Here We Go Again
June 2nd 2010 22:00
The 2010 NBA Finals are finally upon us. After 6 weeks of drama and surprises, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics are the two left standing. The improbable matchup is a win situation for everyone involved: the NBA, ESPN/ABC, the fans, and the teams themselves. The unparalleled history between the NBA's two premiere franchises runs deep. The Celtics are the most successful team in NBA history, with 17 championships. The Lakers are right behind them in title count, with 15. Including 2010, the Lakers have played in a staggering 31 of 64 NBA Finals. The Celtics won 11 of 13 championships from the late 1950s-mid 1960s, a dynasty unmatched in any sport. Bad blood still flows from a chippy and intense 2008 series, which went to the Celtics in 6 games.
How we got here
Boston grabbed the 4 seed in the East and drew D-Wade's Miami Heat in the first round. Through the filter of my expectations, the Celtics hurdled the Heat a little better than I anticipated, winning in 5 games. Garnett's knee problems started to be forgotten as he performed well.
In the East Semis, we got a ridiculous matchup of Celtics-Cavaliers by virtue of Boston's seemingly low seed. Nothing in this matchup signaled to me that Boston had a chance to win four of seven over LeBron. At the time, the Cavs looked like the best team in the league and had the look that a team gets when it's destined for the Finals. Well, the Celtics dismantled and out-hustled the Cavs en-route to a shocking 6-game upset. As the final ticks came off the clock in Game 6, it looked like the Celtics had completely demoralized the Cavs and forced them into submission. Boston had the ball up by 2-3 possessions with the game still in reach, and the Cavs didn't know what to do. They could have fouled, but they didn't, but they looked uncomfortable standing on the court while the Celtics ran out the clock on their season. The Celtics looked like the 2008 team: superior cohesion, unmatched intensity, an overpowering will, and a defense effort so strong that it is usually offensive to NBA players. Kevin Garnett also looked like his 2008 clone as he obliterated Antawn Jamison on both ends of the court.
The Conference Finals brought Boston to Orlando. The Magic had yet to lose a postseason game heading into the Boston series and was everyone's revised favorite to rematch the Lakers in the Finals. There was so much more to like about the Magic than the Celtics, but Boston was determined. They stole home court advantage by taking both games in Orlando and the first in Boston for a 3-0 lead. The only time Orlando had success was when Boston got a little bored and lost intensity in Games 4 and 5.
The LA Lakers have been a rollercoaster ride throughout the playoffs. Everyone just expects the Lakers to beat everybody else in short order. So when they traveled to Oklahoma City for Games 3 and 4 in the first round, the world watched in horror (or delight) as Oklahoma City embarrassed LA and really exposed the weaknesses of the Defending Champs. The Lakers, for the first time since the Pau Gasol trade in 2008, looked old. Not only that, but good/raw/high ceiling players like Thunder PG Russell Westbrook looked like All-Stars against the Laker defense. Derek Fisher couldn't defend Carrie Fisher. Ron Artest made 18% of his three-pointers. Again, as championship teams do, the Lakers regrouped, blew OKC out at home in Game 5, then escaped the Thunder on Pau Gasol's last-second putback in Game 6. Counter-intuitively, the Thunder would be arguably pose the biggest threat to LA's repeat bid, and they met in the first round.
There isn't much novel to say about the Lakers-Jazz Western Semifinal series, except that the Lakers looked dominant. Utah is a good, good team. Nobody in the NBA is capable of sweeping the Jazz except for the Lakers, for whatever reason. The Lakers swept, embodied a championship urgency and drive--rare for them--and marched into a Pacific Division showdown with the Nash's Suns.
