A Revisiting and Revising
Image Courtesy of ESPN.com
The end of the NBA regular season has come. Nearly 6 months of basketball culminated on one night, all 30 teams in play, and playoff position on the line. With the entire season under our belt of collective knowledge and experience, I'm eager to look forward and offer some predictions. First, however, I want to look back and assess my predictions from the start of the year.
In the East, I had the top 4 correct, and 5 of the top 6 with the exception of the Washington Gunmen. I had Orlando and Cleveland reversed from how they actually finished, as well as Boston and Atlanta. Miami finished 5th. I had them finishing 6th. I also flip-flopped on Charlotte and Chicago in the 7th and 8th spots. The one team I missed on was the Bucks, and I REALLY missed on them. I indefensibly predicted Milwaukee to finish dead last in the East, saying "This will not be a happy year for Bucks fans." Who knew Brandon Jennings would be so ready to handle life and competition in the NBA so soon? At any rate, with the best record in the NBA since the All-Star break, Milwaukee is not a squad that Atlanta will take lightly in the first round.
Overall, I find myself having correctly picked 7 of the 8 Eastern playoff teams, all within one spot of their actual finish. Wow. Aren't you impressed? If sports betting were legal, I could probably make a killing. Oh wait, you CAN bet on sports on the Internet? How come nobody told me this until now?
As for the West, what can we say? With OKC's victory over Memphis in Game 82, we find all 8 Western playoff teams with 50 wins. Incredible. As for my preseason prognosis on the Thunder, I did a lot of gushing about how good this team will be, and missed their rise to the playoffs just slightly. I had them 10th, and they finished 8th.
Mr. Reprehensible himself. Until he "stepped down
Picking the West at the beginning of the season is like trying to walk blindfolded through a field full of active World War I claymores. Proceed at your own risk. I tried anyway, and the results were almost directly inverted. I picked the Spurs and Blazers to finish behind the Lakers. They finished 7th and 6th, respectively. I had Dallas 4th, and they finished 2nd on the strength of a big trade and the ageless Jason Kidd. Utah I picked correctly as the 5 seed, and Phoenix slayed me with a very impressive finish to the end of their year, grabbing the 3 seed on closing night against my prediction of 6th. New Orleans would have been right around where I picked them at 7th if not for missing Chris Paul for half the season. I inexplicably managed to put the Clippers and the Nuggets in a tie for 8th, as if they'd both get in to the playoffs. Both predictions couldn't have been much further off, with the Clips sputtering to a 12th place finish and Denver grabbing the 4 seed.
So there are my predicted finishes. The East predictions were spot-on, the West ones were not. I think this outcome is symbolic for how this postseason will play out, with a lot of concentration at the top of the East, and a lot of dilution all over the West. Here are the matchups, along with my revamped predictions.
Eastern Conference First Round
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have been all over the map this season. They've had a few terrible runs, as well as some hot streaks that made you think, "Wow, the Bulls look really good. How is it possible that Vinny Del Negro has coached them to a .500 record?" The John Salmons experiment did not work out, much to Milwaukee's delight, and I think the Bulls are better off for it with Kirk Hinrich ending up with more minutes. Cleveland out-mans Chicago at every position except point guard, and should take this series easily. However, the memory of Derrick Rose in last year's heavyweight bout with Boston burns brightly in my mind. Mo Williams doesn't play much in the way of defense, so don't be surprised if Rose eats him up and makes this series interesting.
Cleveland in 5
#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats
This is an intriguing matchup that may not be as much of a lock for Orlando as expected. Charlotte kills it on defense to the tune of a league best 93.8 points allowed per game, and Orlando survives on hot shooting and high scoring. Charlotte is tough, Orlando necessarily is not with the exception of Dwight Howard. Even Dwight Howard's toughness and focus and physicality can even be legitimately questioned. If Charlotte slows down the pace and dictates the flow to Orlando, they could push the Magic to the limit in a few dogfights. Watch for Gerald Wallace's eyes to light up when he gets to the opening tip and sees Matt Barnes or Vince Carter is guarding him. Stephen Jackson has done some crazy stuff in his career. Adding an upset of a #2 seed to that list is not inconceivable to me. Orlando has as good of a chance as any to win the NBA title, but I think they can be exploited over 7 games...and I need a bold upset pick.
