NBA Playoff Thoughts
Nearing the midway point of the postseason after nearly a month, I wanted to drop in with some reactions to the outcomes, thoughts on how teams have looked, and laments on how terrible my picks are yet again.
Currently, the health of LeBron James stands as the question looming over the entire playoffs. There is no bigger single determinant of everyone else's playoff fate than LeBron's injured right elbow. If LeBron isn't 100%, the Cavaliers are going to lose the series to the left-for-dead Celtics in short order. Boston completely throttled Cleveland on its home floor Monday. Cleveland rolled over and did not put up much of a fight until the final few minutes when the game was essentially decided. Now, the reason for the rollover is anyone's guess. LeBron's injury hampering his effectiveness is a popular explanation, but I think it has less to do with the Most Valuable Elbow than it does with the ineptitude of Cleveland head coach Mike Brown.
Brown refused to adjust to his team's sputtering offense instead emphasizing the need to feed Shaquille O'Neal in the post. Possession after possession, even as Cleveland's deficit was growing, the Cavs dished to Shaq in the post. This would have been a great idea...in 2003. Shaq looked awful in Game 2, to the tune of 9 points and 4 rebounds in 19 minutes while sucking the life out of teammate Mo Williams (1-9, 0-4 3PT). As a result, LeBron was limited to 15 shots, and backup J.J. Hickson played only 19 minutes in spite of scoring 13 points. Also, there's no way that Kendrick Perkins' near double-double (10 pts, 9 reb) and Rasheed Wallace's resurrection (17 pts on 7-8 FG) are coincidence. It is no surprise that two guys who have contributed next to nothing for Boston all year long suddenly erupted with Shaq guarding them. Boston seems focused, motivated, and like they have their 2008 mojo back. The murmurs about KG's dead knees has faded, Rondo has taken the mantle as the team leader, and Ray Allen's effectiveness hasn't changed in 10 years. Even Danny Ainge is contributing to the resurgence. The point of this rant is that 2010 Shaq is ineffective, derails any flow his team has on offense, and is a defensive liability, and that Mike Brown is a fool for keeping him in his rotation at Hickson's expense. I expect Brown to realize this around Game 6 in Boston, which might be too late for him to win the series, especially if his star player is not healthy. After that, I envision a news break on the day of Game 1 of the Eastern Finals between the Magic and Celtics annoucing that the Cavs have decided to let Brown go. And it won't be a moment too soon for a coach who has ridden the coattails of LeBron for the last 5 seasons.
The resurgent Celtics aren't the only ones who are looking formidable against Cleveland. Orlando laid in the weeds all season long, but seem to be peaking at the right time. After sweeping Charlotte and then euthanizing Atlanta in Game 1 of the East semis, everyone in the media immediately remembered, "Oh crap, these are the guys who dismantled Cleveland last year and gave the Lakers all they could handle. They're for real." The only differences between this May and last May are that Hedo Turkoglu was replaced by Vince Carter (good move in retrospect), and Jameer Nelson is healthy and firing. This team doesn't even need Dwight Howard to play offense to be successful, as evidenced by his 9 points per game average in the Charlotte series. Many are picking this team to represent the East against the Lakers in the Finals, even with Cleveland alive. If the Cavs lose to Boston, you can take to the bank that Orlando will be playing a rematch against the Lakers in June, this time with homecourt advantage.
Speaking of the Lakers, what is there to say about these guys? They're either the most epically bored NBA powerhouse of all time, or they truly live or die on matchups. In Round 1 against OKC, the Lakers looked old, unathletic, and essentially helpless. That's a lot to say about a team that trots out the likes of Kobe, Odom, Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Artest-Rodman and Shannon Brown every night. It seemed like the Lakers did everything they could just to get by in that series. Now? The Lakers look dominant against Utah, as usual. The claim that Utah matches up poorly against LA is a broken record in the media, but apparently makes all the difference in the world to a Laker team just biding its time. The Jazz have lost 9 straight playoff games at the Staples Center and have had their season ended by the Lakers the last 2 years. I was afraid the Lakers might not make it out of the OKC series (and for good reason), and now I can't imagine how Utah will avoid getting swept by them. D-Will and Boozer are doing all they can, but falling prey to 3 double-doubles (Gasol, Odom, Bynum) in the same game is simply too much for two guys to handle.
On the other side of the West bracket, we find two teams that can't stand each other--yep, its Suns-Spurs. The Suns came into their series against Portland as the hottest team in the West, then stumbled a bit before putting the Blazers away. San Antonio--right on cue after being counted out AGAIN--surgically dismantled the time bomb that was Dallas. What a mess the Mavs were in that series. This Spurs team fascinates me. Its not the usual Duncan then Parker-Ginobili road to success. Turns out Duncan wasn't saving anything for the playoffs, he's just got nothing left in the tank. There has been a clear shift in leadership on the Spurs: Manu Ginobili has officially taken the reins from Duncan. Ginobili's 20.1 point average so far in the postseason is nicely complemented by Duncan's 18.4 and Parker's 17.3. George Hill's 13.6 have been huge as well. We shouldn't kid ourselves; the Spurs could just as easily have been the #2 seed as Dallas was, and really should have been considered favorites in that series. I for one will admit to being sucked in by the playoffs-soft Mavs, which came to light in my predictions post. You should go read it. Really, go capture the evidence before I delete the post from the blog. However, I added an interesting qualifier in that prediction: the Spurs make everyone who leaves them for dead look foolish by reinventing themselves under the mastery of Gregg Popovich. I said that the Spurs crush it every time this happens, and then I proceeded to bury them for 2010 (You can look that up, too).
All this praise of the Spurs noted, I'm taking the Suns to reach the West Finals. Still competitive or not, the Spurs are old and relatively unathletic, and those are qualities that the Suns feast on. If matchups is the theme of this post, then the Suns match up great against the Spurs. Duncan, the best defensive power forward of all time, couldn't guard Amar'e Stoudemire in 2006, and can't do it now. Tony Parker has a worse allergy to defense than does Steve Nash, and Nash is way more of a threat. Everyone left the Suns for dead earlier this season when Amar'e was playing lazily. It turns out they have something to prove, too.
Stay tuned for more failed picks and updates about the playoffs as the action unfolds.
