College Basketball Conference Preview
As college football wraps up its season with a slate of magnificently boring and pointless bowl games, the college basketball conference season is just firing up. The league schedule in college hoops is among the most riveting portions of any season in any sport. The turf wars between teams that hate each other, the familiarity that each team has with its leaguemates' scheme and personnel, and the passion of prideful student sections are just a few of the aspects that add to the intensity of this part of the season. At this point, most coaches know what they've got to work with, now its time to adjust to their players, game plan, and improve on the mistakes of the preseason.
The script entering each season is that the favorites do not lose to the big underdogs; 2008's Final Four was the first in history to feature all four #1 seeds. This trend continued into last year, with no team below a 3 seed reaching the Final Four. This is how the big dance is set up, and it plays out in recruiting the same way. Thus far, the script has unfolded almost exactly according to plan, with 8 of the ESPN coaches' preseason top 10 remaining there at the halfway point. Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, and Purdue occupy the top four spots and are all unbeaten to date. Not everything has gone to script, though, as a handful of teams have not played up to early expectations: UCLA, Butler, and Cal, to name a few. Among the overachieving surprises are #9 Syracuse (preseason #24), #10 Kansas State (unranked), and Reggie Theus' #14 New Mexico Lobos (unranked). Time, and an unrelenting conference slate, will tell whether these teams are built for March, or whether they simply enjoyed hot starts.
Now some conference previews....
The Atlantic Coast Conference is once again among the strongest in the NCAA. With 5 teams currently ranked, and three more lurking outside the top 25, coaches can be assured that there will be nary an easy win in league, especially on the road. This conference is notorious for its home underdog crowds terrorizing visiting top dogs.
Surprises: Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, Miami
Who could win: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State.
Miami, at 14-1, has an attractive record, but hasn't really played anyone of note in the preseason. The single blemish, a 1-point loss at Boston College, is telling. The conference looks like it belongs to a strong Duke team this year, unless North Carolina's young stars jell and mature. Keep watching, this league is one of the more entertaining views every January and February.
The story in the SEC is Kentucky's transcendent freshman point guard, John Wall. Wall, the probable #1 overall pick in next June's NBA Draft, leads his team with 17.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game, and makes it look easy. When his year at Kentucky ends, the comparisons to fellow one-and-doners Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony will be apt. The rest of the Kentucky squad ain't a bunch of slouches, either. Junior forward Patrick Patterson and freshman DeMarcus Cousins are an unstoppable duo in the post that is capable of matching up with anybody in the country.
Surprises: Mississippi
Who could win: Kentucky, Tennessee
There are a couple other decent/good teams in the SEC, but nobody can match Kentucky's talent and depth. I would be shocked if anybody besides Mississippi or Mississippi State (given the return of ineligible freshman Renardo Sidney) beats Kentucky in league.
The story in the Big East is the continued proliferation of Final Four quality teams at the top of the conference, and a slew of feisty competitors underneath. Annually considered to be the top conference in the nation, this year's edition boasts five of the top 13 teams in this week's coaches' poll. I don't know how everybody else feels, but I have an easy time getting these teams mixed up when they're taking turns beating each other up as a part of their impossibly difficult conference schedules. Uconn, Pitt, West Virginia, Villanova, Syracuse: they're all the same to me by the time conference tourneys roll through. That list doesn't even include formidable programs as Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Providence. Whew. Its improbable to keep track of who has beaten who and so forth. They're all good, and its a good bet that at least 8 of them will be going to the Big Dance.
Surprises: Syracuse (pleasant), Louisville (unpleasant)
Who could win: Villanova, West Virginia, Connecticut, Syracuse, Georgetown
That's 5 teams that could realistically win this conference. My guess is that none of them come out of league with less than 2 losses just because of how daunting the schedule is. If you're asking me for a prediction right now? I'd give you West Virginia or Syracuse. You don't want a spineless guess that picks two teams and want a definitive pick? I'll take Syracuse. Then I'll sit down on the couch and watch these heavyweights trade blows on ESPN for the next 9 weeks.
This league boasts the country's top two squads by rank, Kansas and Texas. They have much in common: a fantastic freshman class, superstar upperclassmen, multiple years of tournament experience, and deep benches. They have something else in common in my opinion: they're both not as good as Kentucky. Still, these teams are undoubtedly strong enough to reach the Final Four. If I were to choose between the two, in early January, I'm taking Texas. The Longhorns' preseason was far tougher than the Jayhawks' was, and I think they'll be better for it. Texas hosts Kansas on February 8 in a game that could very well decide the Big 12 title. That game will feature lots of fireworks from experienced big men, explosive freshman, and sharpshooters.
