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Offense Wins Games, Streak Shooting Wins Championships



Through two rounds of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, the Orlando Magic are unbeaten, and mostly unchallenged. Their current demolition of the #3 seeded Atlanta Hawks was among the most lopsided series' in playoff history, surpassed by only one series by average margin of victory.

To say that the Magic are firing on all cylinders might be an understatement at this point. They flew under the radar most of the season, letting LeBron's Cavs, the declining Celtics, and upstart Hawks collect most of the attention in the East. Down the stretch, this team really hit its stride, going 23-5 after the All-Star break, and now 8-0 in the playoffs. Stan Van's squad has won 17 of its last 18, having lost just once (at San Antonio) since March 24.

The question about the reigning Eastern Conference Champs is, How are they so easily brushing off teams who everyone thought were good, like the Hawks? The answer is not new--incredibly strong perimeter shooting. One look at Dwight Howard's playoff scoring shows that Orlando's dominance is not a product of his own dominance of the paint. Superman checks in with just 15 points a game in these playoffs, and that's after factoring in the 21 a game in the Atlanta series. As always, the Magic are making-or-breaking with their shooters, who are all going bonkers, especially from beyond the arc.

Through 8 games, the team is shooting a gaudy 48.8% overall, with a healthy 38.4% from 3 point territory while attempting a high volume of tries (29 a game).
Jameer Nelson's been huge with 20.5 points and 40% three-point shooting in the playoffs
The Magic have taken nearly 40% of their total shots from behind the line, which is far and away the highest among remaining teams. Leading the Hawks 3-0 in the series, Orlando had its best shooting performance yet in Game 4, finishing at 55% for the game after hovering above 60% for most of the first three quarters. The Magic's mind-numbing 16 three-pointers on an equally mind-numbing 37 attempts were a big reason they were able to separate from Atlanta and demoralize them early in the game.

Looking at the box score, one can see that this remarkably accurate shooting allows a team to buck other statistics that are typical harbingers for failure.

Coaches think that they will usually be successful if their team makes more free throws than the opponent attempts. Atlanta made 21 out of 29, Orlando made 10 of 19. Check #1 for Mike Woodson.

Coaches think that they will usually be succesful if their team wins the turnover battle by a significant margin. Atlanta turned the ball over just 7 times, while Orlando turned it over 15. Check #2 for Mike Woodson.

Coaches think that they will usually be succesful if their bench outscores the other team's bench significantly. Atlanta's bench scored 36 points, Orlando's scored 25. Check #3 for Mike Woodson.

As indicative as these stats usually are, there is one from Game 4 that is even more telling: the offensive glass. If you had told Mike Woodson before Game 4 that Orlando's first offensive rebound wouldn't come until 7:47 left in the 4th quarter, he would probably start packing his bag for a quick departure to Orlando after a Game 4 win. Not so fast. Because Orlando was so unconscious from the perimeter, they had very few chances to even make offensive rebounds. If the ball's going in the hoop, you have no need to rebound it. Atlanta did everything that coaches want their teams to do, and they still got throttled. Maybe this is a sign of just how locked in Orlando is that they could induce such helplessness from their opponents.

As a Laker fan, the Orlando Magic do not currently put the fear of God in me. A team that relies so heavily on perimeter shooting--however efficient, deadly, accurate, clutch--is bound to hit the skids, maybe for several games at a time. Warning to Stan Van: you better get Dwight Howard motivated and involved in the paint, or else your team could start shooting you out of highly crucial playoff games in the near future.
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