You'll have to pardon me while I write. Fresh off the the completion of the ALCS with the Yankees' closeout of my Angels, I'm in a bit of a despondent sulk. For the record, the Yankees were the better team all series long, but the Angels shot themselves in the foot (or feet) at several crucial points throughout the series that dramatically altered the outcome. Alright, I got that out of the way, now on with the World Series preview.
The Yankees, when the starting pitching clicks, look virtually unbeatable. If C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte replicate their performances from the ALCS, then we are in for a fascinating clash of giants. Sorry, I screwed up the ALCS prediction. I stand by my pick. The Phillies simply undressed the Dodgers in the NLCS, just as I thought they would in 5 games, giving away the one game they dropped in Los Angeles. When that vaunted lineup mixes correctly with the unmatched starting rotation, the Phillies look virtually unbeatable. Both teams' hitting orders are second-to-none. One perfectly fulfilled my pick, the other perfectly foiled my pick. A few other factors might determine who will take the crown late next week. Let's break it down.
Offense
We know that this is the biggest strength of both clubs. Indeed, there may not be two more balanced lineups in all of baseball. Both teams have postseason experience and a winning attitude, although the Yankees haven't been on this stage in 6 years. The Phillies have no holes and have incredibly versatility with speed and power at the top, power and average in the middle, and whatever they need at the bottom. Playing in the National League may cause this team to focus in a little more on making the most of their opportunities, which is something the Yankees do not have. There is no doubt that the Phils will make the transition to the AL game much smoother than the Yankees will go to the NL game. The Yankees may have fewer easy outs in their lineup, and I don't want to downplay the potency of this lineup, but my eyeballs tell me the Phillies look stronger and more balanced.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Rotation
I'll save the histrionics and intrigue of this pick. By going out and getting better at the deadline in picking up defending AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, the Phillies established their starting rotation as the best in baseball. Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Pedro Martinez, Jamie Moyer, and J.A. Happ are as tough and deep 1-6 as you will find anywhere. They showed how good they can be in holding the Dodgers to less than 5 runs in every game except for one during the NLCS. Lee's Game 3 8-inning shutout was masterful. For the Yankees, its basicallly Sabathia's brilliance and then crossed fingers. You can never know whether you'll get 7 shutout innings from A.J. Burnett or 4 walks in 5 innings with 5 runs allowed. Andy Pettitte is a gritty and experienced starter who will not be spooked by the spotlight. He may not have the best stuff of his career, but he makes up for a lot of that by knowing how to pitch in the World Series. After Pettitte, there are many question marks: Will Joe Girardi go with the same 3-man rotation that he did in the ALCS? If he adds a 4th starter, will it be Joba Chamberlain or Chad Guadin? Either way, the Phillies are much, much deeper and frightening when their starter takes the ball in the 1st inning. The Yankees cannot afford for Sabathia to be anything less than dominant in his 2 starts.
Advantage: Phillies
Bullpen
The Yankees certainly didn't impress me in front of Mariano Rivera in the ALCS, blowing leads in Game 2, Game 3, and Game 5. Rivera was brilliant aside from his slip up in the clinching game's 2-inning save. Phil Hughes was not good in his outings, and Phil Coke sounds like he should be working for a certain major drink corporation. Chamberlain was pedestrian at best, and Damaso Marte couldn't hold the Angels either. Once again, the Yankees must have the lead when they get to Rivera to be confident that they can shorten the game. The good news is, the Phillie bullpen is equally bad, or worse. Their saving grace may be having Moyer and/or Happ available to pitch in every game because they won't be in the rotation. Brad Lidge looked good in his short work, collecting a save and a win in 2 scoreless LCS innings. Still, no lead is safe with him on the mound in the 9th, especially against New York. The long and middle relievers and setup guys look like a complete wash to me, and the Yankees have a better closer.
Advantage: Yankees
Fielding
I have to be honest: I watched no more than 3 innings of the entire NLCS. I was that confident in my prediction that the Phillies would prevail. I can't speak specifically about the Philadelphia defense, but I do know that Shane Victorino is fantastic in centerfield and that Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are slick in the middle infield. I know Carlos Ruiz is a good defensive catcher. They always say that you'll be good on defense if you're competent through the middle of the field, and the Phillies definitely fit that criteria. I did get a chance to watch the Yankee defense. I got the chance to watch Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and the corner outfielders rob hit after hit from my Angels. Teixeira is unmatched at first base. Jeter's demise at short may or may not be drastically exaggerated. Swisher and Damon are just not-bad enough to play the field everyday. This series could be determined by the glove work, because we know that both defenses will be busy.
Advantage: Push
Manager/Coaching
Joe Girardi did nothing to change my opinion of him. In fact, he just confirmed to me that he overmanages his team in certain situations, and ends up burning his pitchers and bench players too early. If he can't figure out how to correctly manage a National League game, he's going to find himself in a situation desperately needing a guy he already burned in a double-switch or something. This double-switch, National League style of game cannot be understated for a visiting American League manager. I'm not wild about Charlie Manuel either. He looks like he's ready for pudding pops and "Murder, She Wrote" reruns at the retirement home, not his 2nd consecutive World Championship. So who's got the upper hand on the coaching staff? Beats me. The Yankees used to have Don Zimmer and Donnie Baseball as coaches, right? Oh, I love Tony Pena's mustache, too. We'll go with that.
