NLCS Preview
October 15th 2009 05:57
The 2009 National League Championship Series has fulfilled its purpose, just like its American League counterpart has done. The first round of the playoff has produced the two best teams in a best of seven for a shot at the World Series. Cardinals fans could argue that their team was the best of the regular season and simply had a bad series against the Dodgers, but the reason the Dodgers won so handily is because they are a better team. LA's matchup against Philadelphia is shaping up to be a very compelling series.
So let's break it down just like we did with the ALCS. Let it be read that I don't know yet which team I think will win. Rest easy, though, because I will have a prediction by the time my preview is done.
Offense/lineup
The Phils are stacked. The Dodgers are stacked. Philadelphia might have the most balanced speed/average/power combination in all of baseball, including the Yankees. With 30 steals and power at the top in Jimmy Rollins, followed by the Flyin' Hawaiian Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jason Werth, Raul Ibanez, and so on. The Dodgers are a little thinner and less dependable at the top with Rafael Furcal, and Joe Torre seems unable to find a lineup he likes enough to stay with. Andre Ethier, Man-Ram, and superstar Matt Kemp form a substantial 3-4-5, if Torre situates them there. The bottom also thins out in the LA lineup, with the corpse of Russell Martin, Ronnie Belliard/Orlando Hudson, and Casey Blake. If that comparison does not favor Philly enough already, the fact that every hitter in the top 7 slots is either left handed or switch-hitting. That creates matchup problems that will only make things worse for the thin Dodger rotation.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Rotation
The Dodger rotation, for better or worse, looks a lot different now than it did in April. Chad Billingsley looked like a Cy Young candidate at the start, but can't seem to get anybody out these days. At present, he's not even scheduled into the rotation, but will come on in relief instead. He's handed over the staff ace reins to Clayton Kershaw, who may just be ready to have his coming out party on the big stage in this series. He will take the ball in Game 1 with huge pressure to win at home. The midseason pickup of Vicente Padilla has paid off for the Dodgers, but they will be sorely disappointed if they count on Padilla to pitch well in a must-win game. Randy Wolf and Hiroki Kuroda both pitch well in stretches and can be downright dominant on any given night. Overall though, the Dodger rotation is nothing to be feared by the potent Philly hitters.
The Phils on the other hand have competent starting pitching coming out of the woodwork. Cole Hamels will lead them into Game 1, with Pedro Martinez, Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton to follow. The Dodgers get no breaks because the Phillies have trot out 4 guys capable of throwing a shutout at any time. Hamels especially likes facing LA, posting a 2-0 record, 1.50 ERA, and 26 K in 30.0 innings in his career against them.
Advantage: Phillies
The Pen
Both teams have good arms in the bullpen, but the Dodgers are a cut above the Phillies and the rest of the National League for the year. The emergence of Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario was a nice surprise for Torre all year long. With Billingsley and situational lefty Hong-Chi Kuo, the Dodger relief is well capable of shortening any game. Any game that the Dodgers lead is essentially over in 7 innings before setup man George Sherrill and closer Jonathan Broxton take the ball. The Dodger starters must keep them in the game while the offense scratches some runs together or else they will lose the advantages they gain at the back of the bullpen. The Phillie bullpen has had surprising success while being a revolving door of roles all season long. The specifics of their relief do not compare with the stock in the Dodger bullpen, and Charlie Manuel should cross his fingers that his offense produces multi-run leads for closer Brad Lidge to enjoy, because he is about as dependable to close games as your local weatherman is to predict the weather.
BIG advantage: Dodgers
Manager/Coaching
Charlie Manuel has done a great job with his team over the last two years, but had a wealth of talent from the start. Even the immortal John McCloskey (sort by W-L%, click twice) could manage this roster to the NLCS in consecutive years. Joe Torre's roster isn't exactly chopped liver either, but I don't think even the most blindly loyal Phillie fan would say that his guy is better than Torre at his job.
Advantage: Dodgers
On paper, or in a shorter series, I really like the Dodgers, but you can't trot out a rotation of Kershaw, Padilla, Wolf, and Kuroda and expect to see Game 6 against Philadelphia. Not when the other team has Hamels, Martinez, Lee, and Blanton. There's no large Dodger advantage aside from the bullpen, and you can't use that advantage if you don't have the lead. As much as my heart is screaming "FREEWAY SERIES," I have to go with my better judgment on this one.
Phillies in 5 games
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