The Lakers-Suns series was wildly entertaining and dramatic. Off the top, it is relevant to note how horribly egregious the officiating was in this series. The Lakers benefited when on their home court, but not remotely as much as Phoenix did on theirs. It was as if Commissioner Stern called from NBA headquarters and told the refs, "We need this series to go long. This series is going at least 6 games, and you're going to make it happen." What? You think this doesn't happen in the NBA? I'm telling you, its not nearly as impossible as you think it is. LA won both games at home, shooting a blistering near-60% from the field and averaging about 125 points. Things changed when the series shifted to the U.S. Airways Center as Amare Stoudemire came alive, the Suns killed the Lakers in free throw margin, and a creative zone by Suns coach Alvin Gentry stunned the Lakers into settling for too many jump shots. The Suns held serve at home, sending the series back to LA for Game 5. The Lakers came out strong in Game 5, storming to an 18 point lead in the first half. This game was a mirror image of the OKC Game 5, we'll dub it The Regroup Game. The Suns showed 8 different kinds of moxie and poise, chipping away at the lead down the stretch until a wild possession of offensive rebounds and a Jason Richardson bank three tied the game at 101 with 5 seconds remaining. Kobe got the ball, threw up an airball, and the most unlikely of heroes, Ron Artest-Rodman, snatched it out of the air, turned from under the basket, and banked home a 3-footer just shy of the buzzer for the win. Euphoria ensued, the Lakers celebrated awkwardly around Artest, fans couldn't believe the turn of events. Game 6 was again roundly controlled by the Lakers and a pathologically locked-in Kobe Bryant (33.7 pts, 7.2 reb, 8.3 ast, 51.2% FG for the series), and the Suns finally succumbed in a hard fought match with their rival.
Where we are now
A grudge match between the NBA's most storied franchises. The Celtics are on a roll, looking more active and healthy than any time in the last 18 months. The Lakers are a bit older and more tested. They have the championship swagger and the burden of defending their title. The question of their toughness that surfaced in the 2008 Finals remains unsolved. The Celtics were better in 2008 and, objectively, the Lakers look slightly better this time around.
The Celtics will bring their patented tough defense and must slow down the hot-shooting Bryant. Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum must have a large impact on both ends of the floor to contain Kevin Garnett, control the glass, and ease Kobe's offensive load. The Lakers might try to speed the pace in order to get into a scoring match and avoid a game governed by defense, the Celtics' strength. Boston will look to bump and bang the Lakers in an attempt to make them timid and hesitant, which worked beautifully in 2008.
Two major differences from 2008, one on each side. Paul Pierce was a matchup nightmare for the Lakers in the last series. The Lakers ' Bryant, Trevor Ariza, and Lamar Odom all were misfits against the plodding but agile Pierce. This time around, LA has a potential antidote in Artest, who can match the size, strength, and physicality of Pierce in his favorite spot at the elbow. The result of this matchup has significant bearing on the outcome of the series at large.
The other major change is Rajon Rondo's place in the Celtic hierarchy. Two years ago, he was in his second season and first as a starter in a lineup with 3 future Hall of Famers. He navigated his way through the playoffs, getting better every series and being careful to appease the superstars at every point. He wasn't perfect, but he was good enough for Boston to win the title, and definitely contributed positively. Now in his fourth season, Rondo has solidified himself as a top 5, maybe top 3, point guard in the NBA. His versatility and physical gifts are unique, even in a world with Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Derrick Rose. He is a nightly threat for a triple-double, and has drastically improved his offensive arsenal to the point that you have to pay attention to him on the perimeter. But if you do that, he'll burst by you to the basket, where he finishes and dishes highlight reel passes equally well. No longer is he someone whose success the Lakers are surprised by; Rondo's impact is now at the forefront of Phil Jackson's game plan.
Kevin Garnett has hooked up to the rejuvenation machine in this postseason. His game isn't one that typically declines over time because of its fade away, jump shooting, finesse nature. In other words, Kevin Garnett can jump and shoot from the power forward position at 33 as well as he did at 27. His resurgence is largely responsible for Boston's upset run to the Finals over two "better" teams. This won't happen for the sake of continuity, but if I'm Phil Jackson, I'm thinking long and hard about starting Lamar Odom in this series and putting him on Garnett to start, with Bynum coming in to relieve him. Gasol, as hard a time as he's had in shedding the "soft" label, should be fine on Kendrick Perkins because of his small offensive role. Whoever he's guarding, Gasol has to be a monster on the defensive glass in this series, a place where the Lakers got killed 2 years ago.
