the league's deepest and most potent bench with the significant improvements of Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Ronny Turiaf, and Luke Walton. This was due in no small part to Kobe's decision to do more facilitating and to get his teammates more involved in the action. Not surprisingly, the Lakers, easily the most talented team in the West, marched into the NBA Finals for the first time in 4 seasons.

2008-2009 saw Bryant's scoring average drop almost a full point per game from the season before. Predictably, the Lakers increased their win total by 8, winning a remarkable 65 for the year. Once again, the Lakers were expected to roll through the West on their way to a repeat appearance in the NBA Finals.

At some point during the playoffs, though, something changed with this team. The development of Farmar and Vujacic stunted. Player confidence dried up. Four Lakers started standing around on the perimeter spectating, a la 2006. The Kobe of 2007-2009: team-centered, friendly, mature, and encouraging reverted to 2005-2006 form: superior, aloof, condescending, visibly arrogant, and mistrusting. The Lakers proceeded to struggle past a depleted Houston Rockets team in 7 games, then overcome a brutally competitive and taxing series against the Denver Nuggets in the Western Finals. Through it all, Bryant's self-reliance began rearing its ugly head again.

The Finals against the Orlando Magic have stirred in me the a desire to rip my hair out and throw things at my TV. This is true for a few reasons: foremostly, the officiating continues to be..... Just ..... (there is not a word to accurately capture how bad the refs have been in Games 2-4). Secondarily, Bryant's shot selection and reversion to old form. He has shot a remarkably poor percentage from the field in this series, taking 34 of the team's 89 shots in Game 1, 22 of 78 in Game 2, 25 of 78 in Game 3, and 31 of 91 in Game 4 for a series FG% of 43.6. This isn't usually a low number, but given the volume of shots Bryant has taken, it significantly brings down the rest of the team's FG%.

Kobe's display of uber-competitive desire to win a fourth title has caused him to abandon his teammates yet again. The Lakers have not suffered because of it in this series, however, as they possess a commanding 3-1 lead. Were it not for just a handful of fortunate breaks, the Lakers could easily be on the business end of 3-1, due in no small part to Kobe Bryant's play.

The Lakers are going to win the series and be crowned NBA Champions. There's little doubt that Orlando can overcome their deficit to win 3 in a row. However, the Lakers will have no chance to repeat and defend their title in 2010 with Kobe 2006. As a Laker fan I express great disappointment and discouragement that Kobe Bryant, as legendary a player as he may be, never changed his ways and that his mistrust of everyone else will always come through when the going gets tough for the Los Angeles Lakers.
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A Bleak Summer for College Sports

The NCAA is really, really busy right now.

News of several major rules violations in college football and basketball have flooded news cycles in recent weeks as the NCAA's investigators have reached their career primes. The ongoing University of Southern California football investigation was merged with the NCAA's probe into indiscretions in the school's basketball program; Memphis' basketball launched an investigation into fraudulent SAT scores for a former superstar as coach John Calipari jumped ship for Kentucky; University of Tennessee football coach Lane Kiffin has been accused of a minor recruiting violation for each of the 6 months he's been on the job; and news of "improper benefits" to University of Alabama football players hit the news wires Thursday.

I'm not here to discuss each of the cases individually, but rather address a bigger issue: that in this day it seems like all the good teams are bending and breaking NCAA rules and that without doing so, a program can't sustain any kind of success. In short, to be good, you have to cheat.

(You can read about USC here and more recently here, Memphis basketball here, Tennessee football here, and Alabama football here).

Now, Alabama's trouble really has nothing to do with athletics and does not involve a coaching staff trying to gain an unfair advantage as is the case with the other violations. It does, however, shed light on the character of today's college athlete. Entitlement, lawlessness, superior, prideful. These are some of the adjectives I would use to characterize many of the student-athlete population. The same goes for the coaches who put on a pretty face for the media and public relations departments. I don't buy the facades these men put on.

In February of this year, I found myself buying into the facade that then USC basketball coach Tim Floyd put on. I had access to a team practice one day and for the 15 minutes I was present, Mr. Floyd was a different guy than the one you see in press conferences and during games.
His voice was hoarse from screaming choice words at his players and his encouragements were non-existent. Coupling my observations with this spring's revelations into the recruitment of former Trojan star O.J. Mayo, I was forced to abandon my perception of Floyd as the hard working, uplifting, gritty, and clean coach that he plays on TV and his teams reflect with their play.

These stories represent only the most serious of allegations. There are hundreds, maybe thousands, of minor indiscretions that are never publicized and are dealt with internally by the universities or by the NCAA. Coaches and players are cutting corners more than ever to gain illegal advantages, the publication of which has caused me to descend into a very skeptical and cynical mindset toward college sports. I love college football and basketball, but how can I fully enjoy and endorse them when I'm aware of such immoral and unethical behavior?
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