Advantage: Yankees
Intangibles
It's hard to beat the Yankees in this category. Jeter, Pettitte, Sabathia, Rivera, Posada. All these guys have been here a handful of times and know what it takes to win this thing, minus Sabathia. Jeter's talents are clearly shown in his career statistics, but he's even better with the unexplainable stuff. He's just always in the right place making the flash bulb play in the field or working that full count to a tough base hit or whatever. The Phils aren't short on these things, either. Ryan Howard seems to have that knack for big spots as well, and a big sense of clutch, too. Rollins has all the tools, Victorino is a relentless scrapper, and Jayson Werth will kill you if you focus too hard on the top 4 hitters.
Here's the kicker: the Phillies won it last year, so they know what it takes to win. Their team is virtually the same as last year's champions, so they have know each other and have the chemistry. The Yankees haven't been here since 2003. Things have changed, Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, and Posada are the only holdovers from that team, and they're old. Still productive, but old. Against a lesser foe, I'd take the Yankees here, but if anyone besides the Bombers knows how to win a World Series, its these Phillies.
Advantage: Phillies
Prediction: I'd love to be diplomatic and not offer one. Really, I'm scared to pick between the true best team from each league because they're both so good. However, I know that people love the predictions, that the predictions are polarizing and fun to argue or agree with. Let the arguing or agreeing begin: Philadelphia in 7
There are many problems with the MLB All-Star Game that subtract from the Midsummer Classic's credibility, but the one that takes the cake for me (and almost everyone else) is the fan vote.
Why? In short, fans are stupid. They are biased, emotional, and agenda-driven; instead of seeing the best player at every position, they continue to vote for popular players who don't deserve to start, much less be on the team, like Derek Jeter. Ichiro is a heck of an outfielder, but there are a handful of AL reserves who are much more deserving of the starting spot he was voted into. This is because Ichiro is simply more popular than the likes of Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter, or Adam Jones.
Feel good stories create sentimental favorites for All-Star voting. Exhibit A: Josh Hamilton. Hamilton is a great outfielder and superb hitter, but there is absolutely no reason he should be on the AL All-Star team. Hamilton's numbers are nothing special on a per game basis, and he missed about a month of action with an injury. Does Hamilton, or teammate Michael Young, REALLY deserve to be an All-Star over mashers like Miguel Cabrera or Ian Kinsler? This is not subject to opinion. The answer, based on facts and figures, is no, not a chance.
I propose an overhaul of the All-Star selection system. I think the manager of each league should be presented with a list of all the top producers at each position over the first half of games. The top 2 from every position (or 4 for the outfield and 3 starting pitchers) get an invite. Its that simple. This method eliminates the ridiculous popularity contest that goes on, which is incredibly influenced by biased and agenda-driven media outlets. It also eliminates former superstars who are still popular but are no longer productive (Jeter, Miguel Tejada), and ensures that injured/suspended players don't win votes they shouldn't get (Hamilton, Manny Ramirez).
Most importantly, it keeps players like Tim Wakefield from EVER getting chosen as an All-Star. Oh wait, he got his first bid this year based on lies, perception, and being on a good team? Sounds like a little ESPN has been successful with its East Coast propaganda. There is a reason players like Wakefield don't make the All-Star team: because they're not good players. But with the fan vote, literally ANY player in the majors has a chance to start for its league's All-Star team.
Every year, the talking heads always go over the rosters and say who got snubbed and who doesn't belong. With my system, there wouldn't BE any snubs because the most deserving players would be selected. My system also returns the significance to being an All-Star. Current All-Star rosters carry 34 players from each league. My system would streamline teams, cutting down rosters to 21-25 players. Simply stated, it would be harder to be an All-Star. Also, I would eliminate the requirement that every team be represented on the All-Stars. This way, managers wouldn't have to waste a spot on Justin Duchscherer (2008), Freddy Sanchez (2006 and 07), Mark Redman, David Eckstein, and Jose Lopez (all in 2006).
The current system allows mediocre players to put "All-Star" on their resumes, many for having one exceptional half season. It diminishes the meaning of being an All-Star caliber player. My system restores the accolade of being an All-Star, making it an accomplishment to truly be proud of. No more are the days of "Player X: 1 career All-Star appearance."
All of this we owe to the fan vote. But baseball's All-Star festivities are not the only ones tainted by the fan vote. The same applies to the NBA, although with less egregious mistakes made by fans. I think the fans shouldn't be allowed to vote for ANY All-Stars.
Finally, the MLB All-Star game is a walking, talking, money-making spectacle of a contradiction. Since 2003, the game has "mattered" instead of simply be an exhibition. The winner of the game would be awarded home field advantage in the World Series, which is a very real incentive to play for. The players play to win, the managers manage to win...but the fans still get to put sub-par players on the field in a very crucial, meaningful, and intense situation. Before 2003, it didn't matter. Now it does. The game should either return to being an exhibition, or the fan vote should be abolished. The contradiction cannot continue.
What is MLB afraid of? Does it fear that keeping the fans from voting will reduce the compelling nature or fan-friendliness of the event? If anything, having the best players in each league go head-to-head makes the game MORE compelling and MORE fan-friendly. Sometimes (ok, most of the time) I fail to understand Commissioner Bud Selig's logic.
So next Tuesday when you tune into the game, think about who got snubbed this year and who doesn't belong on that field in St. Louis. Think about how much the level of the game is brought down by players who are in over their heads. Consider all this and think about a perfect system without flaws.
All you have to do for 2010 is not vote.
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