Of utmost importance to the Celtics is how to stop Kobe. Gone is James Posey, their best attempt at a Kobe stopper from 2008. Posey was largely effective in harassing Kobe and generally throwing him out of his rhythm, and Paul Pierce was serviceable in relief of Posey as well. The Celtics best hope is to start Pierce on Kobe, then throw Tony Allen at him off the bench. Kobe has completed his transition into a full-fledged killer in the post, an evolution that was incomplete in 2008. He's also proven to be just as deadly from the perimeter in this postseason, and has looked ever so spry since getting his knee drained a few weeks ago. This is the number one priority for Doc Rivers and defensive guru Tom Thibodeau: stopping Kobe. Given the defenders he's got, I don't think Rivers can do it. Not this time.
Other things to watch for: Bynum and his mangled knee, Ray Allen's incredible sharpshooting, Shannon Brown's effectiveness off the bench, Rasheed Wallace's impact, and Glen Davis' health and productivity off the Boston bench. Bench play will be a huge factor while the starters rest. With every star player in this series over 32 years old, the bench and other role players (Odom, Artest, Brown, Fisher for the Lakers and Wallace, Robinson, Tony Allen, Davis, and Perkins for the Celtics) have huge responsibility and impact when they are on the floor.
Keys to Success
Boston
--Win Game 1 or 2 on the road
--Muscle up on the Lakers' big men (especially Gasol)
--Pressure the point guards and attack them on offense
--Funnel Kobe into help defense
--Don't let Lamar Odom get going. When Lamar Odom is going well, the Lakers are virtually unbeatable
--Slow the pace and make the Lakers play half court offense
--Give Rondo room to operate on Fisher and Farmar and spread the paint, enabling him to create
--Make Bynum move on defense
Los Angeles
--HOLD HOME COURT at all costs. Phil Jackson's teams are 45-0 when winning Game 1 of a playoff series
--Contain Rondo and Pierce
--Put Kobe on Rondo and Fisher on Ray Allen to start
--Do everything possible to get Lamar Odom going on offense and on the defensive glass
--Control the rebounding margin
--Make the jump shooters (Allen and Garnett) beat you, not the finisher/slashers (Pierce and Rondo)
--Push the pace, don't let Boston set up their half court defense
--Give Kobe room to operate, but don't stand around and watch him
Which ever team does more of these things correctly will win the series, its that simple. The Lakers weren't anticipating home court advantage if they were to advance to the Finals, but Boston's upsets of Cleveland and Orlando have given that advantage to the Lakers. LA will tell you the home court doesn't matter enough to make a difference, but they couldn't be happier about it. The Lakers are 28-3 in their last 31 home playoff games, and haven't lost in 8 home games this postseason. Phil's teams are literally unbeatable when winning Game 1 in the series, so it is imperative that Boston steals Game 1 on Thursday night. I think the Lakers are a better team and are better prepared for everything the Celtics will throw at them than they were in 2008. The Lakers have fared miserably against the Celtics in the Finals, with a 2-9 record in 11 championship series dating back to the 1960s Russell-West/Baylor teams. If this series has taught us anything, though, its that you can throw all the numbers, trends, and stats out the window. Kobe is the mentally strongest and most competitive player in the series and has discovered how to win without Shaq. There is no worry about the Lakers will to win; they are properly motivated to pay the Celtics back and to defend their crown. Boston is playing fantastically cohesive basketball and truly peaking at the perfect time. This series can go either way, but the Laker home court advantage is grounds enough for me to pick with my heart.
Lakers in 7
This series is well matched and these players and coaches know each other very well. The NBA's most decorated and beloved rivalry is ready to tip off its latest installment. Are you?
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