The Decision
Less than 24 hours from now, the final piece of this summer's free agent jigsaw will be set in place. What's funny is that the rest of the puzzle doesn't even have a shape until the exact shape of this one piece is determined. Instead of this piece fitting into the rest of the completed puzzle, the puzzle will form around the final piece.
The piece, of course, is LeBron James. LeBron's camp announced this week that he will deliver his decision on ESPN's airwaves in an hour long special to begin at 9 ET. That ESPN so easily relinquished its primetime scheduling--even in the slowest month of the sports year--to accommodate the hoopla is staggering. After a mostly meaningless weekend full of speculation and hearsay, the chips began to fall on Monday as the rest of the free agent class decided to get a piece of the pub before "The Decision" on Thursday. After all, the likes of Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, and Chris Bosh and D-Wade do not want to compete for attention with LBJ.
Conversely, LeBron is not about to let any marquee name announce a decision after he does. No one will choose their next team based on LeBron's decision. This is LeBron's ultimate act of control over this summer: to be the finale of the entire show. Nobody is going to force his hand or cause him to settle for anything less than his first choice. He's been catered to by practically every team in the Eastern Conference and patronized by all the big stars. Although LeBron will make his decision heavily on where he wants to be, there's no doubt that he's carefully weighing the moves that have come before him this week. Though we'll never hear his camp say it, we know that he has been dependent on the movement of Amare, Wade, Bosh, and Johnson from the word "go."
So where do we stand less than a day out from the conclusion of this fascinating week? Aside from Wade and Dirk, all the big fish have found new ponds to swim in. The biggest splash was made by Bosh, who unexpectedly decided to join Wade in Miami after we learned that Toronto would agree to send him to the Cavs (teaming him with LeBron) in a sign-and-trade. For whatever reason, Bosh never liked this option despite knowing that he could play with LeBron and get a max contract from a sign-and-trade that he couldn't get by signing as free agent elsewhere. Wade's return to Miami is unsurprising in spite of some serious flirting with Chicago and the Knicks.
Stoudemire and Joe Johnson don't care about winning; they just wanted to earn max contracts so they can be mentioned with the few max players in the league. For their decisions, they will get cap-straddled teams with very little potential of getting better. But really, any team that has Johnson or Stoudemire as their #1 is going nowhere anyways. It doesn't matter who you surround them with. Congrats to the Knicks and Hawks on their big free agent catches!
Boozer quietly and smartly chose the Bulls, who are good enough to win the East as they stand WITHOUT LeBron. If LeBron puts on a Bulls' hat tomorrow night....game over. Everyone else might as well mail in the next half decade, because the Bulls will win the East for several years in a row. The Bulls might not be done, either. As they stand, Ray Allen could take their mid-level exception (about $5.5 million) and fit right into the starting lineup. If they trade Luol Deng's $9 million contract, they could trot out Derrick Rose, Allen, Joe Alexander/James Johnson, Boozer, and Jo Noah. Phew. If they rope LeBron as well, he might overtake Alexander/Johnson to start at small forward. So look out for the Bulls in '10-'11 regardless of "The Decision."
Now that LeBron has seen Bosh and Wade join up, the idea of a trio in South Beach has to be enticing. There are a guaranteed several championships on that team if he goes there. So why isn't it a slam dunk that he's going to Miami, or even a probability? Because LeBron will not ride another star's coattails, much less come remotely close to the perception that he is. Are we sure that LeBron's greatness isn't more important to him than being the best by measure of championships? Are we sure that LeBron wouldn't rather stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago where he would be the unquestioned alpha dog? Are we sure that he doesn't want to go to the worst team in the NBA (New Jersey), hang with his guy Jay-Z, hit the club with Mikhail Prokhorov, play in a new arena, and resurrect a dead franchise on his own? Are we sure he doesn't want to switch leagues, fix the Clippers, and place himself close to Kobe Bryant, if only in proximity? I'm not sure any of these things isn't true.
