Murray State at Tennessee State
February 3rd 2011 23:19
Well it feels good to get that first free play win in five days last night with Bowling Green and N. Illinois going over the total. I am going to stay in College Basketball tonight and play another total that I feel the books are off on. I do have a Top Play for sale on a home underdog tonight that will win outright in College Basketball.
Free Play: Murray State and Tennessee State Over 135.5
Let first start by saying some people might question why the over play in this game when these two teams played at the beginning of January and they went under the total and only scored 117 points total. The question is why would the books open this game at 135, 18 points higher then what they finished at last game?
I am going to start by saying that Murray State averages more possessions on the road this year then what they do at home while Tennessee State also averages more possessions at home then on the road. Murray States defense efficiency is 1.040 on the road this year while at home it is .863. That is a big difference from how well they play defense at home then compared to on the road.
Murray State and Tennessee State have both increased their offensive output over the past five games. Murray State is averaging 81.4 points per game the last five games which is 13.3 points higher then their season average. The defense for Murray State has actually decreased the past five games allowing 68 points per game which is 5 points lower than their season average. On the road this season Murray State is allowing teams to shoot 48.6 % on them and allow teams to shoot almost 40% from three point land on the road. Let’s not forget that Murray State is one of the top free throw shooting teams on the road shooting 80.7% from the line away from home this season. Murray State this year in conference is shooting 49.9% from the field.
Tennessee State is averaging 70.4 points per game the last five games which are 2.3 points higher then their season average of 68.1 points per game. The defense from Tennessee State is allowing 72 points per game the last five games which are about their average on the year. The offense efficiency from Tennessee State is 1.063 the last three games and the defense efficiency is 1.140. Tennessee State over their last three homes games are averaging 71.6 points per game.
Here are a few trends that I like for this game.
-The over is 7-1 the last eight games that Murray State has been a road favorite.
-The over is 4-1-1 the last six games against the Ohio Valley Conference.
-The over is 15-5-2 the last 22 games for Murray State after an ATS loss.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State as an underdog.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State in the Ohio Valley Conference.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State as a home dog of .5-6.5
Look for these two teams to have almost 70 possessions each in this game tonight and with how well they have been shooting as of late this game should go over the total. I am going to play the over in this one tonight looking to make it two in a row now. My personal numbers have this game finishing at about 142 points.
Free Play: Murray State and Tennessee State Over 135.5
Let first start by saying some people might question why the over play in this game when these two teams played at the beginning of January and they went under the total and only scored 117 points total. The question is why would the books open this game at 135, 18 points higher then what they finished at last game?
I am going to start by saying that Murray State averages more possessions on the road this year then what they do at home while Tennessee State also averages more possessions at home then on the road. Murray States defense efficiency is 1.040 on the road this year while at home it is .863. That is a big difference from how well they play defense at home then compared to on the road.
Murray State and Tennessee State have both increased their offensive output over the past five games. Murray State is averaging 81.4 points per game the last five games which is 13.3 points higher then their season average. The defense for Murray State has actually decreased the past five games allowing 68 points per game which is 5 points lower than their season average. On the road this season Murray State is allowing teams to shoot 48.6 % on them and allow teams to shoot almost 40% from three point land on the road. Let’s not forget that Murray State is one of the top free throw shooting teams on the road shooting 80.7% from the line away from home this season. Murray State this year in conference is shooting 49.9% from the field.
Tennessee State is averaging 70.4 points per game the last five games which are 2.3 points higher then their season average of 68.1 points per game. The defense from Tennessee State is allowing 72 points per game the last five games which are about their average on the year. The offense efficiency from Tennessee State is 1.063 the last three games and the defense efficiency is 1.140. Tennessee State over their last three homes games are averaging 71.6 points per game.
Here are a few trends that I like for this game.
-The over is 7-1 the last eight games that Murray State has been a road favorite.
-The over is 4-1-1 the last six games against the Ohio Valley Conference.
-The over is 15-5-2 the last 22 games for Murray State after an ATS loss.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State as an underdog.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State in the Ohio Valley Conference.
-The over is 4-1 the last five games for Tennessee State as a home dog of .5-6.5
Look for these two teams to have almost 70 possessions each in this game tonight and with how well they have been shooting as of late this game should go over the total. I am going to play the over in this one tonight looking to make it two in a row now. My personal numbers have this game finishing at about 142 points.
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