Surprises: Kansas State, Oklahoma (bad)
Who could win: Kansas, Texas
Not a lot of depth in this conference, and really no one to challenge the two heavyweights for supremacy. It should be the Horns and Jayhawks playing nip and tuck until the Big 12 title game on Selection Sunday. My disclaimer is that Kansas State could crash the party with an upset of either team, because they look good.
America's heartland boasts two of the nation's best, Purdue and 2009 runner-up Michigan State. Both teams win in true Big 10 fashion with physical, pound it out, half-court basketball. This conference looked a lot stronger before Ohio State's Naismith Award hopeful Evan Turner went out with a serious spine injury; the Buckeyes have gone just 3-3 since the injury. Purdue is the class of this league and a true favorite to reach Indy's Final Four. They are characterized by good chemistry, fundamentals, few mistakes, and experience, and would be an interesting matchup for any of the fast paced teams in the top 3.
Surprises: Wisconsin, Minnesota (unpleasant), Michigan (catastrophic)
Who could win: Purdue, Michigan State
Purdue certainly looks tougher than Michigan State. Then again, Tom Izzo's squad has 3 losses to Florida, at North Carolina, and against Texas in Dallas: nothing to scoff at.
The Big 10 may not be flashy, but coaches will not make the mistake of taking its teams lightly. The conference's March resume is a testament to that fact.
In the past, this conference has been falsely evaluated as weak. In those occurrences, at least one Pac-10 team has proceeded to defy the odds and make a run deep into the Dance. This year is different: everybody just stinks. Three consecutive Final Fours have led to a 6-8 for Ben Howland's UCLA Bruins, who appear to have been replaced in uniform by stunt doubles who don't play basketball. Cal and Washington were ranked 13 and 14 to begin the season, but had pedestrian preseason records. If they are the class of the league, then it truly is a weak league this year. USC, predicted to finish last in conference and be one of the more depressing teams in the country, has rallied from a poor start to win 8 in a row, including decisive upsets over UNLV and Tennessee. A promising, if untalented, squad Kevin O'Neill has propelled to a 10-4 overall and 2-0 conference mark. The Trojans would look like the consummate darkhorse to win the league were it not for the self-imposed sanctions handed down this week, which include a ban on postseason play for this season. Too bad, this conference needs a feel-good story in a bleak year.
Surprises: USC, Washington (poor)
Who could win: Cal, Washington
Cal's unimpressive 9-4 record is slightly misleading because the losses are to #7 Syracuse, then #15 Ohio State, #14 New Mexico, and #1 Kansas. So there's that. Ultimately it comes down to the fact that no one else can match up with these two squads, as flawed as they are. I think Washington has the edge with so many contributors returning from last year. As it stands, you may not see a Pac-10 team survive the first round of the tourney this year. Yikes. Let's move on.
Among the strong mid-major squads are: Gonzaga, Butler, Temple, BYU, and New Mexico. Gonzaga, Temple, and BYU are probably the strongest of the group based on tough schedules, losses to top-ranked teams, and upset wins like Temple's over Villanova. Butler, a perennial Horizon league power, looks a little bit down this year, losing a couple games that they wouldn't have lost in the past to teams like Minnesota and UAB. Still, the leadership and experience of Gordon Heyward, Matt Howard, and Shelvin Mack make Butler dangerous to ignore. New Mexico at 14-2 after its fresh loss to San Diego State, has an impressive ranking, but may be fool's gold. The Lobos reeled off 12 straight W's to open, but didn't exactly challenge themselves. Their best wins in that stretch, according to my estimation, were a home game with Cal and a road win at Texas A&M. None of the other 10 victories even approached the caliber of those two games. With losses now to Oral Roberts and SDSU, it is hard to peg New Mexico as a surefire Cinderella just yet.
Back to Gonzaga. Mark Few is a great coach and a savvy scheduler. He tries as often as possible to book a spot under the bright lights of the preseason's signature tournaments and primetime matchups. He knows he has to schedule tough games on the road or at neutral sites in the preseason because of the weakness of Gonzaga's conference, the West Coast Conference. Few already booked at Michigan State (loss, 75-71), Wisconsin (win), Cincinnati (win), Wake Forest (loss, 77-75), Duke (loss, 76-41), Oklahoma (win), at Illinois (win), with a road date at Memphis still to come. If you're counting, thats an 11-3 record, with losses at then #2 Michigan State, Wake, and #5 Duke. The Bulldogs are not afraid to challenge the big boys away from Spokane early, and it has repeatedly paid dividends for Few's team late in the season.