Charlotte in 7
#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks
Again, Atlanta will not take the Bucks lightly, given the way they've played since the break. Since trading for John Salmons, the Bucks have gone 22-8 and developed a swagger that makes them confident and dangerous. Unfortunately, they lost their franchise center Andrew Bogut, who was having a career year, for the remainder of the season to a nasty elbow injury. With him, they have a chance to take the Hawks. Without him, they have no answer for Josh Smith and Al Horford in the middle. As much of an improvement as he's been, Salmons is no matchup one-on-one for Joe Johnson, and the Atlanta bench has proved itself to be somewhat deep and reliable.
Atlanta in 5
#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Miami Heat
Let's stop and take in this sight: the Celtics barely mustered 50 wins after adding Sheed's
He should have mixed in a push up or a jog this year
Miami is hot, having won 12 of their final 13 games to sneak into the 5th spot. Flash Wade is a free agent looking for a top 3 richest contract this summer, and he has plenty of motivation to stir the pot this spring. Oh, and he's healthy too, which has always been his Achilles heel (pun intended). If Jermaine O'Neal can avoid self-destructing, Joel Anthony can change a shot and grab a rebound or two, and Udonis Haslem can hit his baseline jumper, I think Miami has a great shot at winning this thing. However, the Celtics know how to dig deep and get the job done when they have to. That is something that doesn't fade with age.
Boston in 7
Eastern Conference Semifinals
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #4 Boston Celtics
The Cavs are what the Celtics were two seasons ago: superstar in his prime who is desperate for his first ring, favored and expected to reach the Finals, short and long-term future uncertain. The Cavs have LeBron in the first of his primes and a supporting cast that may finally be adequate. The Celtics have 3 aging and suddenly overpaid superstars who don't seem to have it anymore. Everyone has seen the Celtics' downfall this year and has written them off as non-threats. Like I said before, they know how to win and they've been to the top before. However overmatched, they will not go easily. Cleveland, though, seems like they're destined to play in June.
Cleveland in 6
#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats
These are two perimeter-oriented teams with good backcourts. Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Ray Felton, Stephen Jackson, and Jamal Crawford will make for an entertaining matchup. Down low, Theo Ratliff (a) never seems to age (b) is a good neutralizer for the Hawks' deft scorers Horford and Smith. Ratliff's size and shot blocking are unmatched, and he could cause major problems for the Hawks big men. If they can't get going, this may turn into who has the best backcourt. Johnson and Co. should prove to be slightly superior to Captain Jack and his mates. If Atlanta can steal one in Charlotte, they'll sweep at home after going 34-7 at Philips Arena and have little trouble.
Atlanta in 5
Eastern Conference Finals
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #3 Atlanta Hawks
Cleveland went 3-1 in the regular season against the Hawks, handling them easily in the final two meetings. The playoffs should be more of the same. At this point, LeBron will be smelling blood as he nears his return to the NBA Finals. Cleveland will have learned from last season when Orlando blindsided them en route to a 5 game series win. I'd be shocked if LeBron allowed that to happen again, even if he has to go 1 on 5 every time down the court. He's been fantastic again statistically, but I've seen a hint of the pathological need to win that Jordan and Kobe possess, which is what currently separates them from him. Atlanta will have to play a perfect series to win, and they'll have to win in Cleveland, which I don't think they can do.
Cleveland in 6
I know, I know, picking the top seed and best team in the league is boring and predictable. My question is, who else can possibly beat the Cavs 4 out of 7 times? The answer is no one. That's why I pick Cleveland, because its sensible.
Anyways, the Western Conference playoff preview will come shortly (hopefully before the playoffs begin on Saturday).
