Jason HeimThe Hot Stove Is Hot
December 15th 2009 19:30
Category: Other Sports
I'm back! Sorry, again, I'm a busy college student. Going to a very expensive school mandates my academic diligence, lest I upset my wonderfully supportive parents. The Guru would like to apologize for the long silence and thank you, the reader, for your continued readership and audience.
Let's get to the sports.....
If you felt a little unsatisfied with the amount of activity at last week's MLB Winter Meetings in Indy, feel free to join the club. The week was marked by a few ho-hum signings, minor deals, and one "blockbuster" trade involving (guess who?) the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks, that disappointed those of us waiting on the edge of our seats and hitting the refresh button on mlbtraderumors.com. Much speculation, rumoring, and prediction surrounded superstars like Roy Halladay, John Lackey, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday. Nothing concrete transpired with any of them at the meetings, and most remains unresolved. Monday's news, however, brought clarity and closure to the questions about where Halladay and Lackey would end up.
Halladay, long known to be a major trade piece with an expiring contract for the Blue Jays, was dealt to the Phillies in a 3-team deal that included Philly ace Cliff Lee being sent to the improving-by-the-day Mariners. Halladay to the Phillies comes as no surprise to anyone who follows baseball, but the Lee/Mariners component startled many. The Phillies and Blue Jays most likely needed a 3rd team to make the deal work because of the inability to match up players on their own. Many highly rated prospects are involved in the deal, which is still being finalized and hashed out. According to ESPN.com, the Mariners will send top prospects pitchers Phillippe Aumont and Juan Ramirez and outfielder Tyson Gillies to Philadelphia for Lee. For Halladay, the Phillies will send a couple touted prospects of their own, outfielder Michael Taylor, top minor league hurler Kyle Drabek, and catcher Travis d'Arnaud to Toronto. Along with Halladay, Toronto sends $6 million to the Phillies.
First impressions of the deal suggest that Toronto greatly reduced its asking price for Halladay based on their previous demanded returns. In essence, they receive the player they want the most in Drabek, but not incredibly much more. No top outfield prospect Dominic Brown. No J.A. Happ. This package is significantly less than what Toronto wanted at last season's trade deadline, when teams in the heat of the pennant race might be willing to fork over a little more than they should. Throw in the extra $6 million that Philly receives, and you've got one big question mark and lots of disappointed confusion for Blue Jays fans.
The "3-way" trade actually amounts to two separate trades that only involve 2 teams. There are no indications that Seattle and Toronto are exchanging anything in the deal, either directly or through Philadelphia. Writers and columnists are lauding the Mariners for the acquisition of Lee for, even though they will lose their two premier pitching prospects. The irony of Lee's tradability is his status as one of the top few starting pitchers in the league. He's been traded now twice since July, just one season removed from winning the AL Cy Young award while pitching for Cleveland. On paper, this looks like a fantastic swap for Seattle, but I am skeptical that the move has the Mariners' best long-term interests at heart.
The surprise inclusion of Lee in this deal is rooted in a fear that Lee would leave Philly when his contract runs out after 2010, or at least demand C.C. Sabathia money upon free agency. Philadelphia may not have improved itself markedly with Halladay over Lee, but they did assure themselves more than one year Cy Young caliber pitching with Halladay's fresh 3 year/$60 million extension. In summary, the Mariners are looking STRONG for 2010, but time will tell whether they mortgaged the future of their rotation for a fling with Lee.
It looks to me like the Phillies are the only team that (a didn't create more question marks for themselves or b) didn't make itself ostensibly worse in the short term. They kept a current member of their big league rotation (Happ) while not having to give up the guy that Toronto really wanted--and Philly's #1 fielding prospect (Brown). The Phillies can now throw out Halladay, Cole Hamels, Happ, Joe Blanton, and Jamie Moyer in the traditionally light-hitting National League. My imagination is running wild as to what Halladay will produce in the NL: his dominance of potent AL East lineups was clear. I can only dream of what kind of video game numbers this guy can put up while getting to face hitting pitchers 3 times per start.
Another large transaction of a frontline starter took place Monday, in John Lackey's
My mathematic training tells me that Lackey will earn $17 million per year all the way through his age 36 season. My intuition (and eyeballs) scream to me that Lackey isn't worth $12 mil, much less 15, much less 17. Boston overpaid by about $25 million over the 5 years, in my estimation, for a guy who has 1 season with more than 14 wins, one season with an ERA under 3.56, nary a 200 strikeout year, and 2 consecutive seasons began on the DL with forearm trouble in his throwing arm. To me, these are gigantic red flags and caution signs. To everyone else, apparently, they are anomalies that are easily overlooked right before committing $85 million to a 31 year old pitcher with a poor career line at Fenway Park.
Let me be clear once again: I'm absolutely ecstatic thathe got paid as much as he did, there are no negatives for me or my Angels. Either Lackey will not earn his contract on the mound, which he arguably will not, or the Red Sox will be saddled with a bloated contract that they can't wait to get off the books in the fall of 2015. Best case scenario? Both of those scenarios come true, which is 58% likely at this point in time. Let me repeat: I LOVE THIS SIGNING. I now have a new favorite player to hate in baseball, a position that A-Rod has unsatisfyingly occupied for the last few years. Boston: enjoy your glorified #2 starter who makes just $4 million less than your other top 3 starters combined.
Just a couple quick facts: John Lackey earns $6 million more than Josh Beckett for 2010. John Lackey earns $16 million more than Jon Lester for 2010. John Lackey earns roughly $2 million more than C.C. Sabathia for 2010. John Lackey earns $9 million more than Cliff Lee in 2010. John Lackey earns $13 million more than Felix Hernandez in 2010. Get the point? Here Red Sox Nation, read this and weep John Lackey's career stats
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