Feel prepared for conference play? Turn on ESPNHD and relax as the madness unfolds before your eyes. I'll be back before sometime before Selection Sunday to reset the happenings and offer revised predictions.
As always, your audience is greatly appreciated and does not go unnoticed.
The script entering each season is that the favorites do not lose to the big underdogs; 2008's Final Four was the first in history to feature all four #1 seeds. This trend continued into last year, with no team below a 3 seed reaching the Final Four. This is how the big dance is set up, and it plays out in recruiting the same way. Thus far, the script has unfolded almost exactly according to plan, with 8 of the ESPN coaches' preseason top 10 remaining there at the halfway point. Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, and Purdue occupy the top four spots and are all unbeaten to date. Not everything has gone to script, though, as a handful of teams have not played up to early expectations: UCLA, Butler, and Cal, to name a few. Among the overachieving surprises are #9 Syracuse (preseason #24), #10 Kansas State (unranked), and Reggie Theus' #14 New Mexico Lobos (unranked). Time, and an unrelenting conference slate, will tell whether these teams are built for March, or whether they simply enjoyed hot starts.
Now some conference previews....
ACC
The Atlantic Coast Conference is once again among the strongest in the NCAA. With 5 teams currently ranked, and three more lurking outside the top 25, coaches can be assured that there will be nary an easy win in league, especially on the road. This conference is notorious for its home underdog crowds terrorizing visiting top dogs.
Surprises: Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, Miami
Who could win: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State.
Miami, at 14-1, has an attractive record, but hasn't really played anyone of note in the preseason. The single blemish, a 1-point loss at Boston College, is telling. The conference looks like it belongs to a strong Duke team this year, unless North Carolina's young stars jell and mature. Keep watching, this league is one of the more entertaining views every January and February.
SEC
The story in the SEC is Kentucky's transcendent freshman point guard, John Wall. Wall, the probable #1 overall pick in next June's NBA Draft, leads his team with 17.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game, and makes it look easy. When his year at Kentucky ends, the comparisons to fellow one-and-doners Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony will be apt. The rest of the Kentucky squad ain't a bunch of slouches, either. Junior forward Patrick Patterson and freshman DeMarcus Cousins are an unstoppable duo in the post that is capable of matching up with anybody in the country.
Surprises: Mississippi
Who could win: Kentucky, Tennessee
There are a couple other decent/good teams in the SEC, but nobody can match Kentucky's talent and depth. I would be shocked if anybody besides Mississippi or Mississippi State (given the return of ineligible freshman Renardo Sidney) beats Kentucky in league.
Big East
The story in the Big East is the continued proliferation of Final Four quality teams at the top of the conference, and a slew of feisty competitors underneath. Annually considered to be the top conference in the nation, this year's edition boasts five of the top 13 teams in this week's coaches' poll. I don't know how everybody else feels, but I have an easy time getting these teams mixed up when they're taking turns beating each other up as a part of their impossibly difficult conference schedules. Uconn, Pitt, West Virginia, Villanova, Syracuse: they're all the same to me by the time conference tourneys roll through. That list doesn't even include formidable programs as Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and Providence. Whew. Its improbable to keep track of who has beaten who and so forth. They're all good, and its a good bet that at least 8 of them will be going to the Big Dance.
Surprises: Syracuse (pleasant), Louisville (unpleasant)
Who could win: Villanova, West Virginia, Connecticut, Syracuse, Georgetown
That's 5 teams that could realistically win this conference. My guess is that none of them come out of league with less than 2 losses just because of how daunting the schedule is. If you're asking me for a prediction right now? I'd give you West Virginia or Syracuse. You don't want a spineless guess that picks two teams and want a definitive pick? I'll take Syracuse. Then I'll sit down on the couch and watch these heavyweights trade blows on ESPN for the next 9 weeks.
Big 12
This league boasts the country's top two squads by rank, Kansas and Texas. They have much in common: a fantastic freshman class, superstar upperclassmen, multiple years of tournament experience, and deep benches. They have something else in common in my opinion: they're both not as good as Kentucky. Still, these teams are undoubtedly strong enough to reach the Final Four. If I were to choose between the two, in early January, I'm taking Texas. The Longhorns' preseason was far tougher than the Jayhawks' was, and I think they'll be better for it. Texas hosts Kansas on February 8 in a game that could very well decide the Big 12 title. That game will feature lots of fireworks from experienced big men, explosive freshman, and sharpshooters.
Surprises: Kansas State, Oklahoma (bad)
Who could win: Kansas, Texas
Not a lot of depth in this conference, and really no one to challenge the two heavyweights for supremacy. It should be the Horns and Jayhawks playing nip and tuck until the Big 12 title game on Selection Sunday. My disclaimer is that Kansas State could crash the party with an upset of either team, because they look good.