We'll have answers to all these questions in less than 24 hours without LeBron so much as addressing them. When he makes his choice, we'll know everything.
The piece, of course, is LeBron James. LeBron's camp announced this week that he will deliver his decision on ESPN's airwaves in an hour long special to begin at 9 ET. That ESPN so easily relinquished its primetime scheduling--even in the slowest month of the sports year--to accommodate the hoopla is staggering. After a mostly meaningless weekend full of speculation and hearsay, the chips began to fall on Monday as the rest of the free agent class decided to get a piece of the pub before "The Decision" on Thursday. After all, the likes of Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, and Chris Bosh and D-Wade do not want to compete for attention with LBJ.
Conversely, LeBron is not about to let any marquee name announce a decision after he does. No one will choose their next team based on LeBron's decision. This is LeBron's ultimate act of control over this summer: to be the finale of the entire show. Nobody is going to force his hand or cause him to settle for anything less than his first choice. He's been catered to by practically every team in the Eastern Conference and patronized by all the big stars. Although LeBron will make his decision heavily on where he wants to be, there's no doubt that he's carefully weighing the moves that have come before him this week. Though we'll never hear his camp say it, we know that he has been dependent on the movement of Amare, Wade, Bosh, and Johnson from the word "go."
So where do we stand less than a day out from the conclusion of this fascinating week? Aside from Wade and Dirk, all the big fish have found new ponds to swim in. The biggest splash was made by Bosh, who unexpectedly decided to join Wade in Miami after we learned that Toronto would agree to send him to the Cavs (teaming him with LeBron) in a sign-and-trade. For whatever reason, Bosh never liked this option despite knowing that he could play with LeBron and get a max contract from a sign-and-trade that he couldn't get by signing as free agent elsewhere. Wade's return to Miami is unsurprising in spite of some serious flirting with Chicago and the Knicks.
Stoudemire and Joe Johnson don't care about winning; they just wanted to earn max contracts so they can be mentioned with the few max players in the league. For their decisions, they will get cap-straddled teams with very little potential of getting better. But really, any team that has Johnson or Stoudemire as their #1 is going nowhere anyways. It doesn't matter who you surround them with. Congrats to the Knicks and Hawks on their big free agent catches!
Boozer quietly and smartly chose the Bulls, who are good enough to win the East as they stand WITHOUT LeBron. If LeBron puts on a Bulls' hat tomorrow night....game over. Everyone else might as well mail in the next half decade, because the Bulls will win the East for several years in a row. The Bulls might not be done, either. As they stand, Ray Allen could take their mid-level exception (about $5.5 million) and fit right into the starting lineup. If they trade Luol Deng's $9 million contract, they could trot out Derrick Rose, Allen, Joe Alexander/James Johnson, Boozer, and Jo Noah. Phew. If they rope LeBron as well, he might overtake Alexander/Johnson to start at small forward. So look out for the Bulls in '10-'11 regardless of "The Decision."
Now that LeBron has seen Bosh and Wade join up, the idea of a trio in South Beach has to be enticing. There are a guaranteed several championships on that team if he goes there. So why isn't it a slam dunk that he's going to Miami, or even a probability? Because LeBron will not ride another star's coattails, much less come remotely close to the perception that he is. Are we sure that LeBron's greatness isn't more important to him than being the best by measure of championships? Are we sure that LeBron wouldn't rather stay in Cleveland or go to Chicago where he would be the unquestioned alpha dog? Are we sure that he doesn't want to go to the worst team in the NBA (New Jersey), hang with his guy Jay-Z, hit the club with Mikhail Prokhorov, play in a new arena, and resurrect a dead franchise on his own? Are we sure he doesn't want to switch leagues, fix the Clippers, and place himself close to Kobe Bryant, if only in proximity? I'm not sure any of these things isn't true.
We'll have answers to all these questions in less than 24 hours without LeBron so much as addressing them. When he makes his choice, we'll know everything.