Big 10
America's heartland boasts two of the nation's best, Purdue and 2009 runner-up Michigan State. Both teams win in true Big 10 fashion with physical, pound it out, half-court basketball. This conference looked a lot stronger before Ohio State's Naismith Award hopeful Evan Turner went out with a serious spine injury; the Buckeyes have gone just 3-3 since the injury. Purdue is the class of this league and a true favorite to reach Indy's Final Four. They are characterized by good chemistry, fundamentals, few mistakes, and experience, and would be an interesting matchup for any of the fast paced teams in the top 3.
Surprises: Wisconsin, Minnesota (unpleasant), Michigan (catastrophic)
Who could win: Purdue, Michigan State
Purdue certainly looks tougher than Michigan State. Then again, Tom Izzo's squad has 3 losses to Florida, at North Carolina, and against Texas in Dallas: nothing to scoff at.
The Big 10 may not be flashy, but coaches will not make the mistake of taking its teams lightly. The conference's March resume is a testament to that fact.
Pac-10
In the past, this conference has been falsely evaluated as weak. In those occurrences, at least one Pac-10 team has proceeded to defy the odds and make a run deep into the Dance. This year is different: everybody just stinks. Three consecutive Final Fours have led to a 6-8 for Ben Howland's UCLA Bruins, who appear to have been replaced in uniform by stunt doubles who don't play basketball. Cal and Washington were ranked 13 and 14 to begin the season, but had pedestrian preseason records. If they are the class of the league, then it truly is a weak league this year. USC, predicted to finish last in conference and be one of the more depressing teams in the country, has rallied from a poor start to win 8 in a row, including decisive upsets over UNLV and Tennessee. A promising, if untalented, squad Kevin O'Neill has propelled to a 10-4 overall and 2-0 conference mark. The Trojans would look like the consummate darkhorse to win the league were it not for the self-imposed sanctions handed down this week, which include a ban on postseason play for this season. Too bad, this conference needs a feel-good story in a bleak year.
Surprises: USC, Washington (poor)
Who could win: Cal, Washington
Cal's unimpressive 9-4 record is slightly misleading because the losses are to #7 Syracuse, then #15 Ohio State, #14 New Mexico, and #1 Kansas. So there's that. Ultimately it comes down to the fact that no one else can match up with these two squads, as flawed as they are. I think Washington has the edge with so many contributors returning from last year. As it stands, you may not see a Pac-10 team survive the first round of the tourney this year. Yikes. Let's move on.
Everybody else
Among the strong mid-major squads are: Gonzaga, Butler, Temple, BYU, and New Mexico. Gonzaga, Temple, and BYU are probably the strongest of the group based on tough schedules, losses to top-ranked teams, and upset wins like Temple's over Villanova. Butler, a perennial Horizon league power, looks a little bit down this year, losing a couple games that they wouldn't have lost in the past to teams like Minnesota and UAB. Still, the leadership and experience of Gordon Heyward, Matt Howard, and Shelvin Mack make Butler dangerous to ignore. New Mexico at 14-2 after its fresh loss to San Diego State, has an impressive ranking, but may be fool's gold. The Lobos reeled off 12 straight W's to open, but didn't exactly challenge themselves. Their best wins in that stretch, according to my estimation, were a home game with Cal and a road win at Texas A&M. None of the other 10 victories even approached the caliber of those two games. With losses now to Oral Roberts and SDSU, it is hard to peg New Mexico as a surefire Cinderella just yet.
Back to Gonzaga. Mark Few is a great coach and a savvy scheduler. He tries as often as possible to book a spot under the bright lights of the preseason's signature tournaments and primetime matchups. He knows he has to schedule tough games on the road or at neutral sites in the preseason because of the weakness of Gonzaga's conference, the West Coast Conference. Few already booked at Michigan State (loss, 75-71), Wisconsin (win), Cincinnati (win), Wake Forest (loss, 77-75), Duke (loss, 76-41), Oklahoma (win), at Illinois (win), with a road date at Memphis still to come. If you're counting, thats an 11-3 record, with losses at then #2 Michigan State, Wake, and #5 Duke. The Bulldogs are not afraid to challenge the big boys away from Spokane early, and it has repeatedly paid dividends for Few's team late in the season.
Feel prepared for conference play? Turn on ESPNHD and relax as the madness unfolds before your eyes. I'll be back before sometime before Selection Sunday to reset the happenings and offer revised predictions.
As always, your audience is greatly appreciated and does not go unnoticed.
